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In 18 years under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, only three Patriots receivers have achieved 1,000 yards in their first season with the club: Randy Moss and Wes Welker in 2007, and Brandin Cooks in 2017.
Moss became a first-ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer this year. Welker will likely enter the Patriots Hall of Fame one day. Yet Cooks, for his 65 catches, 1,082 yards, and seven touchdowns, was shipped out of town after one season in New England, traded to the Rams on Tuesday for the rough equivalent of a late first-/early second-round pick. The Patriots acquired the No. 23 overall pick in the first round, but also dropped down two rounds later in the draft, giving up a fourth-rounder and acquiring a sixth-rounder.
Let’s break down why the Patriots made this deal:
1. Why trade a productive receiver?
A few reasons: A) Because Cooks wasn’t the best fit for the Patriots offense; B) Certainly not at his 2018 price; C) Because they knew they weren’t going to sign him long term; D) To obtain better draft assets to potentially get a quarterback; and E) To better spend the money elsewhere on the roster.
This was a solid trade for the Patriots, who basically recouped what they spent for Cooks last year in the trade with New Orleans:
2017
Patriots get: Brandin Cooks; Pick No. 118 (fourth)
Saints get: Pick No. 32; Pick No. 103 (third)
2018
Rams get: Brandin Cooks; Pick No. 136 (fourth)
Patriots get: Pick No. 23; Pick No. 198 (sixth)
So while the Patriots won’t have Cooks anymore, they got a year out of him, and now can use the asset on other parts of the roster that need it more (finding a QB and/or starting left tackle in the draft, improving the defense, trading for another receiver, etc.).
2. Why wasn’t he a fit for the offense?
Cooks put up good stats with the Patriots — he finished 11th in the NFL in receiving yards, seventh in yards per catch (16.6), and tied for third with 15 catches of 25-plus yards. Cooks was a solid deep threat and was notably durable, playing in all 19 games and over 90 percent of the offensive snaps. He came up big in the AFC Championship game, catching six passes for 100 yards.
But Cooks isn’t the type of receiver the Patriots usually covet. They want guys like Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan and before that Brandon LaFell, players who can pick up tough yards after the catch, reliably convert third downs, and get physical in the run game.
Cooks is not strong, he’s not much of a blocker, and he can get washed out by physical cornerbacks. The Monday night game in Miami was the perfect example, as Cooks was called upon to be the No. 1 receiver with Rob Gronkowski out, and was rendered useless by cornerback Xavien Howard. Cooks finished 80th in the NFL in yards after the catch (243), as he’s not a guy who can make something out of a bubble screen, or catch a quick slant pass and gallop through the secondary. His catch percentage on third down (27 percent, 7 of 26) ranked 121st out of 124 receivers. He had just three 100-yard games. And he didn’t play special teams.
Sure, the Patriots could use Cooks in the offense. But Cooks doesn’t offer much more than the occasional home run, and the Patriots don’t need to spend money on that type of player. They didn’t have a “deep threat’’ in 2014 or 2016 when they won the Super Bowl.
3. Cooks isn’t good value any more?
He was great value last year at about $1.56 million. Now his salary jumps to $8.459 million thanks to the fifth-year option for former first-round picks. That salary became fully guaranteed on March 14.
In a vacuum, that’s still decent value for Cooks. Top receivers are now making $15 million-$16 million per year, and the underwhelming Sammy Watkins just received a $21 million signing bonus from the Chiefs.
But in the Patriots’ world, Cooks wasn’t good value. If Gronk is making $9 million with a $10.9 million cap hit, and Edelman is making $3.5 million with a $5 million cap hit, and Hogan is making $3.5 million with a $3.2 million cap hit, there’s just no way they valued Cooks at $8.459 million. Cooks is a complementary piece with the Patriots, not a star.
Then look past this season. Cooks will be an unrestricted free agent, though the Rams are reportedly trying to lock him up now. If Watkins is signing for $16 million per year, Cooks should be in the same neighborhood and then some, with three 1,000-yard seasons and 27 touchdowns on his résumé.
Yet for all of Cooks’s flashy numbers, the Patriots are now the second team, joining the Saints, to trade Cooks instead of paying him like an elite receiver.
Add in the fact that Cooks’s current contract has no dead money — he is wiped off the Patriots’ books completely, and the Rams assume his entire $8.459 million salary and cap hit — and moving Cooks seemed like the obvious play for the Patriots this offseason.
4. Are the Patriots going to miss Cooks?
They might. Edelman is 32 and coming off a torn ACL. Hogan missed most of the second half of the season with a shoulder injury. Danny Amendola and Dion Lewis are gone. Now Cooks is gone, too.
But the glass can be half-full as well. They still have Brady and Gronkowski. Edelman should be healthy, and so should Malcolm Mitchell. Rex Burkhead was great in the passing game when he was healthy. Youngster Riley McCarron could be the new hero at slot receiver. Hogan was a great deep threat in 2016. And they have two speedsters who aren’t nearly as productive as Cooks, but can still stretch the defense — Cordarrelle Patterson ($3.25 million) and Phillip Dorsett ($1.54 million).
I’m not too worried about the Patriots replacing Cooks’s role in the offense.
5. So now what?
The Patriots have about $15 million in cap space, and the following draft picks:
First round: 23, 31
Second round: 43, 63
Third round: 95
Sixth round: 198, 210
Seventh round: 219
I’d love for them to trade for Odell Beckham, but colleague Jim McBride reports that the Patriots won’t be making a play for the talented but egotistical receiver. The Patriots likely need to add another receiver, and veterans such as Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Maclin, and Eric Decker are still available and can be had for cheap.
But now the Patriots are loaded with draft picks, and can make a play for a quarterback in the first round. The top guys are likely out of reach — Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Baker Mayfield — but the Patriots definitely have the assets to move up higher in the first round to get Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, or Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, if that’s what it takes. The draft is also loaded with potential second- and third-round quarterback prospects.
The Patriots also likely need to find a starting left tackle in the draft, and can make a play for Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey. And they can use their surplus of picks to beef up a front seven that had significant depth concerns last year.
The Patriots punted on the 2017 draft, but now with four picks in the top 63, they look ready to restock the roster with young, affordable talent.
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Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin
