When the Red Sox struck their deal for Chris Sale at the winter meetings last December, one National League evaluator said the timing of the trade was little short of brilliant. With the Yankees focused on developing a young core and expected to shed payroll in 2017 and 2018, an opportunity to achieve separation in the AL East existed.
That vision, of course, did not come to fruition. The Sox did manage to win the AL East, but they did so despite the fact that the Yankees were arguably the better team. New York finished with a 91-61 record that was two games worse than the Sox, but outscored opponents by 198 runs. The Red Sox had a more modest run differential of 117 runs.
The remarkable work of the bullpen in extra innings allowed the Sox to claim more wins, but by the end of the year, Boston’s roster didn’t look like it was New York’s equal.
That highlights the notion that the Sox’ window may be a bit different than expected. As a result, the urgency they face for roster upgrades this winter may be somewhat magnified — particularly given the likely shape of the next two offseasons for New York.
In early October, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman declared definitively to the New York Post that they “are getting under the threshold next year.’’ Just as the Sox wanted to reset their tax bill by getting under the luxury-tax threshold of $195 million in 2017, New York is determined to stay under next year’s $197 million line.
The Yankees’ efforts will be aided because Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia (among others) will be coming off the books, but while they will have some financial flexibility, they’re likely going to have to steer clear of high-end free agents such as J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer.
Perhaps they’ll re-sign Sabathia to round out a rotation with Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka (assuming he doesn’t opt out), Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery. But unless they can bring in Japanese star Shohei Otani (who if he comes to MLB as an international free agent under 25 this offseason won’t be eligible for much more than the league minimum), New York is unlikely to make a major rotation upgrade.
Meanwhile, to stay under the threshold, they may have to trade from their inventory of power relievers, something they have the luxury of doing but would nonetheless compromise their bullpen depth.
The offseason of 2018-19, however, will be different. In a free agent class that could feature a dizzying list of superstars including Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw (if he opts out), David Price (if he opts out), and Dallas Keuchel, the Yankees — with their luxury taxes lowered by 30 percent if they do indeed get under the threshold — are expected to emerge with a juggernaut of a roster.
There is, in other words, a giant obstacle looming on the horizon. The AL East landscape that the Sox will face as soon as 2019 may be more foreboding than the one that confronts them next season.
The Sox have reason to believe they can be considerably better next year, with the possibility of a full year of Price in the rotation, a full year of Rafael Devers, and potential bounce-backs from Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Rick Porcello, among others. Some members of the Yankees who had breakout years in 2018 (Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius) could regress.
A third straight AL East title seems very much within their grasp, especially with the right moves to supplement their returning cast. Moreover, this winter may represent the Red Sox’ last chance in some time to be the aggressors in the market at a time when New York is exercising restraint.
That New York is playing into deep October this year represents a warning sign for the Sox. That the Yankees seem unlikely to compete for the most attractive free agents this winter would appear to represent an opportunity.
With the farm system thinned through the trades for Sale and Craig Kimbrel, the Sox have placed a huge wager on the near-term. Even at a time when they are expected to fly past the luxury tax threshold in the coming year, the Red Sox may have little choice but to double down on that bet this winter.
