U.S. consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, welcome news for American households who remain apprehensive about the potential for tariffs to drive costs higher.

The consumer price index increased 0.2% after a sharp 0.5% advance in January, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. Excluding often volatile food and energy categories, the so-called core measure rose 0.2% as well.

The inflation rate in Los Angeles and Orange County metro area in February was 3.1%, the lowest rate since October and below the 3.4% average in 2023-24.

The respite, driven in part by a drop in prices for cars and gas, may be short-lived. Economists anticipate that an escalating trade war will drive up prices on a variety of goods from food to clothing in the coming months, testing the resilience of consumers and the broader economy.

While the CPI report is encouraging, it’s “old news” nonetheless, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “There’s no disinflation momentum right now,” she said. “We are predicting a little bit of a bump up in the coming months because of these tariffs.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nearly half of the advance in the overall CPI was due to shelter, but it still decelerated from the prior month.

Airfares fell 4%, the most since June, as several carriers warn of weaker demand ahead. Prices of new cars and gasoline also declined. Grocery prices were little changed after a big increase in January — they actually fell excluding eggs — while car and health insurance costs rose at a more moderate pace.

In an address to Congress last week, President Donald Trump described the higher prices that tariffs are expected to cause as “a little disturbance” the nation ought to be able to overcome. However, the uncertainty around his trade policy — and retaliatory measures from other countries — has led to a recent meltdown in stock markets and reignited recession fears. Trump sought to downplay those concerns on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is patiently sitting in wait-and-see mode until there’s more clarity on the administration’s actions and the inflation trajectory, with officials widely expected to keep rates steady at next week’s meeting. At the same time, growing calls for a downturn have fueled speculation that policymakers may cut rates sooner than previously thought.

“The combination of easing inflationary pressures and rising downside risks to growth suggest that the Fed is moving closer to continuing its easing cycle,” Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a note.

Some economists had been looking to this report for a first glance at the impact of Trump’s tariffs — which started with levies on all Chinese products last month and has since expanded to certain items from Mexico and Canada — on consumer prices. However, prices of core goods rose only 0.2%, and categories like furnishings, toys and televisions were also tame.

Shelter prices, the largest category within services, climbed 0.3% after 0.4% in January. Owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence — subsets of shelter — rose by a similar amount.

Excluding housing and energy, services prices advanced 0.2% after rising by the most in a year in the prior month, according to Bloomberg calculations.