WINDHAM, N.H. — Fresh off a win in the Iowa caucuses, Senator Ted Cruz took the stage for the first time in New Hampshire and offered this comparison: His campaign is like that of President Ronald Reagan’s New Hampshire effort in 1980.
“When was the last time we broke the Washington cartel? 1980,’’ Cruz told an audience of a few hundred people gathered inside a church near the Massachusetts border.
In that year, Reagan came from behind to win the New Hampshire primary. Cruz did not mention that Reagan defeated the winner of the Iowa caucuses to accomplish this feat — something Cruz certainly hopes does not happen this time around.
George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses in 1980, after which he proclaimed he had “the big mo’’ heading into the New Hampshire primary. But during the five weeks between the caucuses and the primary that year, Bush lost the momentum to Reagan. In 2008, it took only five days for Barack Obama to lose “the big mo’’ to Hillary Clinton between Iowa and New Hampshire.
In 2016, none of the 13 candidates on the New Hampshire ballot have anything close to “the big mo,’’ although some of them may have a diminished version of it.
“I don’t think anyone in this Republican field has big mo or small mo,’’ said Republican Pat Griffin, who has worked on a number of New Hampshire primary campaigns, including for Lamar Alexander in 1996. “This year there is ‘no mo.’ The race has reset after Iowa, and the New Hampshire campaign over the next week will have a life of its own.’’
Indeed, the same fundamental dynamics exist in New Hampshire as before the Iowa caucuses. Donald Trump is the Republican front-runner, though there is now some question about his advantage over the pack. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is the Democratic front-runner in the state, though his lead could shrink in the coming days.
Cruz has consolidated conservatives in the state, including the quarter of the state’s GOP voters who are evangelical. And then there is the cluster of establishment Republicans: Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Governors Chris Christie of New Jersey and John Kasich of Ohio, and former Florida governor Jeb Bush.
On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Sanders can point to something they liked in the razor-thin results of the Iowa caucuses. Clinton will take the official win, and the historical moment of being the first woman ever to win the caucuses. Sanders will take advantage of the long view in his own campaign narrative: He’s a little-known senator from a small state who could tie the Clinton machine.
If anyone does have some momentum, it would be on the Republican side with Cruz and Rubio. Cruz may benefit with the further collapse of options for conservatives. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson announced he wouldn’t even arrive in New Hampshire until later in the week. Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race, and Rick Santorum is focusing on South Carolina. Supporters for those three candidates may take another look at Cruz.
In 2016, Iowa may have actually been the “big no.’’ On the Republican side, they rejected Trump, and on the Democratic side they told both Clinton and Sanders to slow down.
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his daily e-mail update on the 2016 campaign at www.boston globe.com/groundgame