California is one of the most expensive places in the U.S. to live. So it might stand to reason that continuing to raise the minimum wage would benefit workers on the lower rungs of the economic ladder.
That’s what backers of Proposition 32 on the Nov. 5 ballot say will occur if voters approve the measure. Prop. 32 would boost the state’s minimum wage from today’s $16 an hour to $18 in 2025. Employers with 25 or fewer workers would pay $17 until 2026. Further increases would be tied to the U.S. Consumer Price Index.
We recommend, however, that voters reject this increase. Here’s why:
The worst time to increase the minimum wage is when unemployment is rising. As unemployment continues to rise in the U.S., California’s unemployment rate hit 5.2% in July, and is now among the highest in the country and raising the minimum wage will likely cause some employers to trim their workforce.
To be sure, the measure would make California’s minimum wage the highest in the nation.
And consider other recent California developments on the minimum wage, which rose to $20 from $16 for fast-food workers on April 1. A July survey by the Employment Policies Institute subsequently found 98% of restaurants raised prices, 89% reduced employee hours, 73% cut staff or consolidated positions and 71% reduced overtime.
Ironically, one reason given for raising the minimum wage is to help poor workers make more. But they’re not helped if they’re laid off. And the poor in general are not helped by having to pay even higher prices.
Then came a boost in health care workers’ minimum wage to $25 an hour, that was set to hit on June 1. But estimates set the costs at $4 billion to the state for health care. Of that, $2 billion was from state funds, $2 billion from federal. On June 29, Gov. Newsom signed Senate Bill 159 to delay implementation of this boost until at least Oct. 15.
The delay in the health care workers’ minimum wage shows the real costs of any minimum wage: Higher pay has to come from somewhere. But Prop. 32 would ignore this reality by applying a higher wage to all workers. Nor does another raise in the minimum wage account for income from tips in the service industry.
Prop. 32 also would set in motion further hikes in the minimum wage. In 2026, the initiative would set the minimum wage at $18 an hour, regardless of the size of the firm. After that, the rate would once again increase with inflation adjustments up to 3.5% annually.
There’s no question California is an extremely expensive state. Santa Cruz County is one of the most expensive places in the entire country to live. Raising the minimum wage would likely increase prices that will affect lower-income workers in particular, although the nonpartisan state legislative analyst pegs the increases at less than 0.5%.
But raising costs to businesses by force is not the way to help people get by. This raise would still be far below the needed income for most workers to afford Santa Cruz County’s outrageously high rents, for example. And as wages go up, so do prices and the cycle just continues to escalate.
If the goal is to help low-wage workers get by, the better focus is on reducing the cost of living in the aptly named Golden State.
Obviously, the state needs to reduce the cost of housing, in particular by reforming the California Environmental Quality Act and loosening onerous regulations while also cutting fees. More sensible energy policies are also needed to keep down high energy bills and sky-high gas prices. Tax cuts and deregulation could help incentivize job creators in sectors like manufacturing to continue expanding. And, finally, more school choice and equitable funding for schools in lower income districts would improve education so young people start out with better economic prospects.
Instead, this measure, while well-intended, is a flawed way to deal with deeper problems that will not be solved by simply mandating higher wages.
Vote No on Prop. 32.