JERSEY’S short-term carbon neutral targets are not achievable, a think-tank has warned.

In its latest briefing document, Policy Centre Jersey has reviewed the Island’s energy supply and consumption, and cast doubts on whether targets set by the government – and stepping stones towards the ambition to deliver net-zero emissions by 2050 – can actually be met.

Currently, the Island aims by 2030 to have no new petrol-driven cars and light vans registered, to have 67% of all vehicles, and 75% of domestic and 50% of commercial fossil-fuelled boilers decarbonised.

But PCJ comments: “These are challenging targets and the evidence suggests that they are not capable of being met. They are also costly.

“The roadmap states that the minimum direct cost for the government to implement fully the identified policies is £215 million.

“There is no indication of the costs for consumers or businesses, nor is there any analysis of what will be required to achieve the targets.”

It says that the extent of the challenge is evident by looking at the example of heat pumps, which cost £10,000 to install.

“Assuming 10,000 boilers are replaced by heat pumps by 2030, the total cost would be £100 million.

A subsidy is envisaged but, of course, the cost of the subsidy would be met by the Jersey public through taxation,” the briefing paper notes.

Placing the government’s ambitions in the context of energy consumption, PCJ notes that there has been a 44% fall since the mid- 90s and a significant shift from oil-generated electricity to nuclear and hydro-power.

The cost of the Island’s electricity is 10% to 20% lower than in Guernsey and the Isle of Man, and a third below the UK, thanks to the long-term agreement between Jersey Electricity and EDF.

But that agreement expires in 2027 when it will be renegotiated at market rates, which is a factor in the Island’s ambition itself to become an energy supplier through a wind farm.

However, PCJ cautions against assuming that this would be financially advantageous.

“It remains to be seen how this will develop, but it does not follow automatically that this would result in cheaper electricity; that would depend on market circumstances at the time,” it says.

The briefing paper identifies four “big issues” for the Island: how to reduce use of fossil fuels for transport and heating; how the 25% increase in peak electricity demand predicted by JE to meet the 2050 net-zerotarget will be met; whether the government will require JE to buy its electricity from the wind farm; whether there is scope for Jersey and Guernsey to collaborate on energy strategy.

PCJ is holding a breakfast meeting on energy at 8am on Thursday 26 September when Sir Mark Boleat will present a summary of the policy brief document.

Tickets are available at: eventbrite.com/e/energy-event-tickets-1010278128077.