Republicans seem to have a knack for winning close presidential races. So far, they have won two-out-of-three nail-biters that have occurred since 2000. The consequences of two elections won by a handful of votes (2000 and 2016) have been dramatic. Consider, for example, how different our present-day America would be with a completely different set of Supreme Court justices and federal judges — had just a few votes been cast differently in those elections.

If Republicans win the presidency again this year (making it three out of four) the changes in America we have seen due to their previous successes will be taken to a whole new level (see Project 2025 goals). Democrats and others who don’t want that type of future had better plan to do some serious campaign work in this election — or send money to those who can — because this race looks to be a toss-up that could be decided by a small number of votes in a few swing states.

Obviously, there are many factors that contribute to election outcomes, but the most controllable and leveraged one is getting-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts, emphasizing person-to-person canvassing — typically door-knocking or phone-banking. Effective canvassing accomplishes three goals: 1) identifying supporters and making sure they vote, 2) recruiting volunteers and 3) converting undecided voters. Person-to-person GOTV canvassing is the gold standard for winning elections, and Republicans have learned to do it really well — a big part of why they win close elections more often than Democrats.

The first goal, getting known supporters to vote, is a smart move — it alone can win close elections by providing masses of extra votes with minimal heavy lifting.

More is needed, however, and the second goal of canvassing — recruitment of volunteers from among identified supporters — adds huge leverage. Consider this: every volunteer recruited has the potential to at least double the amount of election outreach possible by the canvasser that recruited them — and, for the rest of the campaign.

Key point: A smart canvasser doesn’t just move on after getting a supporter committed to voting — they take the next step and recruit that person as a volunteer who will do exactly what they are doing (maybe even better). Now, that’s leverage.

The final goal of canvassing — converting the undecided — takes more effort yet, but is also much higher leverage than some might expect. Consider that a solid convert has become a believer who may well subsequently convert everyone they know — including web contacts nationwide.

In these days of close elections, the party that does all this person-to-person groundwork best — especially in battleground states — wins the presidency.

Republicans, as you might guess, have been doing better at this than Democrats for some time. They were doing it better in 2000, brilliantly mobilizing their supporters in Florida — which was a true swing state at that time — while unfocused Democrats squandered their votes on Ralph Nader. Yes, the Supreme Court ultimately decided that election — but it wouldn’t have been close enough for that to happen if Democrats had rallied the troops like Republicans do.

Democrats and others who don’t step to the plate in the coming weeks and canvass in, or for key battleground states — or send money so others can, had better start preparing for a second Trump presidency — because Republicans will do the ground campaign needed to win, as they have done reliably in the past. Many Republicans are especially motivated because they also believe the 2020 election was stolen.

Democrats have a legitimate chance of winning the presidency in 2024, but only if enough of the party faithful show up to overpower similar efforts by Republicans to mobilize supporters, recruit volunteers and persuade the undecided.

In short, Democrats could win this election by learning from the Republican’s considerable success at rallying the troops and beating them at their own game.

Brad D. Segal lives in Boulder.