No sooner were the election results in than the stock market took off like a rocket. Recalling the gains following Donald Trump’s election in 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,500 points or 3.6% on the day after the vote.

Stocks considered Trump favorites like Tesla did much, much better. Investors believing that Elon Musk’s financial support, in-person cheerleading and online favoritism will result in favorable government treatment, pushed the stock up 40% in four days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, another Trump favorite, jumped from $69,000 to $90,000 in a week.

How likely is it that these short-term effects will last?

A look at market patterns since World War II may be instructive. There are six possible government configurations — a Democratic or Republican president, an all-Democratic Congress, an all-Republican Congress or a split Congress. Annual returns for the benchmark Standard and Poor’s 500 Index were about 16% while a Democrat was president and Republicans controlled Congress. A divided Congress with a president of either party — like we have had for the past two gangbuster presidencies — came close with returns of about 14%. A Republican Congress with a Republican president was the second worst combination with returns of about 7%. The only thing worse was a Republican president with a Democratic Congress.

For those looking ahead, history tells us that the party in power almost always loses seats in the midterm elections. Thus, Democrats will probably regain the majority in the House of Representatives in 2027. This would result in the much more favorable combination of a Republican president and split Congress.

The four-year presidential cycle is also interesting. Returns in both the year of a presidential election and the year after the election are about about 7% per year. The mid-term election is by far the worst with returns of about 3% while the pre-presidential election year is the runaway winner with returns of nearly 17%.

The usual explanation is that incoming presidents dish out the tough love early in their term. Things may get worse before they get better. But the goal is to have a booming economy by the third year in order to ensure re-election in the fourth year.

Putting the government composition and election cycles together, one might expect below average returns over the next two years notwithstanding the post-election euphoria.

Finally, here’s another fun fact. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, all the price gains made by the S&P 500 since 1950 have occurred between October and April. Returns from May to September have been slightly negative. Hence, the Wall Street expression, “Sell in May and go away.”

Of course, all the above are simply averages derived from a 70-year sample. Statistically speaking, this is hardly exhaustive and there is a great deal of internal variation. Before taking any of this too much to heart, investors should remember the story of the statistician who drowned in a river that was, on average, six inches deep.

Jeffrey Scharf welcomes your comments. Contact him at jeffreyrscharf@gmail.com.