DIPSEA COULD havE firST-TIME winner - Marin Independent Journal

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DIPSEA COULD havE firST-TIME winner

Former Redwood High standout MacLean among favorites

Chris Lundy wins the 113th running of the Dipsea race on June 9, 2024, in Stinson Beach. FRANKIE FROST — CONTRIBUTED

Edward Owens of San Francisco wins the 111th Dipsea race on June 12, 2022, in Stinson Beach as Teddy and Spencer Cattell hold the tape. FRANKIE FROST — CONTRIBUTED

Clara Peterson (5) of Larkspur races during the Dipsea race in Mill Valley on June 9, 2024. DOUGLAS ZIMMERMAN — CONTRIBUTED

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Who will win the 114th Dipsea Race this Sunday? To help find out, I’ll take the best actual time run by top contenders over the past two years, move a few of those times up or down where deemed appropriate, then subtract 2025 handicaps (head starts). That reveals “clock time,” the order of finish. And here’s the call.

1. Audrey MacLean, age 19 (58:39 predicted actual time, 11 minutes handicap) 47:39 clock time >> MacLean finished sixth in 2023 as a Redwood High senior. She skipped last year’s Dipsea to run in the World Juniors championships in Peru, and now, at Middlebury College, has become one of the nation’s top Division III distance runners. And MacLean unexpectedly gains a head start minute in a surprise tweak to the 2025 handicaps. (Defying logic, women age 24 now start AHEAD of women age 43.) Mill Valley’s Josh Hanna, a keen student of Dipsea handicaps, says “My money is on Audrey.” No female between age 10 and 33 has ever won.

2. Mark Tatum, age 65 (1:03:07, 15hc) 48:07 >> Colorado’s Tatum, unlike any other possible winner, gains two head start minutes. One is simply for aging a year, the other for dropping the winner’s penalty minute attached to his 2021 victory.

3. Chris Lundy, age 54 (1:02:15, 14hc) 48:15 >> Lundy is the defending champion, her third victory. That win, bringing a penalty minute, means she sets off with a smaller head start than in ’24. Lundy has amassed more Women’s Best Time trophies (9) than anyone in history.

4. Eddie Owens, age 31 (48:34, scratch) 48:34 >> Owens won in 2022. The resulting penalty minute (it holds for three years) keeps him in the scratch — zero handicap —start group. He’s favored for the Time Trophy.

5. Clara Peterson, age 41 (58:44, 10hc) 48:44 >> Last year, Peterson was runner-up overall to Lundy, and to Julia Maxwell Bailey for the Women’s Time trophy. With Maxwell Bailey sitting out due to pregnancy, Peterson will battle MacLean for a fourth Time award.

6. Cliff Lentz, age 60 (1:00:43, 11hc) 49:43 >> Lentz has won 25 black shirts (for top-35 finishes). He gains a head start minute.

7. Darrin Banks, age 59 (59:45, 10hc) 49:45 >> Banks was fourth in ’24, and has surprised with exceptional performances over the years. But his head start is unchanged.

8. Paddy O’Leary, age 37 (50:51, 1hc) 49:51 >> Ireland native O’Leary won in 2023, after finishing second the year before. So he still is burdened with a penalty minute.

9. Dominic Vogl, age 38 (51:52, 2hc) 49:52 >> Vogl leads a strong Pelican Track Club contingent vying to repeat as Team champs. They’ll get a stiff challenge from an all-women Impala team.

10. Buzz Burrell, age 73 (1:14:39, 24hc) 50:09 >> Burrell’s best was achieved when he won the Runner section in 2023. Since times in that second section are invariably slower than in Invitational due to heavier traffic, Burrell could be dangerous. Buzz’s son, Galen, twice finished among the top five, but is not entered, keeping the Barkan brothers, Brody and Amir, favorites to repeat as Family Trophy winners.

Other runners must be considered >> North Dakotan April Lund owns perhaps the most impressive road and track credentials in the field, including masters national titles and indoor records. But Lund struggled in her debut Dipsea last year, including a spectacular fall.

Alex Varner has won more Best Time awards than anyone in history. He’s training hard and is always a threat.

So, too, is Mark McManus, with three Time awards of his own and now finally back from serious health issues.

We’ll know for certain around 9:15 am Sunday morning in Stinson Beach!