Where are we heading
Villagers of Naqarawai queue up to cast their votes in Namosi early this month. Picture: ELIKI NUKUTABU
THE 2018 General Election results present some interesting forces at work within our polity. There are also possible implications for the next general elections in 2022.
FijiFirst party’ has lost five seats compared to what they had going into the elections but form the government on a very slim margin with 27 seats. The National Federation Party (NFP) still has three having neither lost nor gained any SODELPA has gained six seats despite FijiFirst losing only five because there are 51 seats in Parliament now rather than 50.
This is where SODELPA’s gain has been, iTaukei voters appearing to be leaving FijiFirst for SODELPA. At the same time, FijiFirst has further strengthened its stronghold among Fijians of Indian descent voters. The ethnic cleavage in voting is clearly obvious.
For FijiFirst, overall there is a clear message. Its majority is down to 50.02 per cent from 59.5 per cent it had in 2014. It seems that FijiFirst has lost voters to SO- DELPA. It is fair to assume that SODEL- PA’s gains have come from iTaukei voters.
Of course, there might be new voters and those moving across both ways but these have unlikely played any significant role in the outcomes.
SODELPA’s message and campaigning seems to have worked well in not only maintaining their support from 2014 intact but also convincing Fiji First supporters to move across to them.
Fundamentally, SODELPA’s gain has come from a few strategies, one of which has been continuously advocating bringing back and strengthening existing indigenous Fijian institutional arrangements.
At the same time, demographic changes since 2014 have favoured SODELPA.
For 2022, it is expected that SODELPA will continue with its focus on indigenous issues. At the same time, demographic changes such as iTaukei voting population relative to other ethnic communities will continue to favour SODELPA as we move into the future. As a result, SODELPA is expected to cement its grip on iTaukei support.
It is also worthy to note that SODELPA has been able to harness the power of Sitiveni Rabuka despite the internal issues with its leadership. The leadership issues spilled over into the public, which at times looked like it would damage SODELPA at the polls. It did not happen.
Nonetheless, looking at SODELPA’s performance in this election, any change in leadership in the future is unlikely to reduce its iTaukei voter pulling strength.
If this trend of voting along ethnic line continues, SODELPA is expected to strengthen as Fiji moves into the future.
As the voting population of Fijians of Indian descent continues to fall, SODELPA will not have any reason to change its current strategy.
Under a scenario where Fijians of Indian descent voters fall to, say 40 per cent of the voting population, SODELPA will be able form government on its own by getting about 85 per cent of iTaukei votes.
It will not need the support of any other party nor votes from Fijians of Indian descent voters to gain a majority. This could happen as early as 2022.
This presents a challenging scenario for both FijiFirst and NFP. For FijiFirst, the challenge is how to attract more iTaukei support than it appears to have received in 2018. This will not be easy for FijiFirst given its current stance.
NFP, on the other hand, was supposed to have collected votes from both sides of the ethnic divide sufficient to hold the balance of power between FijiFirst and SODELPA.
While it received more iTaukei votes compared with 2014, it lost some of its Fijians of Indian descent support.
NFP’s conundrum has been a complex one. It is trapped between the pitfalls of two large ethnic divides where striking a neat balance will be difficult as long as FijiFirst continues to threaten Fijians of Indian descent of a SODELPA government.
FijiFirst continued to demonise SODEL- PA in the eyes of Fijians of Indian descent voters. More fuel to the fire was added by some media organisations with talkback shows that continued to highlight the incidents of 1987 and 2000 coups upon the Indian community while glamourising the 2006 coup.
NFP’s policies offered living wages of $5 an hour, tenure contract for civil servants, reduction of VAT to zero on a list of items and conversion of tertiary education loans to grants for those from low income households.
These were supposed to find their way across to families, workers and young people alike. It seems this had minimal impact, if any at all.
Ethnicity and the fear of change outweighed all these among Fijians of Indian descent while iTaukei voters sought solace in SODELPA.
With limited resources, SODELPA and NFP attempted to compete for power against the positive incumbent effect. FijiFirst had more information regarding figures, had been meeting and helping the people as the government and had more media exposure. It was able to use these to bolster its campaign. Our politics has been characterisd by ethnic tensions since independence.
Today, we stand as divided as ever in terms of how we vote.
The rhetoric of voters asking who to vote for and what to vote for remains mostly grounded in ethnic considerations.
When political alliances are made along ethnic lines, politics will be split on ethnic divide. Unless political parties realise this, Fiji is headed in that direction.
•�The views expressed are the author’s and not those of The Fiji Times or of USP.
FijiFirst party’ has lost five seats compared to what they had going into the elections but form the government on a very slim margin with 27 seats. The National Federation Party (NFP) still has three having neither lost nor gained any SODELPA has gained six seats despite FijiFirst losing only five because there are 51 seats in Parliament now rather than 50.
This is where SODELPA’s gain has been, iTaukei voters appearing to be leaving FijiFirst for SODELPA. At the same time, FijiFirst has further strengthened its stronghold among Fijians of Indian descent voters. The ethnic cleavage in voting is clearly obvious.
For FijiFirst, overall there is a clear message. Its majority is down to 50.02 per cent from 59.5 per cent it had in 2014. It seems that FijiFirst has lost voters to SO- DELPA. It is fair to assume that SODEL- PA’s gains have come from iTaukei voters.
Of course, there might be new voters and those moving across both ways but these have unlikely played any significant role in the outcomes.
SODELPA’s message and campaigning seems to have worked well in not only maintaining their support from 2014 intact but also convincing Fiji First supporters to move across to them.
Fundamentally, SODELPA’s gain has come from a few strategies, one of which has been continuously advocating bringing back and strengthening existing indigenous Fijian institutional arrangements.
At the same time, demographic changes since 2014 have favoured SODELPA.
For 2022, it is expected that SODELPA will continue with its focus on indigenous issues. At the same time, demographic changes such as iTaukei voting population relative to other ethnic communities will continue to favour SODELPA as we move into the future. As a result, SODELPA is expected to cement its grip on iTaukei support.
It is also worthy to note that SODELPA has been able to harness the power of Sitiveni Rabuka despite the internal issues with its leadership. The leadership issues spilled over into the public, which at times looked like it would damage SODELPA at the polls. It did not happen.
Nonetheless, looking at SODELPA’s performance in this election, any change in leadership in the future is unlikely to reduce its iTaukei voter pulling strength.
If this trend of voting along ethnic line continues, SODELPA is expected to strengthen as Fiji moves into the future.
As the voting population of Fijians of Indian descent continues to fall, SODELPA will not have any reason to change its current strategy.
Under a scenario where Fijians of Indian descent voters fall to, say 40 per cent of the voting population, SODELPA will be able form government on its own by getting about 85 per cent of iTaukei votes.
It will not need the support of any other party nor votes from Fijians of Indian descent voters to gain a majority. This could happen as early as 2022.
This presents a challenging scenario for both FijiFirst and NFP. For FijiFirst, the challenge is how to attract more iTaukei support than it appears to have received in 2018. This will not be easy for FijiFirst given its current stance.
NFP, on the other hand, was supposed to have collected votes from both sides of the ethnic divide sufficient to hold the balance of power between FijiFirst and SODELPA.
While it received more iTaukei votes compared with 2014, it lost some of its Fijians of Indian descent support.
NFP’s conundrum has been a complex one. It is trapped between the pitfalls of two large ethnic divides where striking a neat balance will be difficult as long as FijiFirst continues to threaten Fijians of Indian descent of a SODELPA government.
FijiFirst continued to demonise SODEL- PA in the eyes of Fijians of Indian descent voters. More fuel to the fire was added by some media organisations with talkback shows that continued to highlight the incidents of 1987 and 2000 coups upon the Indian community while glamourising the 2006 coup.
NFP’s policies offered living wages of $5 an hour, tenure contract for civil servants, reduction of VAT to zero on a list of items and conversion of tertiary education loans to grants for those from low income households.
These were supposed to find their way across to families, workers and young people alike. It seems this had minimal impact, if any at all.
Ethnicity and the fear of change outweighed all these among Fijians of Indian descent while iTaukei voters sought solace in SODELPA.
With limited resources, SODELPA and NFP attempted to compete for power against the positive incumbent effect. FijiFirst had more information regarding figures, had been meeting and helping the people as the government and had more media exposure. It was able to use these to bolster its campaign. Our politics has been characterisd by ethnic tensions since independence.
Today, we stand as divided as ever in terms of how we vote.
The rhetoric of voters asking who to vote for and what to vote for remains mostly grounded in ethnic considerations.
When political alliances are made along ethnic lines, politics will be split on ethnic divide. Unless political parties realise this, Fiji is headed in that direction.
•�The views expressed are the author’s and not those of The Fiji Times or of USP.