FOXBOROUGH — Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is all about addressing the “elephant in the room.’’
That’s what he said to Tony Dungy in acknowledging a potential rematch between the Patriots and Steelers in this season’s AFC Championship game. Tomlin told the New England media that it was “ridiculous’’ to pretend he’s never thought of that possibility, and he’s right. Honesty is refreshing and exciting, so in that spirit let’s ask the question about Sunday’s game that’s on everybody’s minds.
Will the Steelers ever stop playing that zone defense that the Patriots routinely destroy?
“We can’t always play zone, especially against people like the Patriots,’’ Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler told a Pittsburgh radio station this past summer. “You look at the people who have beaten the Patriots in the past and a lot of them played man to man. I think the last time we beat them [in 2011], we were playing a lot of man-to-man coverage.’’
The last time the Steelers beat the Patriots was by a score of 25-17 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The teams have met four times since and the Patriots have won all four, three at Gillette Stadium and one at Heinz. The Steelers allowed an average of 36.5 points in those losses.
Sunday’s game is shaping up to be a shootout, with the Steelers stacked on offense but facing questions on defense.
“I think we’ve made a myriad of changes and adjustments — the type of changes everybody does over the course of 12 months. Largely, we just need to play better in reference to specifically what you’re talking about in terms of the matchup,’’ Tomlin said on a conference call Wednesday, referring to his team’s struggles to cover receivers Chris Hogan and Julian Edelman in last season’s AFC Championship game.
“We’re capable of playing better than we played a year ago, but changes occur on all football teams over the course of a calendar year.’’
In that game last January, the Patriots spread out wide, stretching the Steelers’ zone coverage, and Tom Brady had little difficulty finding open receivers. Hogan was the star with 180 yards receiving and two touchdowns, but Edelman had 118 yards receiving and a touchdown.
The game was actually the Patriots’ least balanced performance in their last five games against the Steelers — they ran 44 passing plays and rushed 27 times — but Pittsburgh was giving up easy, big gains in the passing game.
That has been the basic problem for the Steelers against the Patriots dating to that 2011 matchup.
Bill Belichick spoke at length during the week about how formidable Pittsburgh has looked on tape, though he said the Steelers’ defense has stayed basically the same schematically.
Pittsburgh has played more dime defense since linebacker Ryan Shazier suffered a serious spine injury on Dec. 4, Belichick said, particularly on passing downs.
“They’re primarily a nickel team going back to last year when it was [linebacker Lawrence] Timmons and Shazier,’’ Belichick said. “A lot of nickel this year. They’ve played a little more dime this year and in the last couple of weeks in third-down situations, not on early downs. I’d say that would be the biggest change. That’s not really a change, but that has shown up.’’
The loss of Shazier puts a big wrench in Pittsburgh’s defensive plans. Shazier is the type of athletic linebacker Butler could have felt comfortable matching up on the Patriots’ running backs, but without him, Butler will likely need to move an extra player into the box to defend the run, as Pittsburgh has given up 130 and 152 rushing yards in its last two games.
The man for that job will likely be second-year safety Sean Davis. However, using Davis that way compounds the problems the Steelers had in the AFC Championship game and other Patriots games of the recent past: They can’t get away with leaving all that open space outside.
In the Steelers’ 2011 win over the Patriots, then-defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau used a lot of press-man coverage. He had cornerback Ike Taylor move with Wes Welker when Welker moved inside to the slot. Welker finished with six catches on eight targets for only 39 yards — exactly what a defensive coordinator is hoping to see from man coverage, because even when Welker made a catch, he was immediately brought down.
The Steelers drafted Artie Burns in the first round in 2016, hoping the world-class hurdler with 4.46 speed in the 40 could turn into the kind of press-man corner who could blanket Patriots receivers.
They signed Joe Haden last offseason, though he’s questionable for Sunday’s game while recovering from a fractured fibula.
“Joe’s a very experienced player,’’ Belichick said. “We saw him in a number of games earlier this year. He’s missed the last few weeks. [Cameron] Sutton and [Coty] Sensabaugh played. They’re pretty good, no matter which one of those guys is in there, but Haden has a lot of experience.’’
Sensabaugh is dealing with a shoulder injury, so if Sutton gets his first career start Sunday, the Steelers will need Burns to step up so that any additional help can assist Sutton on the other side.
When the Steelers have had to make do with a less experienced or less talented secondary when facing the Patriots, they’ve relied on their matchup-zone defensive looks that allow them to focus on generating pressure up front.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski didn’t play in last season’s AFC Championship game, but he’s been heavily featured in New England’s game planning in other meetings. In his last four games against Pittsburgh, Gronkowski has caught 25 passes for 424 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 106 yards per game and nearly 17 yards per catch.
That’s what’s really been the trouble with the Steelers’ zone coverage: The Patriots have torched Pittsburgh for huge plays. The images of Hogan streaking uncovered for catches of 39, 34, 22, 26, and 24 yards in the AFC Championship game won’t be soon forgotten, but in many ways big gains are the rule, not the exception, for recent Patriots-Steelers games.
Gronkowski caught a 37-yard pass in the first meeting last season. He had a long of 52 yards in the 2015 meeting. In 2013, the Steelers gave up completions of 34 and 27 yards to Gronkowski, 81 yards to Aaron Dobson (who had two touchdowns), and 57, 34, and 21 yards to Danny Amendola.
Brady said that there have always been man-to-man elements within the Steelers’ zone coverages, but it didn’t sound as though he’d been watching a unit reinvented on tape.
“It looks like the Steelers to me,’’ Brady said. “I mean, they’ve had the same defense for a long time. Whatever they decide to do, we’ll be prepared for. I mean, we prepare for everything. We’ll go out there and cut it loose on Sunday.’’
The Steelers have had three coaches since 1969 and two defensive coordinators since 2004, so continuity has usually worked in their favor. But it’s only natural they make some adjustments intended to make them more competitive against the Patriots, though it would be hard to justify a full-scale defensive makeover.
“I think at this point in the year, it’s not like you’re going to go reinvent your whole defense in Week 15,’’ Brady said. “They’re ranked pretty high. They do a lot of things well. I’m sure they’re going to want to continue to do those things well. They rush good, they’re tight in coverage, they mix their schemes in — zone and man and blitzes — and they do it on all three downs.’’
Tomlin and Butler know the same old scheme hasn’t gotten the job done against the Patriots, but they might be shorthanded at the spots they need high-level play from the most.
If Butler is right and the Steelers are able to press the Patriots receivers at the line, throw off their timing, and cover well enough man to man that Brady has to hold onto the ball longer, then a talented front seven should be able to get to the 40-year-old quarterback. That would give the Steelers a chance to limit the Patriots on offense.
Can they do it? History says no, but only time will tell.
Nora Princiotti can be reached at nora.princiotti@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter at @NoraPrinciotti.
