The Patriots’ 2016 championship isn’t even cold yet, and already most of New England and the NFL world has moved on to the hottest topic of the offseason – the future of Jimmy Garoppolo and the Patriots.
Of course, the Patriots would love to have a Brett Favre-to-Aaron Rodgers type of handoff at quarterback, but Tom Brady’s longevity and Garoppolo’s contract make it tricky. Garoppolo’s deal expires after 2017, and Brady isn’t going anywhere.
“I’d like to play until my mid-40s,’’ Brady, who turns 40 in August, told The MMQB last week. “I know next year is not going to be my last year.’’
The NFL trade market doesn’t open until March 9, and the NFL Draft doesn’t start until April 27, but conflicting reports already are emerging.
On Thursday alone, ESPN’s Ed Werder tweeted that he’s not expecting the Patriots to trade Garoppolo “based on what I heard from people inside #Patriots at SB and those familiar with their approach.’’
Later in the day, ESPN’s Adam Schefter countered that “I just think there’s going to be too much interest, and somebody’s eventually going to offer enough to pry him loose.’’
So what should the Patriots do with Garoppolo? Let’s break it down:
The case for keeping Garoppolo — Keeping him for the 2017 season and beyond hinges on one critical element: the Patriots’ evaluation of Garoppolo. No one truly knows how Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels feel about Garoppolo’s prospects as a franchise quarterback. But the best argument for keeping Garoppolo is that the Patriots believe he’s the real deal, and they would be giving up a Rodgers or a Steve Young by trading Garoppolo. In that scenario, no amount of trade compensation is worth it.
Garoppolo certainly made a decent case for himself in his limited playing time in 2016. In 1½ games against the Cardinals and Dolphins, Garoppolo completed 68.3 percent of his passes, averaged a healthy 8.0 yards per attempt, and threw for 502 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. He showed moxie in leading the Patriots to a 23-21, fourth-quarter comeback win at Arizona in Week 1, then staked the Patriots to a 21-0 lead over the Dolphins in the second quarter before leaving with a shoulder injury. Garoppolo came out of college in 2014 as a highly regarded passer, and he’s done nothing to dispel that notion.
The Patriots also have a history of not making a move until their hand is forced. If they don’t have to activate a player until Friday at 4 p.m., they wait until Friday at 3:59 p.m. If the franchise tag deadline is March 1, they make the decision on March 1.
Garoppolo won’t be a free agent until the spring of 2018, and he’s only set to make $820,077 with a $1,108,513 salary cap number next season, so the Patriots could certainly stand pat and wait for 2017 to shake out. Yes, Brady wants to play several more years, but he’ll also be 40 years old, and who knows what will happen next season? And even if Brady does come out of 2017 healthy, maybe the Patriots decide that they want Garoppolo to take over in 2018 or at the latest 2019.
The Patriots could always use the franchise tag for Garoppolo in 2018, and either install him as the starter (unlikely) or buy themselves one more year to decide (much more likely). They could also tag Garoppolo and then have until July 2018 to trade him, as they did with Matt Cassel nearly a decade ago.
And if they simply let Garoppolo walk away in free agency at some point, they’ll collect a third-round compensatory draft pick in return.
The case for trading Garoppolo — The most compelling reason to trade him is that Brady guy, of course. Age is just a number with Brady, and he’s arguably playing better and feeling better at 39 than he has at any time in his career. He’s under contract through 2019, and it seems reasonable that he will play it out, at least.
The Patriots’ No. 1 priority at this point should be maximizing the time they have left with Brady — likely two or three years. And while Garoppolo might be the real deal, he’s also a valuable asset — a player who could potentially land a first-round pick, or at worst a high second-round pick and probably another draft pick or player.
Instead of letting the asset waste away on their bench, the Patriots could potentially land the No. 12 overall pick from Cleveland, or the No. 33, 34, or 36 pick from the Browns, 49ers, or Bears to go along with the No. 32 pick the Patriots already own. Give Belichick two shots at drafting players in the 30s, and he’s likely going to come away with one, if not two, immediate starters.
Garoppolo’s trade value might never be higher than it is this offseason. He is only 25 years old, and he played just long enough this season to show what he can do.
