President-elect Donald Trump has yet to be sworn in, but Democrats have already begun jockeying to see who could emerge in pole position for the 2028 election.

Despite Democrats’ claims to have a deep bench, there is really only one with enough of a national profile to be considered a potential front runner: California Governor Gavin Newsom.

To be sure, while Vice President Kamala Harris would theoretically be the presumed front runner, her loss to Donald Trump raises doubts as to Harris’ future viability, and even her aspirations.

Of course, this is not to disparage Harris, who stepped into an unprecedented role after President Biden withdrew from the race in late July. According to post-election polling from Emerson, Harris was the top choice among Democrats for 2028 (37%), well ahead of Newsom (7%).

And yet, this far out from 2028, Harris’ lead is almost entirely due to name recognition, rather than a genuine desire for her to run again or a belief that she is even the best candidate to lead the party forward.

A considerable share of Democrats seem to recognize this. Nearly 4 in 10 (36%) Democrats said they prefer someone other than Harris be “a leading voice for Democrats,” per Echelon Insights polling.

Moreover, there are questions as to whether or not Harris is even interested in another presidential bid. The Hill has reported that some Democratic insiders believe she will seek an office closer to home — governor of California — in 2026.

Even if Harris does opt to run again, it’s legitimate to ask how she would do in a genuine primary.

Having flamed out in 2020 and not facing one this year — a possible contributor to her defeat — it’s unlikely that she is strong enough to clear out what could be a very crowded Democratic field.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland, Jared Polis of Colorado and JB Pritzker of Illinois are all rumored to be exploring running — and outgoing Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has received some support — although none of them have the national profile Newsom does.

Further, with Newsom positioning himself as the leader in Democrats’ impending fights with the Trump administration, his profile seems set to rise exponentially within the party.

Importantly, while promising to lead the “resistance” against Trump where necessary, Newsom has also made clear that he is open to working with the incoming president, likely hoping to come off as willing to put the common good over a “resistance-at-all-costs” approach.

Since mid-2023 — when doubts around Biden’s fitness for a second term began to emerge — Newsom has been doing everything possible to lay the groundwork for a potential run in the future, something I noted in these pages on multiple occasions, beginning in August of that year.

Indeed, starting with his fiery and energetic defense of the Biden-Harris administration and his willingness to debate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Newsom made it clear that he had his eyes set on a national role.

Similarly, in that debate and ever since, Newsom took steps to portray himself as a more centrist Democrat who is willing to break with Biden or those within his own party.

Newsom was one of the first high-ranking Democrats to express disappointment with Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter, and he has strongly defended Israel to the dismay of progressives.

In the debate with DeSantis, Newsom emphatically agreed with the Florida governor about the scope of the problem at our Southern border, something Biden and Harris were unable to do effectively.

He is also a prolific fundraiser. Without facing a reelection himself, Newsom set up a PAC to support other Democrats and raised more than $20 million, spending all of it to support Democrats in other states.

To be clear, this is not to say Newsom won’t have to overcome considerable obstacles if he wants to win his party’s nomination in 2028.

While his debate with DeSantis showed his oratorical skills and ability to handle contentious debates — which both Biden and Harris sorely lacked — he is open to accusations that he is glib, given his record in the state.

Within California, one-half (49%) of likely voters said they held an unfavorable view of Newsom, according to polling from AtlasIntel, and a 2021 recall effort, while ultimately unsuccessful, did garner enough signatures to force a vote.

As governor, Newsom has burdened Californians with incredibly high taxes and overbearing climate and energy regulations.

And the state’s runaway spending under Newsom has caused the non-partisan Legislative Analyst’s Office to project rapidly expanding budget deficits, reaching more than $25 billion by 2027-2028.

On a more macro level, perhaps the greatest obstacle to Newsom’s front-runner status is that he would do little to address Democrats’ biggest problem from the 2024 election: the party’s struggles with working-class voters.

Newsom, a wealthy, coastal elite governor from the country’s liberal stronghold, is unlikely to draw working class voters back to the party, even if his fiery rhetoric would make him a compelling opponent to Donald Trump’s GOP successor.

Put another way, Newsom is the Democratic establishment personified, and voters have made it clear that, in the current environment, they do not want the establishment.

It is also worth noting that the last two-term Democratic president — former President Barack Obama — was not really on people’s radar at this point ahead of the 2008 election.

As such, it is entirely possible that someone such as newly elected Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego emerges as a front-runner.

Ultimately, history has shown that predicting a party’s presidential candidate three years out is nearly impossible. And whether or not Newsom can overcome the challenges he will face in a primary and a potential general election remains to be seen.

Although at this stage, given Democrats’ dearth of candidates with a national profile, it is undeniable that Newsom is the frontrunner.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.