The Colorado and national economies are showing signs of strain amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade agenda, but indicators from the first quarter of 2025 do not yet show that a recession is here, according to state officials and University of Colorado economists.

Data from the Colorado Secretary of State’s Quarterly Business and Economic Indicators report, which is produced with input from experts at the CU Leeds School of Business and was released on Monday for the first quarter of 2025, do “not show any immediate or significant economic disruption to Colorado (in the first quarter) of this year, but it does show that business leaders in Colorado are nervous about these interruptions (related to Trump policies) and how they could impact them,” Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold said.

“Real gross domestic product decreased at an annualized rate of 0.3% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, but was up 2% year-over-year” for the nation as a whole, according to the report.

“When we look at the data, at least to us, it’s still not signalling that we’re recessionary,” University of Colorado senior economist Richard Wobbekind said.

Colorado recorded 48,629 new business entity filings during the first quarter of 2025, up 19% from the previous quarter and up 7.7% compared with the first quarter of 2024.

“Most of these filings were for limited liability companies, and the data reflects strong entrepreneurial activity early in the year,” the report said.

Existing business renewals totaled 206,826 in the first quarter of this year, up 11.2% from the prior quarter but down 1.2% compared with the first quarter of 2024.

“Colorado’s labor market added 2,300 jobs year-over-year in March 2025. While employment grew slightly (0.1%), the state’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8%, its highest level since September 2021,” the report said.

Inflation continued to cool in Colorado, with the Consumer Price Index for the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metropolitan statistical area, often used as a proxy for the whole state, rising 1.9% year-over-year in March, slower than the national index increase of 2.4%.

Looking ahead, Wobbekind said, “it’s pretty difficult to figure out exactly where we’re going in quarter two,” with mixed data and uncertainty about federal trade policy implementation and its impacts.

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