And if the goal is to keep building around Brady, trading Garoppolo before the draft is a must. If the Patriots let Garoppolo walk in free agency after the 2017 season, they won’t get a third-round compensatory pick until the 2019 draft. If they trade Garoppolo in the next two months, they get even better draft picks, and two years earlier. The Patriots used this principle in trading Chandler Jones before the final year of his contract, and in trading Jamie Collins midseason for a 2017 draft pick instead of letting him walk after the season and collecting a 2018 compensatory pick.
The money, of course, is a big factor. The franchise tag for a quarterback by 2018 should be close to $25 million, which is an absurd number to be paying a backup, particularly for a penny-wise team such as the Patriots.
Garoppolo’s shoulder injury also has to factor into the evaluation. Yes, injuries happen all the time in football. But what if Garoppolo is fragile? He’s not the biggest quarterback at 6 feet 2 inches, and he couldn’t make it two full games before hurting his shoulder. Not even the Patriots know how Garoppolo’s body can withstand the beating of a full NFL season.
And lastly, the Patriots seem to love Garoppolo’s backup, Jacoby Brissett. He clearly was not ready to play this past season as a rookie, but at the same time showed great composure in leading the Patriots to a 27-0 win over the Texans on “Thursday Night Football,’’ and impressive toughness in playing against the Bills with a broken thumb. It’s not like the Patriots would have to start all over again at quarterback if they trade Garoppolo.
The verdict? Trade him. We wouldn’t blame the Patriots for keeping Garoppolo on his cost-effective deal for 2017 and seeing how the chips fall next offseason. There still will be a healthy trade market for him in 2018.
That said, we see Brady continuing to play at a high level over the next two years, and Garoppolo is too valuable an asset for the Patriots to just sit on him and let him walk away for a compensatory pick in 2019.
The Patriots could use the return on investment now, especially if they lose a handful of players in free agency. Given how desperate teams such as the Browns, Bears, and 49ers are for a quarterback, the Patriots can turn Garoppolo into several useful players who can help them win Super Bowls in the next three years.
While we think Garoppolo is a good young quarterback with a bright NFL future, we’re just not sold that Garoppolo is of the level of Rodgers or Young, if for no other reason than the durability question. If the Patriots can find Garoppolo out of Eastern Illinois in the second round of the draft, they can probably find another quarterback to develop (if it’s not Brissett already).
AERIAL ASSAULT
Some Falcons had targets on backs
■ We’re still not done breaking down the Patriots’ incredible comeback win over the Falcons in the Super Bowl. Our focus this week was the coverage stats, and which Falcons cornerbacks were targeted by Tom Brady. Here are the key numbers, which only take man coverage and tight zone coverage into account. We did not count the six official throws into zone coverage in which we couldn’t directly assign a defender:
Jalen Collins: 14 targets, 10 catches, 104 yards, 2 TDs, 5 first downs.
Robert Alford: 11 targets, 6 catches, 105 yards, 5 first downs, 1 for 1 on third-down conversions.
Brian Poole: 8 targets, 5 catches, 62 yards, 4 first downs, 2-point conversion, 1 for 1 on fourth-down conversions.
Keanu Neal: 5 targets, 5 catches, 66 yards, 4 first downs, 3 for 3 on third-down conversions.
Deion Jones: 8 targets, 5 catches, 41 yards, 1 for 1 on third-down conversions.
Alford did an admirable job against Julian Edelman until the fourth quarter. But Poole was beaten all day by Danny Amendola, Brady went right after the rookie Neal on third down, and Collins just couldn’t keep up with Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. The Patriots’ film study must have shown that Collins was susceptible to the deep back-shoulder throw, as Brady threw six of them against Collins, hitting five for 66 yards.
■ The Patriots will host the NFL’s Thursday night kickoff game, but we agree with what Peter King wrote last week, and we’re not expecting a Super Bowl rematch like the NFL did with the Broncos and Panthers last year.
The Panthers were not pleased with having to play the Broncos right away, making it difficult to put a disappointing loss behind them. And it would be the height of cruelty to make the Falcons watch the Patriots hoist another championship banner after Atlanta blew a 25-point lead in the second half of the Super Bowl.
