FOXBOROUGH — The question being debated across the country today: Is Tom Brady the 2017 NFL Most Valuable Player?
But maybe the question instead should be: Is there something wrong with Tom Brady?
It sounds strange at first. The Patriots’ 40-year-old quarterback is the Las Vegas favorite to win his third MVP award, his team has won 10 of its last 11 games, and Brady just needs to defeat the Jets on Sunday to wrap up another No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
But Brady’s march to more hardware and another Super Bowl ring has been turbulent of late.
In four games in December, Brady has more interceptions than touchdowns (5-4) and a passer rating of 81.5 — good for 19th-best in the NFL, and lower than such noted gunslingers as Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. Jimmy Garoppolo has outperformed Brady in almost every statistic.
Go back an extra week, and Brady has thrown an interception in five straight games (six total), the first time he has done so since Weeks 2-6 in 2002.
And he has gone five straight games without 300 passing yards for the first time since Weeks 1-5 in 2014.
“You’re right, there’s been more in the last couple of games than there should be,’’ Brady said Friday of his interceptions. “If they make a great play, then they make a great play. But you try to eliminate the ones where you just really hand them possession of the ball.’’
Is Brady starting to hit a wall this season? Has the Achilles’ injury (and as of this week, left shoulder injury) that’s on the injury report slowed him?
“There’s plenty of things that go into those plays being turnovers, and it’s certainly not just the quarterback,’’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said. “I think of it more as a team statistic.’’
For a truly unbiased opinion, we turned on the All-22 coaches tape and watched all 201 plays involving Brady over the past five games — every pass attempt, sack, scramble, kneeldown, and play called back by penalty.
Here are our observations:
■ Let’s break down the six interceptions. There are a few themes.
The most glaring is that all six have come on third down. The Patriots are struggling in general on third down, converting just 18 for 55 (32.7 percent) in the past five games, well below the league average of 38.6 percent.
I asked coach Bill Belichick if Brady has more leeway to gamble on third down.
“I don’t think Tom wants to throw them on any down,’’ Belichick said. “I think we just have to do a better job of coaching and executing the plays, making our reads and throwing the ball. We all need to do a better job on those plays. That’s not what we’re looking for. We’re not making excuses for why they happened. We just didn’t do a good enough job.’’
Two interceptions were cases of Brady trying to extend plays with his feet instead of throwing the ball away or taking a sack.
In Week 13 against the Bills, Brady shuffled around the pocket to buy time for Rob Gronkowski to work his way open toward the sideline on a school-yard type play. But Brady didn’t get enough air under the ball, and Tre’Davious White intercepted it. In Week 15 against the Steelers, Brady stayed in the pocket too long, got hit while throwing, and threw a wobbler over James White’s head that was intercepted by Vince Williams. It looked as though Brady was trying to get the ball to Gronk, but couldn’t get enough on the throw because of the hit.
Taking a hit also caused an interception in Week 12 against the Dolphins at home. The Dolphins blitzed five, and Brady was hit as he threw over the middle to Danny Amendola in tight coverage. Brady short-armed his throw, giving cornerback Bobby McCain time to undercut the route and intercept the pass.
Two interceptions were simply cases of Brady chucking up prayers. Both came against Miami, and both were intercepted by Xavien Howard — a deep ball to Brandin Cooks in the first quarter that was underthrown, and another deep ball to Cooks on third and 16 in the third quarter. Cooks actually had a step on that one, but Brady put too much air under the ball.
And the sixth interception was a case of Brady being fooled by the defense. Last week against Buffalo, the Bills showed a Cover 2 look before the snap, but dropped into a Cover 3. Brady never saw safety Jordan Poyer sneak into the short middle zone of the defense, and Poyer jumped the slant route to Kenny Britt for an interception and touchdown return.
So none of the themes came up as consistent problems.
If anything, Brady needs to be more cautious about extending plays with his feet, and be more willing to throw the ball away.
■ But even that’s not fair, because Brady has made some excellent throws in recent weeks when buying time in the pocket.
In the fourth quarter against Pittsburgh, he looked right, moved the safety out of the middle of the field, stepped up, and hit Gronk over the middle for a big 26-yard gain. On the next snap, Brady ducked out of the rush, threw on the run, and hit Gronk in stride for a clutch 17-yard gain.
And back in Week 12, Brady danced in the pocket, waited for Gronk to work his way open, threw against his body, and had a nice 21-yard completion on third and 7.
Brady is still moving well, and if his Achilles’ is bothering him, he’s not showing it.
■ Brady did take a noticeable pounding in that Week 12 home game against Miami, however. He showed up on the injury report four days prior to that game, and couldn’t have felt much better after taking several shots from Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake. Brady has been on the injury report with the Achilles’ and now left shoulder, and we’ve seen him grimace while looking at his throwing hand a few times. When asked if the left shoulder injury is new or something he’s dealt with, Brady answered, “That’s a tricky question. I’ll pass, but I’ll be out there Sunday.’’
