There’s no quick fix for soaring egg prices and their limited supply.

The bird flu is ravaging the nation’s egg-laying flock in yet another seasonal upswing for the disease, says Brian Moscogiuri, an analyst who tracks the industry for Irvine-based distributor Eggs Unlimited.Millions of infected birds have been culled, slashing the nation’s ability to keep up with demand. That shortfall will take months to repair, he says.

As a result, the average price of a dozen eggs in California on Monday was $8.97, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That’s more than double the $4.06 price at last year’s start. In 2023, amid another bird flu outbreak, the price of eggs began the year at $7.37, compared with $2.35 at the beginning of 2022 or $1.34 in 2021.

“The virus has returned nearly every spring and fall, mainly through wild migratory birds,” Moscogiuri says. “However, the scope seems to be getting broader, with more types of animals being impacted and potentially aiding the spread.”

Moscogiuri says the industry has lost 20 million hens to the flu in the past three months, depleting the nation’s typical 312 million flock. California farmers culled 9 million egg-layers in 2024’s last two months alone.

The drop came just as holiday demand was percolating.

Daniel Sumner, an agriculture professor at UC Davis, says California prices have surged sharply because state law requires cage-free living for hens. The current version of this flu has been especially rough on this type of chicken.

Nationally, consumers are paying $4.81 a dozen, according to the Urner Barry Egg Index. That’s up $3.20 — or triple — late September’s most recent low. A previous bird flu outbreak pushed U.S. egg prices to $3.07 in March 2023.

Across Southern California, egg prices vary wildly among merchants, assuming they even have any eggs to sell. Egg shelves are empty on various days everywhere, from small grocers to such chains as Trader Joe’s and Costco. Some retailers lucky to have eggs are placing limits on how many a customer can buy.

Moscogiuri notes that “elevated retail prices should help to slow demand, and ultimately allow the market to retreat, but we continue to have a real risk of avian flu into the middle of January.”

His price outlook is not encouraging, considering how slowly it took 2023’s price hike to ease.

“The country is going to need to avoid major production setbacks for four to six months for the market to normalize,” he says.

The UC Davis professor notes that food price spikes are common, but the recent flu-driven egg inflation seems different.

“Unlike all outbreaks before 2022, and there were several, this time (the flu) keeps coming back,” Sumner says. “The veterinarians do not seem to know why.”

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.