WASHINGTON — With 57 days left until the November election, Republicans may have a real chance to retain their Senate majority.

Senate Republicans have a steep challenge in this election, in addition to the hurdle presented by the emergence of Donald Trump as the party’s presidential nominee. But their chances are improved because senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Rob Portman of Ohio are leading in their races. Portman and Rubio hold comfortable leads in Quinnipiac University polls released late last week. Their strength in such large and expensive states is holding together Republicans’ dream of keeping the Senate and preventing a Democrat such as Charles Schumer of New York from occupying the majority leader’s office.

The Republicans are defending 24 seats this fall, compared with just 10 for Democrats. And it’s actually worse for Republicans than even those raw numbers suggest.

This class of senators was elected in 2010 — a very good year to be Republican. The national environment at the time helped Republicans win in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida, among other Democratic-leaning or swing states. Six years later, those incumbents are having to run not only in a presidential year — with its resultant turnout increases — but also in a year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Democrats need only a net four seats if Hillary Clinton is elected president and five if she isn’t to retake the majority.

Washington Post