■ One major trend: The Patriots are facing a healthy amount of press-man coverage. The Steelers went man-to-man pretty much the entire game. So did the Dolphins in the rematch in Miami. The Bills used a decent amount of press-man in the first game in Buffalo. It says that those defenses don’t respect the Patriots’ ability to get off the line of scrimmage and fight off tight coverage.
Against the Bills and Steelers, Brady had Gronkowski to bail him out. Gronk was the only player who could consistently get separation — or, more pointedly, catch the ball in traffic. Gronk’s one-handed touchdown grab on the sideline fade over Micah Hyde last week was incredible. And Brady’s bread-and-butter play has become the play-action throw to Gronk over the middle, which he seems to catch for 18 yards every time.
But Brady didn’t have Gronk against Miami, and that was all the difference. Cooks and Chris Hogan couldn’t get open. The Dolphins also blitzed heavily, getting Brady out of sorts. He didn’t see the field well, wasn’t setting his feet, and ended up just chucking the ball down the field and hoping for a miracle. He did that five times, connecting once with Cooks.
For the most part, Brady has been at his best when he can stick to the script and make his throws in rhythm. And that generally only happens when Gronkowski is the target.
■ Over these five games, here are Brady’s stats when targeting Gronk: 28 of 37 (75.7 percent), 116 yards per game, three TDs, one INT, 133.0 passer rating. When targeting everyone else: 78 of 127 (61.4 percent), 155.2 yards per game, five TDs, five INTs, 75.4 passer rating.
■ Amendola has been OK. He’s clutch and knows how to work his way open over the middle, but can only give 30-40 snaps a game, and is too small to be running deep seam routes. Phillip Dorsett has been open, but Brady rarely looks his way. Cooks has caught only 15 of 29 targets the last five games, and is averaging just 43 yards per game. Dwayne Allen is nothing more than a check-down receiver. Hogan played in just one of those five games, and he clearly wasn’t 100 percent.
Rex Burkhead missed 1½ games, James White and Gronk one game each. The Patriots need to get those players healthy for the playoffs, because the other sidekicks aren’t getting it done.
■ Brady hasn’t been hitting the deep ball. It was a big part of the Patriots’ arsenal early this season, and defenses are adjusting. We charted passes that traveled at least 25 yards in the air. Brady hit 7 of 14 in these five games, but his long was only 43. And he’s only hit three of his last 10. The Miami game was really bad, just 1 for 5. Teams are making the Patriots earn their yards.
■ Brady is also seeing a lot of traffic in the short middle portion of the field. Only once in the five games did Brady face heavy blitzing — the second Miami game — and instead defenses are dropping extra defenders into the short middle of the field to defend against Gronk and Amendola. The tactic worked well for the Falcons last season in the Super Bowl, and it is working well again for Patriots opponents.
■ We counted eight “bad throws’’ over the five games — throws that make you scratch your head and say, “What the heck?’’
Six came in the loss to the Dolphins, when Brady had no answers without Gronk. He threw up four deep balls that had no chance. He also hit Amendola in his shoes on a slant pass. Last week against Buffalo, Brady had Gronk wide open across the middle, and threw behind him. Brady had time, there was no one in his face, and Gronk was open. Brady just missed him.
■ But Brady has also made up for it with more than a few unbelievable throws. The ridiculous back-shoulder fade to Gronk for the touchdown last week. The three throws to Gronk over the middle for 69 yards on the final drive in Pittsburgh. The 20-yard wheel route to Dion Lewis down the sideline with a Dolphins defender in his face. The gorgeous 27-yard post corner to Amendola against Buffalo.
There were several more. Brady isn’t exactly wheezing to the finish line.
■ And for as much as Brady struggled in Miami, he was phenomenal in the Steeler game. The clutch throws in the fourth quarter. Connecting with Gronkowski time and time again. He hit two deep passes — a 31-yarder down the seam to Gronk, and a 44-yarder to Cooks on a beautiful double play-action. Coming back from a bad interception and carrying his team to victory. If Brady wins the MVP award, that was his signature performance.
■ Finally, we have to consider that December has historically been his worst month. His 92.3 passer rating in December is his lowest for any month, his 45 interceptions are the most, and just about every stat across the board takes a dip in December. There are myriad reasons for this — the weather is obviously worse; some of his teammates are probably injured; defenses have three months’ worth of tape on the Patriots’ offense.
This year, four of the five games were division games, which are always tough, and the fifth was against the Steelers. None of these games were gimmes.
■ So, what’s the verdict? Brady is not always seeing the field well, he sometimes tries to buy too much time in the pocket, and he’s getting a little sloppy with putting the ball up for grabs instead of throwing it away.
And he’s not getting much help from his teammates other than Gronkowski and Lewis. His top complements are currently injured, Cooks hasn’t stepped up, and the other role players don’t put any fear into opposing defenses.
Is something wrong mechanically? Is Brady hiding a significant injury? I’m certainly no expert in either field, but nothing obvious shows up on tape.
When Gronkowski and Lewis are playing, Brady still plays like a top-five quarterback. He makes good decisions and some incredible throws. The Patriots can still roll to another Super Bowl.
But the Patriots are a little thin on offense — uncomfortably so. Brady needs to see the field better and make better decisions, and he needs help from his teammates.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin