Oil and gas producers in the U.S. will for the first time be required to pay for some of their methane emissions under a regulation the Biden administration is set to finalize Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter.

The congressionally mandated rule is the final piece of a three-part package of methane regulations that would levy penalties of $900 per metric ton for “excess” methane emissions that are above a government threshold. That fee is set to rise to $1,500 per metric ton in 2026.

U.S. officials plan to tout it as evidence of the country’s resolve to combat the potent greenhouse gas during a methane-focused meeting today at the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, according to the people who requested anonymity because the details are not public.

Yet the effort’s future is in question with the election of Donald Trump as president. He pulled out of Paris climate agreement during his last term and has vowed to unleash American energy production. Oil companies have lobbied against the levy, casting it as a tax on gas production and prodding lawmakers to undo it next year.

Cutting methane emissions is one of the most immediate steps that can be taken to slow the rate of climate change. Methane is estimated to have some 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide during the first 25 years after it is released into the atmosphere.

Although the fee was mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act, Congress left some details to Environmental Protection Agency, giving the agency discretion that the Trump administration could use to justify changes. Oil industry leaders plan to push for a rewrite.

“We will work with the new administration to fix the unworkable, infeasible or legally dubious aspects of the last administration’s policy to ensure a durable methane framework moving forward,” said Anne Bradbury, head of the American Exploration and Production Council.

Slow Progress

Under a proposed version of the regulation, energy companies that have made progress with replacing leak-prone equipment can seek exemptions, but only after state regulations are established and endorsed by the Environmental Protection Agency.

Separate federal mandates for finding and plugging leaks – unveiled with much fanfare at last year’s UN-organized COP28 — are still years from forcing changes at existing wells and oilfield equipment. The requirements effectively kick in only after the EPA approves state regulatory plans, which is potentially two years away.

A separate government program that grants private organizations authority to track down large emission releases from oil and gas sites also hasn’t got a single approved third-party participant yet, six months into its operation.

The program’s delays are connected to reviews ordered by the US EPA for organizations reporting large methane events and the technology that will be employed to detect them. The process was meant to inspire trust in the program, helping ensure reports have credibility and inspire swift action by the responsible oil companies.

The EPA has said it will vet applications expeditiously.

“EPA designed it that way to ensure that operators have confidence when they receive a notification that it is an indication of a problem that needs to be reviewed,” said Rosalie Winn, who works at the Environmental Defense Fund’s climate and energy program.

The methane regulations also have implications for the energy market. Any full-throated effort to roll back regulations could threaten future American LNG exports, especially to the European Union, which has forthcoming regulations limiting the methane intensity of fossil fuel imports.

“We are rapidly entering a world where the ability to trade gas globally is going to hinge on environmental attributes, and methane is going to be the environmental attribute that will dictate whether you get unfettered access to markets,” said Jonathan Banks, global director of methane pollution prevention at the Clean Air Task Force. “The EU import standard is the poster child of this but it’s not the only one.”