The great German statesman Otto von Bismarck is reputed to have said that “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America.” He might not have actually said that, but it captures the sense that many around the world have about America’s continuing ability to “surprise on the upside,” in the words of a businessman friend of mine. But it remains unclear whether the incumbent party, the Democrats, will be able to benefit from this good fortune.

The latest evidence for its “special providence” is that the United States appears to be doing the near-impossible: getting inflation down far and fast without triggering a deep recession. Alan Blinder, a former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, points out that, using strict definitions, the United States has been able to achieve an undeniably soft landing only once before in the past 60 years. The U.S. economy has low inflation, low unemployment, a boom in manufacturing and dominance in technologies of the future, such as artificial intelligence and gene editing. Even inequality, which has soared for decades, has recently abated.

And yet these factors are not giving the incumbent Democrats the advantage one might expect. In most polls, Donald Trump continues to lead Vice President Kamala Harris on the question of who would better handle the economy.

In the end, as I have pointed out before, this election will not be fought over economics. The most recent reminder of the political mood in the Western world comes from Germany. For many years, even as right-wing populism surged elsewhere, it did not take hold in Germany. Until last year, the small right-wing populist party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), remained marginalized. But it now looks neither small nor likely to be marginalized for much longer. It won one recent German state election (a first for a far-right party since the Nazi era), came a very close second in another state and is vying for the top spot in a third state. It has become Germany’s second-most-popular political party, after the center-right Christian Democratic Union.

As with many right-wing populist parties, the AfD’s rise can be credited to the politics of immigration. The story is a familiar one. As long as mainstream political parties turn a blind eye to immigration, they are in danger of being outflanked by the populist right.

There are strategies to blunt the populist right’s appeal. In Denmark, the centrist parties have adopted a very tough line on immigration and assimilation — tough enough to be criticized by many mainstream politicians. But the result has been that populism, which flared up in past elections, seems at bay in that country.

Immigration is not always the key issue. In Poland, the center-right party of Donald Tusk fought its election last year over the future of democracy and the country’s membership in the EU — both popular positions in that country.

But in the United States, immigration remains a core concern. In Wall Street Journal polls this year, immigration was either close to the top or at the very top of voters’ concerns, both nationally and in swing states. Harris has been able to effectively blunt some of Trump’s appeal on this issue by pointing out that he quashed a tough border protection bill mostly written by Republicans. But she might need to do more.

Many commentators argue that the Trump phenomenon is a fluke, fueled by his celebrity and almost cultlike following. Some of that is true. But right-wing populism isn’t going anywhere. It is being fueled by a deep backlash against the economic, political and cultural openness of the past few decades — and the urban elites supporting those trends.

Look beyond Europe. Look at countries such as Turkey and India, where leaders have allied themselves with those opposed to the libera elites. Look at the GOP, which now has no home for people such as George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, Paul D. Ryan and even Mitch McConnell — leaders who once defined it.

Trump could win. But even if he loses, right-wing populism is here to stay.

Email: fareed.zakaria.gps@turner.com.