Don’t count on that Black Friday bargain.

This holiday season, stores will compete on availability, not price. With shoppers buoyant (for now), there’s little need to simulate demand, while supply shortages and higher shipping and labor costs will push retailers to protect margins. That all adds up to fewer doorbusters.

Already there’s evidence that deals won’t be so plentiful. Stacey Widlitz of SW Retail Advisors tracks 60 chains across the U.S. and Europe. At more than 90% of them, she says, promotions are down compared with 2020, when they were already being reined in. Data from IRI show not only fewer special offers across most major U.S. non-food categories than in 2019, but also shallower discounts.

There’s still time for TVs and bath towels to hit shelves before Thanksgiving. But in the U.S., availability in hot categories such as electronics and toys is already patchy. Toys are a flashpoint in Britain too, due to logjams at the busy port of Felixtowe.

Big retailers such as Walmart and Target are best positioned to weather the supply crisis, as they can place vast orders earlier than other stores and even charter their own shipping vessels. But smaller chains may struggle to secure enough stock. That doesn’t bode well for choice, or a frenzy of special offers.

Even without clogged supply lines there’s another good reason for sellers to scale back Black Friday: to avoid a pile-up of online orders.

Although digital demand has fallen as malls and high streets have reopened, it is still running higher than before the pandemic. U.S. online retail sales are expected to be up almost 60% between now and Christmas eve, compared with 2019, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. A surge in deal-hunting on laptops and mobiles would put enormous strain on warehouses and delivery networks, even before factoring in labor shortages. One way to cope is to offer more curbside pick-up; another is to diffuse demand over a longer period.

Fortunately for stores, it looks like consumers are already adapting. People are heeding chains’ advice to buy early to avoid disappointment. Some 51% of the Americans surveyed by the NPD Group plan to start their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving.