
The self-proclaimed “King of Debt’’ is preparing to become president of the United States, and he has a rather unorthodox take on economic issues. Call it Trumponomics.
Above all, Donald Trump’s economic vision is held together by two things: a commitment to prioritizing the needs of America — and Americans; and a deep-rooted sense that economics is about making and selling physical stuff.
For now, his highest economic priorities include massive tax cuts and wide-ranging infrastructure projects. And while it’s not yet clear whether congressional Republicans are prepared to follow Trump’s deficit-swelling path, financial markets are suggesting that a dose of Trumponomics could finally push the US economy into high gear, something the Federal Reserve and its regime of super-low interest rates has failed to do.
What is Trump’s economic vision?
Lots of American-held jobs in American-owned businesses making things in America. That’s the ideal of success in Trumponomics.
And holding these two priorities together — America first, manufacturing above all — helps to make sense of his unorthodox mix of policy preferences.
■ Infrastructure spending. Trump emphasized it in his victory speech last week. He said the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels, schools, and airports will become “second to none . . . And we will put millions of our people to work.’’
■ Renegotiating trade policies. Trump says bad trade deals have cost domestic manufacturing jobs. But his discussions of trade always focus on exports and manufacturing. It doesn’t seem to matter that globalization has been a boon for consumers, driving down the price of foreign-made clothing and electronics. For Trump, importing is a kind of failure because it means we’re not the ones doing the making.
■ Immigration. Trump’s immigration policy follows almost directly from his trade policy. Both are based on the same zero-sum vision: When immigrants find work in America, that leaves fewer jobs for Americans. By restricting immigration, Trump hopes to open up more jobs for low-skilled American workers — people who were once the lifeblood of America’s manufacturing-based economy, and who buoyed Trump’s candidacy.
■ Tax cuts and deregulation. Here’s where Trumponomics meets a more traditional Republican economic vision. The idea is that by cutting tax bills, and loosening regulations, businesses will have the money and freedom they need to expand, hire, and generally get more done. This trickle-down approach doesn’t have a great track record, but it fits with Trump’s emphasis on strengthening the American economy by getting businesses back to work.
How could Trumponomics help the economy?
Trump is inheriting an economy in pretty good shape: Unemployment is low, and wages are starting to tick up. But there are problems. The benefits aren’t being felt much by the working class. And all the growth has been fueled by a continuous, historically unprecedented level of stimulus from the Federal Reserve, in the form of near-zero interest rates.
The Fed can’t keep it up forever.
That’s where President-elect Trump comes in. Between the massive tax cuts and the large-scale infrastructure projects, Trump’s economic proposals could provide an alternative kind of stimulus.
With the president pushing this hard on the economic accelerator, the Federal Reserve could finally let up, raising rates well above zero to ensure that the economy doesn’t grow too fast.
There are a lot of assumptions in this hypothetical chain of events, but markets seem to think it a real possibility. For one thing, bond yields have been pressing upward — a sign that the era of low rates is fading and that the competition for spare dollars is about to get a lot more fierce.
At the same time, there’s been a sudden spike in inflation expectations, not just for next year but even 10 years from now. And that, too, is a clear signal. Think of rising inflation like smoke coming off an overhot economy. For years now, we haven’t been able to generate the necessary combustion; in fact, “lowflation’’ has become a kind of endemic problem. But Trump is changing that, giving investors reason to expect that inflation will finally hit the Fed’s target of about 2 percent.
What are the risks of Trumponomics?
Trump’s plans do come with a host of risks, long and short term.
Among other things: Cutting back on immigration will make it harder for some businesses to find qualified workers; also, renegotiating US trade deals could lead to an escalating trade war with Mexico or China.
Beyond that, there’s the issue of debt. Because what Trump is calling for is essentially a massive amount of deficit spending.
Independent analyses have found that his tax plan alone would add more than $7 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years. And while Trump has talked about offsetting this cost, he’s never outlined a workable proposal. And that only makes it harder for the government to maintain core programs like Social Security and Medicare.
At the same time, Trump is also taking a big political risk: His core constituency won’t be the chief beneficiary of his economic policies.
Trump’s tax plan is slanted to benefit wealthy Americans, as opposed to the working class whites who provided the decisive votes for his election. And while any infrastructure projects will certainly be a boon for construction workers, Trump’s current proposal is partially funded through user fees like tolls — and those hit poor people hardest.
What’s more, when the economy is hot and interest rates are on the rise, the price of the dollar generally goes up. And that’s terrible for American manufacturing, including for all of Trump’s Rust Belt supporters. Manufacturers tend to do best when the local currency is low. Indeed, it’s the very reason China spent so many years manipulating its currency — so that its exporters would have an advantage.
Evan Horowitz digs through data to find information that illuminates policy issues. He can be reached at evan.horowitz@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeHorowitz.