When: Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
TV, radio: NBC, WBZ-FM (98.5)
When the Cardinals run
David Johnson is a solidly built big back (6 feet 1 inch, 224 pounds) with excellent vision and instincts. Not the quickest to the hole, he will jump cut through creases and build speed through the second and third levels of the defense. Johnson should break more tackles for a man his size but he almost always falls forward and will deliver a blow. He’s also an excellent receiver and can weave his way through traffic. Chris Johnson has a lot of wear and tear on his 5-11, 203-pound frame and has clearly lost a step, but he will turn back the clock every once in a while. Andre Ellington has exceptional speed and cutback vision but lacks strength. The Cardinals have a solid interior three. Center A.Q. Shipley is explosive and intelligent. Right guard Evan Mathis has strong hands and a lot of stamina, and left guard Mike Iupati is massive and strong. Patriot tackles Alan Branch (he’s an underrated athlete and plays with impressive power) and Malcom Brown (he’s athletic and strong and will track down ball carriers from behind) are excellent. Linebackers Dont’a Hightower (he’s quick and smart) and Jamie Collins (he’s absurdly athletic) are stout.
EDGE: Patriots
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME (2015):
Arizona offense: 119.8 (eighth)
New England defense: 98.8 (ninth)
When the Cardinals pass
Carson Palmer is going strong entering his 14th season. A big man (6-5, 235) with a big, accurate arm, he can make all the throws. He can bomb it downfield, zip it on intermediate routes, and put a nice touch on the softies. He shows excellent pocket toughness and will stand in there despite taking a beating — something that’s happened quite frequently. He has greatly improved his check-downs but will still make some risky throws. He can be streaky and often has trouble shaking off mistakes. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is a golden oldie (by NFL standards). The 13-year vet has size (6-3, 218), speed, and strength. He has excellent body control and blocks his behind off all the way downfield. Michael Floyd is another strong receiver who’s good on every level. Clutch catches are a specialty. John Brown is athletic and gains separation quickly with his speed. He can get jammed off his routes, however. New England’s secondary is top-notch. Starting corners Malcolm Butler (he’s sticky) and Logan Ryan (he’s physical) can hold their own. Cyrus Jones (he’s instinctive) and Justin Coleman (he’s in your face) are progressing. The safety trio of Devin McCourty (he’s wicked smart), Patrick Chung (he’s wicked tough), and Duron Harmon (he’s wicked rangy) is superb.
EDGE: Cardinals
PASSING YARDS PER GAME (2015):
Arizona offense: 288.5 (Second)
New England defense: 240.7 (17th)
When the Patriots run
LeGarrette Blount showed quickness and strength during training camp and on his limited snaps in exhibition games. He’s moving like he’s fully recovered from his season-ending hip injury, and he’ll get the first shot at trying to bully Arizona’s front seven. Blount runs like a bull in a china shop when attacking the line. He squeezes himself through small openings, despite his 6-foot, 250ish-pound frame. He will break off some long runs, and when he gets a full head of steam, defensive backs beware. James White lacks the power to be a consistent between-the-tackles banger but will do damage in space. Get the ball in his hands on screens and he will juke and jive his way downfield. Brandon Bolden is a super sub who can run, catch, and block. D.J. Foster bears watching. A bit slight at 6 feet 195 pounds, the rookie has flashed quickness and speed out of the backfield and as a receiver. If he can stay healthy, he can make a difference. Center David Andrews must be a rock, as his guard situation could be evolving and revolving. Cardinal middle linebackers Deone Bucannon (he’s undersized but beastly) and Kevin Minter (he’s slick and nasty) will find the ball.
EDGE: Cardinals
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME (2015):
New England offense: 87.8 (30th)
Arizona defense: 91.2 (sixth)
When the Patriots pass
Jimmy Garoppolo has the leading role, and it’s time to see what the league’s most talked-about understudy can do on the big stage. The 6-2, 200-pounder had an uneven camp and was solid in the first two exhibition games. He was sluggish against Carolina in his final work (9 of 15, 57 yards) but he was alternating with Tom Brady that night, so finding a rhythm was near-impossible. Garoppolo has a very quick trigger, and that’s a good thing because he’ll be under the gun in this one. He won’t have all his weapons (he didn’t all summer, either), but he can still move this offense. Julian Edelman needs to be huge. The dynamic receiver is quick off the line and runs precise patterns. He has vise-grip hands. With Rob Gronkowski out, Martellus Bennett becomes the primary tight end, and A.J. Derby and Clay Harbor will see more snaps as well. When not targeted, they must block with tenacity. James White will get in on the action, as well. The Arizona secondary is stacked with playmakers. Patrick Peterson is an honest-to-goodness shutdown corner. He has excellent size, mirror skills, and flexibility. Rookie corner Brandon Williams is raw and will get picked on. Safety Tyrann Mathieu is versatile and vicious. Fellow safeties Tony Jefferson and D.J. Swearinger are rugged.
EDGE: Cardinals
PASSING YARDS PER GAME (2016):
New England offense: 286.7 (fifth)
Arizona defense: 230.4 (eighth)
Cardinals’ key player: S Tyrann Mathieu
This ornery little devil lines up everywhere in the secondary. Warning: The Honey Badger’s bite is most definitely worse than his bark.
How he beats you: With intensity and tenacity. Rangy, quick, and muscular, he sticks his nose in everywhere and thumps a lot harder than a 5-foot-9-inch, 186-pounder has a right to.
How to shut him down: Match that intensity and tenacity. He brings it on every down, so you have to as well. Bigger players (LeGarrette Blount and the tight ends) have to pound him when they meet up.
Cardinals’ keys to victory
1. Cardinal numbers: Bring everybody after Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s important for Chandler Jones and his fine feathered friends to be on the attack.
2. Cardinal rules: David Johnson has the skills to take over a game. The second-year back must do just that so Arizona can achieve offensive balance.
3. Cardinal cushion: Get off to a fast start, build an early lead, and make the Patriots, under the guidance of a newbie, play from behind.
Patriots’ keys to victory
1. Comfort zone: It’s all about building Jimmy Garoppolo’s confidence. Get him some early completions so he can settle in and run this team.
2. Comfort level: Garoppolo is a very good athlete. There’s nothing wrong with using your legs to move the ball and keep that defense honest.
3. Comfort food: The defensive tackles have to eat a lot of space to give the linebackers room to shoot gaps and hammer the man with the ball.
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com
