Fans of the Saint Mary’s men’s basketball team can relax: Their team is headed to the NCAA Tournament.

It will be an unprecedented fourth straight NCAA appearance for the Gaels.

But for every other Bay Area basketball team, getting to the Big Dance is still a reach.

Here’s our projection for how all six men’s teams fit into the NCAA Tournament picture:

Men

Cal

Record: 13-16, 6-12 (tied 13th in ACC)

NET ranking: 126

Next game: Saturday at Notre Dame (Cal played at Louisville on Wednesday night)

What matters: The Bears’ win over Boston College on Saturday clinched one of the 15 spots in the ACC tournament field. They will play a first-round game next Tuesday in Charlotte, North Carolina, and would have to win five games in five days to secure an NCAA bid.

NCAA chances: 3%

Saint Mary’s

Record: 27-4 overall, 17-1 (Won WCC regular-season title)

NET ranking: 18

Next game: Monday in WCC tournament semifinals, opponent TBD

What matters: The Gaels have won at least a share of the WCC regular-season title three straight years. They swept Gonzaga and have just one defeat since before Christmas. With a strong showing at the WCC tourney, Saint Mary’s could land a No. 6 seed in the NCAAs.

NCAA chances: 100%

San Francisco

Record: 23-8, 13-5 (3rd in WCC)

NET ranking: 62

Next game: Sunday in WCC tournament quarterfinals, opponent TBD

What matters: The Dons’ path in the WCC tourney will include a semifinal matchup against Gonzaga and a likely title-game showdown with top-seeded Saint Mary’s. A winner in seven of its past nine outings, USF handed the Gaels their only loss of the conference schedule but has lost 32 straight against Gonzaga.

NCAA chances: 15%

San Jose State

Record: 13-18, 6-13 (8th in MWC)

NET ranking: 188

Next game: Saturday vs. Fresno State

What matters: It’s been nearly three decades since the Spartans’ most recent NCAA bid. This team would have to duplicate the unexpected run by the 1996 squad, which was 10-16 before winning three in a row at the Big West tournament to land an invite. The MWC event gets started next Wednesday.

NCAA chances: 5%

Santa Clara

Record: 20-11, 12-6 (4th in WCC)

NET ranking: 51

Next game: Sunday in WCC tournament quarterfinals, opponent TBD

What matters: Shut out of the NCAA Tournament since Steve Nash was a senior in 1996, the Broncos would play in the WCC semifinals against Saint Mary’s, which has won the past eight meetings between the century-old rivals. Advancing to the title game could mean facing Gonzaga, whom the Broncos have beaten once each of the past two seasons.

NCAA chances: 20%

Stanford

Record: 19-10, 11-7 (7th in ACC)

NET ranking: 83

Next game: Saturday at Louisville (Stanford played at Notre Dame on Wednesday night)

What matters: Powered by senior Maxime Raynaud, the Cardinal has clinched its first winning season since the abbreviated 2020-21 campaign, but Stanford has not reached the NCAAs since 2014. A victory at No. 14 Louisville could help the Cardinal climb a bit closer to the bubble.

NCAA chances: 10%