FORT MYERS, Fla. — Worst-to-first expectations are running rampant in Red Sox Nation. If you go by FanGraphs projections, the Red Sox are going to go from 78 to 91 wins and be one of only three major league teams (Dodgers and Cubs) to win at least 90 games.
That projection would beat the second-place Yankees by six games.
With pitchers and catchers officially reporting to spring training this week, the American League East could be the most closely contested race of 2016 according to FanGraphs, which has the Yankees at 85 wins, the Blue Jays at 84, the Rays at 82, and the Orioles at 78.
Of course, there’s no guarantee of accuracy. You can throw all the WARs and other metrics into a hat and not come out with an accurate projection.
Things happen — injuries, subpar performances, numbers getting out of whack. But as best as we can tell, the race will be a lot tighter than the six-game advantage FanGraphs gives the Red Sox over the Yankees.
With young teams and old teams, it’s hard to project the inclines and declines.
How can we judge how much, or if at all, Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, and Mark Teixeira will decline for the Yankees? How can we judge whether one, two, or all three will come up lame, as Teixeira did in 2015 amid an MVP-like season? Will A-Rod roll out of bed and keep hitting at age 40?
Will the Yankees’ rotation of Masahiro Tanaka, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, Luis Severino, and CC Sabathia stay healthy for a full season? Will Severino rise into an ace, or will he take a step back? Is Sabathia, at least as we once knew him, done? Is Tanaka healthy enough to be an ace? Will newcomers Starlin Castro, Aaron Hicks, and Aroldis Chapman make a big difference? Is the super bullpen of Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Chapman the real thing?
Similarly, will the Red Sox’ young crew of Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Blake Swihart continue to rise into All-Star status? What kind of player is Rusney Castillo? Will David Ortiz have another 30/100 season in his final hurrah? Will the outlay of $217 million for David Price also lead to Price reversing his postseason problems? What will the Red Sox get out of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval at the corners?
If the Red Sox are the cat’s meow, then why is there uncertainty about the rotation after Price? Can Clay Buchholz stay healthy? Can Eduardo Rodriguez take that next leap forward? Can Joe Kelly continue his nice progression from last season, but also have the durability he needs? Will Rick Porcello fall into a consistent No. 3 niche? Will Junichi Tazawa prove he’s not burned out? Can Koji Uehara be a solid setup man to Craig Kimbrel and relinquish the closer role seamlessly?
There is no elite team in the division, but certainly no bad one, either.
The Orioles are projected at 78 wins and it’s hard to believe they won’t be better than that. Of course, that projection is before they sign Yovani Gallardo, which seems to be in the offing. The bullpen is solid, but even with Gallardo the rotation will have its challenges.
With Price gone, the Blue Jays don’t project to match their 93 wins and excitement of last season, but we believe they’ll have a full season of the rising Marcus Stroman (4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in only four starts last year), who missed most of last season with a knee injury. The Jays also have the division’s best offense. FanGraphs projects them at 4.74 runs per game, slightly more than the Red Sox.
The Rays will again rely on pitching to keep them in the race. They are projected by FanGraphs to have the worst offense in the division at 4.19 runs per game, but they have improved their offense somewhat with the additions of Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison. But it’s probably not enough to get past the teams ranked above them.
Each AL East team could have an emerging young player who could add value.
While the Yankees suffered a big blow with the loss of first base prospect Greg Bird for the season, they have players who could emerge in 2016. None bigger than 6-foot-7-inch right fielder Aaron Judge, who could be their next significant position player.
The Orioles, whose farm system was recently ranked 27th out of 30 teams by ESPN’s Keith Law, have three pitchers who could find their way onto the team in 2016 — lefthander Chris Lee and righthanders Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey. The Orioles probably need at least one to realize his potential.
The Rays never seem to run out of pitching prospects, and they’ll introduce lefthander Blake Snell in 2016 as their next great hope.
The Jays (ranked 25th by Law) have had their farm system decimated by the deals they made to enhance their team last season. They do have two young pitchers — closer Roberto Osuna and starter Aaron Sanchez — who should get better in 2016.
Not yet buying the Boston runaway. Toronto is still potent, Price or no Price, and the Yankees are a solid team. Don’t expect spring training to provide any real answers, but the games between these five teams will be as compelling as ever once the season starts.
Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickcafardo.
