When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
TV, radio: CBS, WBZ-FM (98.5)
When the Jets run
Matt Forte has been one of the most versatile, consistent, productive, and durable tailbacks in the NFL over the last 10 seasons. A big dude at 6 feet 2 inches, 218 pounds (he looks larger), Forte moves with explosiveness and power. He runs with good knee bend and pad level and has big, muscular legs, allowing him to break tackles whether he gets hit high or low. When he’s completely healthy, Forte can exhaust a defense. He has a lot of miles on those legs, having collected more than 13,600 yards from scrimmage. Forte got off to a bit of a slow start this season but seems to be rounding into form over the last four games, with 372 yards rushing. Bilal Powell is a more-than-adequate backup. He has good size (5-10, 204) and strength, and sees holes quickly. Powell has a good first step but lacks the requisite acceleration to be a home run hitter. If the Jets are without center Nick Mangold (ankle), it will hurt. He’s a competitive, ornery beast who gives maximum effort from snap to whistle on every play. Second-stringer Wesley Johnson has good size (6-5, 297) but plays stiff and lacks strength. The dropoff here is severe. Left guard James Carpenter is strong and athletic and has a good motor. If he beats his man, he’ll look to make secondary blocks. Right guard Brian Winters is consistent and cranky — two excellent traits.
EDGE: Jets
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
NY Jets offense: 116.0 (11th)
New England defense: 103.1 (17th)
When the Jets pass
Ryan Fitzpatrick is not having a fun season. He started slow and has never really gotten on track, coming off the best season of his 12-year career. Fitzpatrick is a wily veteran who is much better as a complementary component (i.e. game manager) than the star of the show. He is a first-team all-streaky player: When he’s hot, he’s hot, and when he’s not, well, you know. He is completing just 56 percent of his passes and has thrown 13 interceptions. Fitzpatrick has decent arm strength but is better at leading receivers than trying to zip the ball into tight windows. When engaged, Brandon Marshall is the Jets’ best receiver and still one of league’s elite. He has tight end size (6 feet 4 inches, 230 pounds) and exceptional body control. Marshall has a nice first step, soft hands, and awesome acceleration after the catch. He will lose focus, however, and disappear for long stretches. Quincy Enunwa is emerging. A big, muscular receiver with long arms and soft hands, Enunwa is fiery and smart. Rookie Robby Anderson is a good athlete with strong hands and a penchant for making the acrobatic catch. Anderson lacks strength, though, and will get pushed around. Tight ends Brandon Bostick and Austin Seferian-Jenkins have combined for four catches. Running back Matt Forte is still an excellent receiving threat but his catches are way down. Bilal Powell is a good receiver out of the backfield and is also adept at blitz pickup.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
NY Jets offense: 219.3 (26th)
New England defense: 252.1 (15th)
When the Patriots run
The dynamic of the New England ground game has changed with the addition of the dynamic Dion Lewis. The 5-foot-8-inch, 195-pounder has exquisite elusiveness and elite change-of-pace fluidness. He accelerates and decelerates smoothly, and his quickness leaves defenders grabbing at space. He lacks bulk but will slip tackles. LeGarrette Blount is the thunder to Lewis’s lightning. The big thumper (6-0, 250) is on track for a great season. He runs with the power you’d expect from a man his size but also with deceptive nimbleness. Persistence pays off with this guy. Even when he starts slow, he usually finds a groove and makes an impact. James White is a threat in open space. He will line up everywhere (including the new-look pony backfield with Lewis) and can be an effective runner and receiver. He runs low, has quick feet, and continues to improve as a physical player. The interior three work hard to open lanes and wear down defenders. Center David Andrews (he’s smart), right guard Joe Thuney (he’s dependable), and left guard Shaq Mason (he’s strong and athletic) are building blocks. Jets nose tackle Steve McLendon has great size and strength. He can rag-doll blockers and crunch ball carriers. Inside linebackers David Harris and rookie Darron Lee are active and athletic. Harris has great instincts, sifts through bodies, and locates the ball. Lee is a hard-hitting sideline-to-sideline playmaker.
EDGE: Jets
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 118.3 (t-sixth)
New York defense: 85.4 (fourth)
When the Patriots pass
Tom Brady has been spreading the ball around masterfully and keeping defenses honest and frustrated. Last week, with Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan out, Brady still hit six receivers and threw scoring strikes to four. Brady’s preparation is second to none, and his ability to adjust in-game — even from play to play — is remarkable. He surveys the scene, processes it quickly, and exploits matchups. Superior slotman Julian Edelman leads the Patriots with 56 catches. He’s a blur off the line, runs exact routes, and has great hands. He fights tooth and nail for every inch. Danny Amendola’s catches are down (19) but they’re usually clutch (four TDs, 12 first downs). He’s smart, instinctive, and fearless. Malcolm Mitchell is another smart receiver with sneaky speed and good hands. His role will continue to expand. Gronkowski is the gold standard at tight end. If he doesn’t play, it means more work for Martellus Bennett (he’s up for it) and Matt Lengel (he’s game). Bennett is averaging 13.3 yards per catch and blocks like a demon. Out of the backfield, James White has sweet feet and sweet hands, while Dion Lewis is downright electrifying. The Jets have an excellent pair of ends in Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson. Williams lines up everywhere and uses an awesome combination of explosiveness and power to defeat blockers. Wilkerson is a wily beast with excellent short-area burst. This duo is a problem.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 268.6 (sixth)
New York defense: 260.5 (19th)
Jets’ key player: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
The bearded one has an abysmal 2-7 record against the Patriots, but that’s a bit deceiving. He has had some very strong performances for some very bad teams. Last season, he threw for nearly 500 yards, 5 TDs, and zero INTs vs. New England.
How he beats you: With intelligence and athleticism. Fitzpatrick knows this offense — and the Patriots defense. When he takes what’s given, he can be a handful. When he tries to do too much, he can be had.
How to shut him down: By taking away the quick routes. Fitzy’s at his best when he’s zipping it in a flash; he lacks accuracy on the deep ball. Keep the coverage tight and he’ll try to force the ball, which leads to turnovers.
Jets’ keys to victory
1. Ground speed: Oversized tailback Matt Forte has to be a force to keep pressure off Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s big, tough, and durable. The more touches for him, the better.
2. Air speed: Receivers Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa have excellent size and strength. Getting them the ball quickly is a must because they are exceptional after the catch.
3. Load factor: The hefty defensive linemen (Leonard Williams, Sheldon Richardson, and Muhammad Wilkerson) need to bring pressure and take time and space away from Tom Brady.
Patriots’ keys to victory
1. Wingmen: Super-quick and reliable receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola have to get open quick so the man at the controls, Tom Brady, can get rid of the ball in a flash.
2. Crosscheck and all-call: Offensive tackles Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon — and all other available bodies — need to keep Brady in a safe air pocket to avoid any turbulence.
3. Contact flight: Darrelle Revis says he’s old. Time to see just how accurate the cornerback’s assessment is. Don’t be afraid to visit the island frequently and build up some frequent-flyer miles.
PREDICTION: Patriots 17, Jets 10
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com
