Looming over baseball is a likely lockout in December 2026, a possible management push for a salary cap and perhaps lost regular-season games for the first time since 1995.

“No one’s talking about it, but we all know that they’re going to lock us out for it, and then we’re going to miss time,” New York Mets All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso said Monday at the All-Star Game. “We’re definitely going to fight to not have a salary cap and the league’s obviously not going to like that.”

Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred and some owners have cited payroll disparity as a problem, while at the same time MLB is working to address a revenue decline from regional sports networks. Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball has never had a salary cap because its players staunchly oppose one.

Despite higher levels of luxury tax that started in 2022, the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have pushed payrolls to record levels. The last small-market MLB club to win a World Series was the Kansas City Royals in 2015.

After signing outfielder Juan Soto to a record $765 million contract, New York opened this season with an industry-high $326 million payroll, nearly five times Miami’s $69 million, according to Major League Baseball’s figures. Using luxury tax payrolls, based on average annual values that account for future commitments and include benefits, the Dodgers were first at $400 million and on track to owe a record luxury tax of about $151 million — shattering the previous tax record of $103 million set by Los Angeles last year.

“When I talk to the players, I don’t try to convince them that a salary cap system would be a good thing,” Manfred told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday. “I identify a problem in the media business and explain to them that owners need to change to address that problem. I then identify a second problem that we need to work together and that is that there are fans in a lot of our markets who feel like we have a competitive balance problem.”

Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2026, and management lockouts have become the norm, which shifts the start of a stoppage to the offseason. During the last negotiations, the sides reached a five-year deal on March 10 after a 99-day lockout, salvaging a 162-game 2022 season.

“A cap is not about a partnership. A cap isn’t about growing the game,” union head Tony Clark said Tuesday. “A cap is about franchise values and profits. ... A salary cap historically has limited contract guarantees associated with it, literally pits one player against another and is often what we share with players as the definitive non-competitive system. It doesn’t reward excellence. It undermines it from an organizational standpoint. That’s why this is not about competitive balance. It’s not about a fair versus not. This is institutionalized collusion.”

The union’s opposition to a cap has paved the way for record-breaking salaries for star players. Soto’s deal is believed to be the richest in pro sports history, eclipsing Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers signed a year earlier. By comparison, the biggest guaranteed contract in the NFL is $250 million for Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

Manfred cites that 10% of players earn 72% of salaries.

“I never use the word `salary’ within one of `cap,’” he said. “What I do say to them is in addressing this competitive issue that’s real we should think about whether this system is the perfect system from a players’ perspective.”

A management salary cap proposal could contain a salary floor and a guaranteed percentage of revenue to players. Baseball players have endured nine work stoppages, including a 7 1/2-month strike in 1994-95 that fought off a cap proposal.

Agent Scott Boras likens a cap plan to attracting kids to a “gingerbread house.”

“We’ve heard it for 20 years. It’s almost like the childhood fable,” he said. “This very traditional, same approach is not something that would lead the younger players to the gingerbread house.”

viewership for HR Derby up 5%

“Big Dumper” helped drive a big boost to ratings for Monday night’s Home Run Derby.

ESPN said Tuesday that viewership for Cal Raleigh’s Home Run Derby victory was up 5% from 2024, according to Nielsen ratings. Raleigh’s win over fellow finalist Junior Caminero of Tampa Bay drew an average audience of 5,729,000 viewers, up from 5,451,000 viewers in 2024 when Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernández topped Bobby Witt Jr. in the finals.

ESPN says the combined audience on ESPN and ESPN2 peaked with 6,307,000 viewers at 9:30 p.m. ET. That made the Home Run Derby one of the most-watched programs of the day, including all broadcast and cable choices.

Raleigh’s father, Todd was his personal pitcher for the event. The Seattle catcher’s 15-year-old brother, Todd Jr., was his catcher. The elder Raleigh is a former coach of Tennessee and Western Carolina.

Raleigh, 28, became the second Mariners player to take the title, following three-time winner Ken Griffey Jr.

clark acknowledges investigation

Baseball players’ association head Tony Clark acknowledged a federal investigation into One Team Partners, a licensing company it founded with the NFL Players Association.

“We understand that there is an investigation going on right now and we have and we will continue to fully cooperate with that investigation,” Clark told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday.

The government has not commented on its probe.

OneTeam says on its website that it’s “the first multibillion-dollar company built for athletes, by athletes.” It helps license player rights for sponsorships, media content, video games and more.

Clark defended the union’s financial transparency with its members.

“An audit’s done every year,” he said. “The players as a group wanted to go through all of it. And so we went through all of it and then that group presented those findings to players at the board meeting.”