The US economy is still stronger than Federal Reserve officials expected a year and a half into their inflation fight — leaving policy makers waiting for more data to scrutinize its moves to ease prices and see how much harder it will have to push.

After scrambling to hoist rates in 2022 and early 2023, the central bank is moving much more cautiously so policy makers have time to see how inflation, the job market, and economic growth respond. That newfound patience gave the Fed cover to leave rates unchanged Wednesday. But most officials still think they’ll need to trigger one more hike before the end of the year.

The goal now is to make sure the Fed gets borrowing costs to the right level — even though no one knows exactly what that level should be or how long to stay there.

“We want to see convincing evidence, really, that we have reached the appropriate level,’’ Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference Wednesday. “We’ve seen progress, and we welcome that. But we need to see more progress before we’ll be willing to reach that conclusion.’’

The meeting left the Fed’s baseline policy rate, known as the federal funds rate, at a level between 5.25 and 5.5 percent. Officials had telegraphed the decision ahead of time, leaving rates at the highest level in 22 years.

Markets slid on Powell’s remarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 76.85 points, or 0.22 percent. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.94 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.53 percent.

The economy has been remarkably difficult to read in real time, and the central bank continues to find its way without a playbook in the wake of the pandemic and amid the war in Ukraine, among other unusual shocks from the past few years. But overall, the signs point to stronger growth, more consumer spending, and a tighter labor market than the Fed expected just a few months ago.

Now, policy makers expect the economy will grow 2.1 percent this year, up significantly from the 1 percent forecast just a few months ago, according to a fresh crop of projections released at the end of the Fed’s two-day meeting. Policy makers also improved their expectations for the job market, penciling in an unemployment rate that stays at the current level of 3.8 percent, down from a previous forecast of 4.1 percent.

That picture has helped bolster economists’ hopes that there won’t be a recession soon. But the flip side of consistently strong growth means the Fed’s aggressive rate hike campaign has not managed to fully cool the economy. The result: Inflation could stay higher than normal, and the central bank might need to keep rates higher for longer. Already, officials expect fewer rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 than their earlier estimates.

Zoomed out, the paradox presents a tricky challenge. Fed officials want to preserve the economy’s signs of strength. But they must also ensure they’ve done enough to vanquish inflation, even if that means slower growth and a weaker job market.

“It’s a good thing that the economy is strong,’’ Powell said. “It’s a good thing that the economy has been able to hold up under the tightening that we’ve done. It’s a good thing that the labor market is strong.’’

For months, Powell and other Fed officials have hesitated to say definitively whether they expect to avoid a recession. Powell stuck to a similar script on Wednesday, saying he “wouldn’t want to handicap the likelihood’’ of what’s known as a “soft landing.’’

But the projections, which are revised every three months, increasingly show officials’ expectations that they can pull it off.

“Yes, they need to keep interest rates higher for longer than they expected because of growth, but that’s as good a soft landing as you’re going to get,’’ said Tim Duy, chief US economist at SGH Macro Advisors and a Fed expert at the University of Oregon. “You got inflation back down on a path to price stability without generating any real significant increase in unemployment. That’s the story there.’’

The Fed’s job is to control consumer prices and help the job market grow. But that mission has been compromised again and again by a swirl of factors beyond the bank’s control. Energy and oil prices are rising again, as Saudi Arabia and Russia cut production, pushing gas prices and overall inflation back up. On Capitol Hill, the Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government and avert a shutdown is inching closer. But Republican leaders are still trying to appease hard-right members of their party and get a stopgap funding measure out of the House.

Meanwhile, United Auto Workers union leaders are threatening to expand a historic strike against Detroit’s Big Three automakers unless there’s “serious progress’’ toward an agreement. The union is seeking higher pay, broader benefits, and better job protection as the car industry shifts toward electric vehicles. Cars aren’t immediately expected to become more expensive. But a longer strike would have more impact for consumers.

Plus, student loan payments are set to resume in October, squeezing the budgets of millions of families and workers even more.

There’s no clear indicator of how these factors will weigh on the macroeconomy.

“You’re coming into this with an economy that appears to have significant momentum. And that’s what we start with,’’ Powell said. “But we do have this collection of risks.’’

Now the Fed’s internal debate revolves around whether to hold rates steady or keep pushing them up later this year. Much will depend on how the economy evolves over the next few months — and whether any new shocks thwart the Fed’s careful examination of the post-COVID world.

“They clearly don’t want to declare victory early, even though they’ve made great progress,’’ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “They themselves are surprised. But how much spillover do you get from diesel fuel going up? There’s uncertainty about how wide strikes could be, or a government shutdown. This is all noise they have no control over.’’

In many ways, the Fed’s fight to slow down an overheated economy has turned out better than expected. The markets, businesses, and individual households have absorbed high rates without the country crashing into a recession. Employers are still hiring — and at a more sustainable pace. Consumers continue spending money on vacations, concert tickets, and dining out, and there’s little indication that the spigot will shut off anytime soon.

But the Fed has made clear that there is more work to do on prices. Inflation has eased significantly since peaking at 9.1 percent last summer, and came in at 3.7 percent in August. Still, that marked the second-straight bump in the annual inflation rate, which underscored officials’ warnings that zapping persistent price growth will not be a smooth process.

Through it all, many Americans still feel gloomy about the economy, according to national polls and surveys. Officials still want to show what they’ve done to tame inflation and emerge from the pandemic — while recognizing that many people aren’t feeling a difference in their daily lives.

“Concerns about inflation are still something that I hear when I talk to people,’’ Boston Fed President Susan Collins told The Washington Post last month. “From my perspective, what price stability means is a level of low, stable prices where people aren’t really focused on it. … And people are still quite focused on it.’’