One year ago, the Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case took away abortion rights and profoundly altered the political landscape. Even Donald Trump admits that ruling hurt Republicans in last fall’s elections, and it could have an even bigger impact next year.
More than any other issue, abortion crystalizes the Democratic argument that Republicans are “extremists,” dangerously out of touch with mainstream voters, especially women. At the same time, it shifts attention away from Joe Biden’s advanced age and physical condition.
In fact, Republicans — pushed by the party’s most radical anti-abortion-rights faction — keep handing the Democrats new ammunition. Fourteen states have passed laws restricting abortion rights since the Dobbs opinion, and the GOP’s presidential candidates are under great pressure to support a nationwide ban on all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy — a draconian proposal that is opposed by 4 out of 5 Americans, according to the latest USA Today survey.
Overall, 61% oppose the Dobbs decision, reports an NBC poll, and that includes “nearly 80% of female voters ages 18-49, two-thirds of suburban women, 60% of independents and even a third of Republican voters.”
“Without a doubt, the issue of abortion will continue to shape our country’s political and electoral landscape moving forward,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, who helped conduct the NBC survey.
Smart Republicans, who actually count votes in a general election, agree with that assessment. Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina told The New York Times that too many of her fellow Republicans “listen to some of the extreme voices, and they operate and vote and legislate out of fear. They’re not hearing from the rest of the electorate, the 95% of the folks who vote in elections. They’re hearing from the 5% who say, ‘You’re not Republican if you don’t want to ban abortions with no exceptions.’”
Trump also understands the peril of embracing those extreme voices. As CNN reports, “In this post-Dobbs world, Trump has told allies and advisers that abortion isn’t a winning campaign issue for Republicans, and that tacking too far to the right on abortion policy could end up costing him support from key voters — particularly among suburban white women.”
Historically, conservative Republicans proudly raised the banner of small government and individual freedom. As governor of California, Ronald Reagan signed a 1967 bill expanding abortion rights, and Sen. Barry Goldwater, known as “Mr. Conservative” when he ran for president on the GOP ticket in 1964, famously said, “A woman has a right to an abortion. That’s a decision that’s up to the pregnant woman, not up to the pope or some do-gooders or the religious right.”
But the Roe decision of 1973, legalizing abortion nationwide, energized the religious right and changed the whole character of conservative ideology. Instead of supporting individual choice, this new evangelical approach advocated using government power to impose moral values on others. Trump effectively tapped into this sentiment in 2016 by promising to appoint conservative judges who would overturn Roe.
But that decision turned politics on its head.
“The threat of women losing a right we’ve come to expect and rely on, after 50 years of having it, mobilized people, it enraged people,” said Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in an interview with NPR. “It coalesced people.”
The impact of that rage on politics is clear.
According to Gallup, 52% of Americans describe themselves today as “pro-choice on abortion,” a higher percentage than in the last 25 years. The same number described abortion as “morally acceptable,” matching “an all-time high” recorded last year and “10 percentage points above the historical average since 2001.”
On the abortion issue, true conservatives have lost their way. Instead of supporting less government and more liberty, they have embraced the opposite — a dictatorial “nanny state” that they have long railed against. And they are paying a big political price for betraying their own principles.
— Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.