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Lower-cost Teslas hit the road
Analysts skeptical that production goals can be met
Tesla Model 3 owners awaited their cars Friday night outside an assembly plant in Fremont, Calif. (Peter Holley/Washington Post)
By Bill Vlasic
New York Times

FREMONT, Calif. — After a meteoric rise that made it, at least briefly, the most valuable car company in the United States, Tesla arrived at a moment of truth Friday night as it delivered the first of its mass-market sedans to their new owners.

For a decade, the company has been a manufacturer of high-end electric cars in small numbers. But now, Tesla is aiming at much loftier goals. It wants not only to become a large-scale producer in the suddenly crowded field of battery-powered vehicles, but also to lure consumers away from mainstream, gasoline-powered automobiles.

Yet Tesla’s expansion comes with a set of risks. It plans to more than quadruple its annual production to more than a half-million vehicles, while still maintaining its image as an enlightened outlier in an industry long dominated by global giants — who are racing to develop electrified vehicles of their own.

Tesla unveiled its new Model 3 sedans, priced at $35,000, in a ceremony Friday night on the grounds of its sprawling assembly plant and research facility outside San Francisco. To the cheers of hundreds of employees and invited guests, Tesla’s chief executive, Elon Musk, drove onstage in a Model 3 and heralded a new chapter in the company’s growth.

“The whole point of this company was to make a really great, affordable electric car,’’ said Musk, a Silicon Valley billionaire and co-founder of Tesla. “And we finally have it.’’

The big question is whether Tesla can grow dramatically and still retain its cachet.

So far, investors have signaled their confidence in the company’s prospects, propelling Tesla’s stock market value to a level on par with General Motors and Ford, the biggest US automakers.

Industry analysts view the Model 3 introduction as the pivotal event that will either confirm Tesla’s vast potential as a major car company, or define its limits as a niche player in an ultracompetitive industry.

“Elon Musk likes making history, which is good because he’ll have to accomplish several unprecedented feats to pull off a successful Model 3 launch,’’ said Karl Brauer, an executive with the auto-research firms Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader.

The biggest hurdle is expanding manufacturing capacity in Fremont fast enough to begin satisfying the enormous interest in the new car. About 500,000 people have put down $1,000 deposits since last year to reserve delivery of Model 3s when they are available.

The first cars off the line Friday were sold to 30 of Tesla’s employees as both an appreciation of their work and to provide the company with immediate feedback on the quality of the product.

But strains are already showing in Tesla’s ability to meet the expectations it has set for the Model 3.

Its intricate supply chain has faltered in the past, leading to shortfalls of its current luxury offerings, the Model S sedan and Model X SUV. The most option-laden versions of those vehicles can sell for $100,000 or more.

Earlier this month, Tesla acknowledged that a shortage of battery packs had limited its production to about 25,000 vehicles in the three months that ended in June — a long way from the 600,000-a-year target it has set for 2018.

And as a measure of what the company is competing with, the biggest carmakers like Volkswagen and Toyota produce an average of 25,000 vehicles a day.

Musk warned employees attending Friday’s Model 3 event that the company is in for “six months of manufacturing hell’’ as it accelerates production of the new car.

And as the company turbocharges its growth, it is learning firsthand the pitfalls of rapid expansion.

Some employees at the Fremont factory say that turnover among workers is high, and the plant is laboring to keep up with the changes that come with the installation of more robotic equipment and new technology.

The plant is also in early stages of an organizing drive by some assembly-line employees who would like to join the United Automobile Workers union.