Instead, the Chiefs or the Panthers seem like the realistic options for the opening game, with the Chiefs as our best guess. But if the Texans land Tony Romo, they become the logical choice.
■ We heard two unspoken messages from Brady last week when he told The MMQB that he plans to play until his mid-40s. One, Brady got right out in front of the “Will your retire after 2017?’’ questions that he surely will face several times next season. And two, he told Jimmy Garoppolo, “I’m not going anywhere, pal.’’
■ It is newsworthy that several Patriots have come out and stated that they wouldn’t attend a ceremony at the White House this spring. And we expect several more players to follow suit. That said, Robert Kraft is correct when he says that “a dozen of our players don’t go’’ whenever the Patriots have visited the White House in the past. Brady and Dont’a Hightower were notable absences in 2015, and if you Google “Patriots White House 2004’’ and “2005,’’ you’ll find pictures that show only 30-40 players.
ETC.
Ad Council gets support of league
The Ad Council released a new commercial last week as part of its “Love Has No Labels’’ campaign, and one reason the advertisement is interesting is because it was done in close cooperation with the NFL.
The 2-minute-41-second commercial was shot at last month’s Pro Bowl in Orlando, putting a twist on the “Kiss Cam’’ by featuring couples and friends of all types – gay, straight, interracial, old, young, disabled, and more. The ad features the messages, “Love has no religion, love has no age, love has no gender, love has no disability, love has no race.’’
The commercial does not have any NFL branding as per the Ad Council, but the league was heavily involved.
“We know that [“Love Has No Labels’’] has been doing important work over the last few years and that’s why we were excited about the opportunity when the Ad Council approached us last spring,’’ Anna Isaacson, the NFL’s senior vice president of social responsibility, said in a statement.
For a sport with a starched-up, “No Fun League’’ image run by mostly white billionaires — and featuring a commissioner who declined to comment on the recent refugee ban at his Super Bowl news conference — the commercial is an interesting dip into liberal politics and, frankly, is a welcome display of tolerance and acceptance from the NFL.
Extra points
Darrelle Revis was probably on his way out with the Jets anyway, but his arrest on four felony counts and one misdemeanor count stemming from a late-night fight in Pittsburgh likely seals his fate. Revis has a $2 million option bonus due March 10, which if declined would make him a free agent. Revis has $6 million in salary guaranteed this season whether the Jets keep or cut him, but his contract states that he could forfeit his guarantee if he “engages in personal conduct reasonably judged by Club to adversely affect or reflect on Club.’’ Revis’s guarantee also defaults if he “is fined or suspended by the NFL or Club for Conduct Detrimental’’ or “is fined or suspended for violation of the NFL Personal Conduct Policy.’’ Revis is no stranger to springtime contract drama, but this year it will be whether the Jets go after his money, and whether he can land another job in the NFL (or even wants to) . . . Count us among those surprised that defensive coordinator Matt Patricia wore the Goodell-as-clown T-shirt in a public setting after the Patriots returned from the Super Bowl. For a coach with goals of becoming a head coach one day, Patricia just gave the other 31 NFL owners reason to wonder if Patricia has the maturity and persona to be the face of a franchise . . . The release of Packers cornerback Sam Shields last week personifies the inherent conflict facing the NFL and its players concerning concussions. Shields, a former Pro Bowl selection now labeled as a “concussion guy,’’ will likely have trouble finding employment again in the NFL. All this does is incentivize players to not report their concussions, for fear of losing work . . . It’s becoming harder and harder to feel sympathy for Terrell Owens with his incessant whining over not getting elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He has tweeted at length about a #FlawedProcess, has said he “lost all respect’’ for the Hall, got into a public spat with Cris Carter, said that he would never attend his induction ceremony if and when he makes it, and said the “Hall of Fame doesn’t mean anything to me.’’ All this does is reinforce the image that kept him out of the Hall, of a drama queen who tore teams apart. Someone needs to tell T.O. to chill out and stay out of the media. Michael Irvin didn’t get in until his third try. Carter didn’t get in until his sixth. Art Monk didn’t get in until his eighth. Andre Reed not until his ninth. Owens’s time will come. Enough with the whining.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin. Material from interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report.
