When an expert faces an absolute guess, he won’t guess right more often than anyone else. An expert wins by avoiding guesses.

In today’s deal, South’s 2NT response promised 13 to 15 points with stoppers in the unbid suits. (Some pairs define a 2NT response to a minor-suit opening as invitational, a treatment I dislike.) West led the three of spades, and East took the ace and returned the nine: jack, queen.

South won the third spade and cashed dummy’s diamonds. East threw a heart, West a club. South then led a club to his queen, and West won and cashed his good spade.

South won the club return and still could have made 3NT by guessing the queen of hearts. With little to go on, he played East for the queen. Down one.

South succeeds without guessing. He wins the second spade — retaining his jack as an exit card — cashes dummy’s diamonds and exits with a spade. After West takes two spades, he must lead a heart or club, giving South a free finesse and a ninth trick.

Daily question: You hold: ? A 9 4 ? 9 8 3 2 ? 10 7 3 ? J 9 4. The dealer, at your left, opens one diamond. Your partner doubles, you respond (“advance”) one heart and he raises to three hearts. What do you say?

Answer: To pass might be correct with an untrustworthy partner. But consider how much worse your hand might be. Partner has undertaken to win nine tricks, and he doesn’t know that you have a useful ace and jack. To raise to four hearts would be reasonable.

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