The North Bay/North Coast state Senate District 2 faces a wide-open election in 2026 to select the successor to termed-out incumbent Sen. Mike McGuire, a Democrat from Sonoma County’s Geyserville.

“North Bay/North Coast” is political shorthand for the Legislature’s upper house bailiwick that includes Sonoma, Marin, Mendocino, Humboldt, Lake, Trinity and Del Norte counties.

The last three, all strongholds supporting President Donald Trump, are among the bottom quarter of the least economically successful of California’s 58 counties. By population, they are also the smallest in the district. Del Norte, on the Oregon-California border, has 20,007 residents. Sonoma and Marin, the two largest counties in the Second District, are the most prosperous. Sonoma’s population is 485,375. There are 256,400 Marinites.

The district’s partisan registration is solidly politically “blue.” Democrats account for 53.29%, while Republicans have 19.84% and “no party preference” independents are at 18.91%.

It’s essential to appreciate those demographics to understand North Coast politics.

Under California’s “top two” system, all Senate candidates run in the 2026 June primary. Then, the top two, regardless of party registration, face a runoff in November.

So far, three strong candidates have declared their candidacy. All are Democrats.

Damon Connolly represents Marin and southern Sonoma in the state Assembly. James Gore is a member of the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors. Natalie Rogers is a Santa Rosa City Council member and past mayor. The three represent the spectrum of ideologies in today’s Democratic Party.

Connolly’s current seat gives him familiarity in both Marin and Sonoma counties. The past Miller Creek School District trustee, San Rafael City Council member and Marin County supervisor was a deputy state attorney general who also worked in private legal and mediation practice.

The University of California, Berkeley graduate is a classic coastal California mainstream Democrat. He told me that his three top priorities are wildfire prevention, reforming California’s broken home insurance market and controlling runaway utilities rates.

Gore has the advantage of being well-known and respected throughout Sonoma, the largest county in the district. As the current president of the National Association of Counties, the supervisor played key roles representing the interests of county governments at the state and national levels.

In conversation, Gore emphasized his long-term support for agriculture and small business. He was former President Barack Obama’s appointee as assistant chief of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Resources Conservation Service.

A member of the Executive Committee of the Latino Caucus of California Counties, Gore is a Cal Poly San Luis Obispo grad. His supervisorial district, which extends from Santa Rosa to Cloverdale, has been hit by wildfires. Preparing for natural disasters is his priority. Rogers is a popular figure in Santa Rosa. With a population of 175,895, the Rose City is by far the largest municipality in District 2. In 2022-23, she was Santa Rosa’s first African American mayor.

She grew up in Marin and is a licensed marriage and family therapist. Here are Rogers’ campaign priorities: Housing remains a pressing issue; health care is a necessity, not a luxury; education, because public schools must be equipped to support every student, regardless of their background or zip code; and child care because parents are struggling to find reliable, affordable care.

As political economist Francis Fukuyama writes, “The only way that Trumpism can be displaced is for his opponents to offer something better … a positive program for the future.” This is the assignment for state Senate candidates and Democrats nationwide.

State Senate candidates should detail how they’d go about making state government work better. They need to avoid the usual platitudes designed to placate the special interests, including organized labor, that exert major influence on legislative Democrats.

Despite what naysayers claim, Califoirna’s private sector economy is the envy of the world. According to the International Monetary Fund, our state just passed Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world behind Germany. The quandary is how can state government advance that remarkable achievement, not hold it back.

Columnist Dick Spotswood of Mill Valley writes on local issues Sundays and Wednesdays. Email him at spotswood@comcast.net.