Recent years’ ballot measures O (to renovate the downtown library and build a public plaza on Lot 4) and D (to bank the railroad tracks and build a bicycle freeway and pedestrian path) both went down to resounding defeat thanks to the organizing skills and promising propaganda of Santa Cruz political machinists. Whether the mixed-use library project or the commuter rail line will ever be built, and how much they will cost, remains mysteriously speculative. Yet promoters and enthusiasts of both projects seem to have faith that both visions of local “21st century” development will be realized, maybe even in this century.

It’s true that, as William Blake wrote, “What is now true was once, only imagined,” and that progress often begins in the imaginations of engineers and builders and designers and even politicians, but sometimes the best and most ambitious plans are thwarted by reality — most often financial reality — and never come to fruition, or get half-completed and run out of money. I’ll be reporting next month on the library’s progress, but given its three-part complexity — library and parking garage with housing on top — the rising costs of construction since 2016’s Measure S (for library renovations and reconstruction, all of which are now completed except downtown), the dwindling millions from S as yet unspent, the city’s $10 million budget deficit, the higher cost of financing and other obstacles, it’s easy to be skeptical of the city’s promises.

To state such inconvenient truths is to be accused of trying to “relitigate” arguments that have been settled by election results. But that is no less ridiculous and insulting an assertion than to say that once a politician has been elected to office, they are above criticism. In a democracy an engaged citizenry, and a free press, have a responsibility to hold the boosters accountable for false promises, to question the wisdom of self-styled visionaries, to do the math and interrogate the optimistic presumptions and projections of government officials.

In the case of the rail trail, which is an even longer shot than the library to ever materialize, there are at this point so many more questions than answers, it’s almost comical. That’s why it reminds me of a cargo cult, the legendary belief of some Indigenous desert islanders that crates of modern appliances and other conveniences of civilization will miraculously wash ashore (because they have before!). Thus far there is little evidence from the Regional Transportation Commission, the state, the feds or anyone else that there will ever be an electric commuter train on the old freight line or that enough people would ride it to make it worth the investment.

Rail trail advocates owe the public answers to the following questions: Will the rusty freight tracks need to be removed and replaced with light rail (trolley) or new commuter train tracks? If so, what was so bad about rail banking? At what speed will your trains travel? How many stops will they make and at what frequency? How many at-level crossings will there be? How many bridges must be rebuilt and at what cost? How many hundreds or thousands of trees must be cut? Who exactly will commute from South County, how long will it take and how will they get from their stops to their destinations? Above the revenue from ticket sales, who or what will pay for operational personnel and maintenance? How many sidings will be needed for northbound and southbound trains to pass on the single track? How many millions more will be spent on studies and consultants before construction can proceed beyond some segments of a trail?

These (and many more) are the kinds of reasonable, practical, commonsensical questions that anyone writing a business plan must ask, let alone anyone preparing to spend a fortune of public funds on projects of dubious viability. Those who want to shut up the skeptics need to put their mouths where our money is and explain how they’re going to do what they’ve said, how long it will take, how much it’s really going to cost and who will pay.

Stephen Kessler’s column appears on Saturdays.