Patriots fans have a favorite saying: “In Bill we trust.’’ But that trust was put to the test in 2017.
Bill Belichick made a flurry of moves last season in free agency and the trade market, but his record was a bit spotty.
Stephon Gilmore was good, but not $13 million-per-year good. Brandin Cooks was fine, but not first-round-pick fine. Dwayne Allen was a bust in the passing game. Mike Gillislee was a healthy scratch for the second half of the season. Rex Burkhead couldn’t stay healthy. Phillip Dorsett couldn’t get on Tom Brady’s good side. Kony Ealy, James O’Shaughnessy, and Conor McDermott were acquired with draft picks, and all three were dumped before playing a snap. And of course, the trade of Jimmy Garoppolo for a second-rounder and benching of Malcolm Butler in the Super Bowl remain head-scratchers.
The Patriots still made it to the Super Bowl, so we can’t be too tough on Belichick. But he and the front office need to do better this offseason, to rebuild the defense on the fly and give Brady enough support to win that sixth championship.
NFL free agency officially begins on Wednesday at 4 p.m., but the Patriots have already gotten started. On Saturday they traded for nose tackle Danny Shelton, the Browns’ 12th overall pick in 2015, to replace Alan Branch, though the trade won’t become official until Wednesday.
The Patriots should enter the new league year with about $25 million in salary cap space after a few more roster moves are made (we’re looking at you, Allen and Shea McClellin). The Patriots won’t be going too crazy in free agency, but have enough space to make a couple of big signings or trades, if they so choose.
Let’s take a look at the Patriots’ most glaring roster holes, and how they can fill them in free agency:
1. LEFT TACKLE
Under contract: Antonio Garcia (rookie), Andrew Jelks (rookie), Marcus Cannon (right tackle).
High-end solution: Nate Solder.
Value options: LaAdrian Waddle, Cameron Fleming, Chris Hubbard, Justin Pugh, Andre Smith, Greg Robinson, Seantrel Henderson.
Analysis: The Patriots have four-fifths of their offensive line under contract for 2018, but have a glaring hole at left tackle. Garcia, last year’s third-round pick, could ultimately be the long-term answer, but the Patriots can’t enter the season with a left tackle who hasn’t played an NFL snap and missed his entire rookie year with an injury.
Solder is the best of a weak crop of free agent tackles, and if he were to truly test the market, he could probably land a deal similar to or better than the four-year, $53 million deal ($25 million guaranteed) that Russell Okung got from the Chargers last offseason.
There has been chatter in the last week that Solder won’t be easy to re-sign, though it feels as though that is coming more from his agent than Solder himself. Solder has established roots here in New England, and probably can be convinced to re-sign for less than his market value.
The Patriots, though, are in a position where they pretty much have to bring Solder back. Last year’s backups, Waddle and Fleming, are great depth pieces, but neither is starter-worthy.
The other left tackles available are busts or over the hill. It’s hard to find players who are trade candidates, as any decent left tackle is going to be kept by his team. And the draft doesn’t seem like the answer, as A) this isn’t considered a great year for offensive tackles; and B) entering the season with a rookie left tackle protecting the 41-year-old Brady doesn’t seem like a good idea.
So it looks as if it’s Solder-or-bust for the Patriots. They can’t afford to mess around with this one.
2. DEFENSIVE END
Under contract: Trey Flowers, Deatrich Wise, Eric Lee, Derek Rivers (ACL), Geneo Grissom, Adam Butler.
High-end solutions: Adrian Clayborn, Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson.
Value options: James Harrison, Pernell McPhee, Trent Murphy, Derrick Shelby, Courtney Upshaw, Lamarr Houston, Sam Acho, Mitch Unrein, Connor Barwin, Tank Carradine.
Analysis: Flowers is a budding young star and Wise had a nice rookie season as a third-down pass rusher. But the Patriots badly need to get stronger and more athletic on the edge. Lee, Grissom, and Butler are backups at best, while Rivers is in the same boat as Garcia — someone who has yet to play an NFL snap after missing his entire rookie season because of injury. On top of it, Rivers has to make the big transition from a small school (Youngstown State) to the NFL.
Fortunately, there will be plenty of options in free agency. Clayborn would fit the Patriots nicely. He had 9½ sacks last year (six in one game), and at 6 feet 3 inches, 280 pounds has the size the Patriots like on the edge. But he could command a decent contract.
Otherwise there is no shortage of veterans who could be signed on a one- or two-year value deal (Unrein, with a history of playing special teams, could be a nice fit). Harrison seemed to fit in well at the end of last season, and could be a good depth piece, though the Patriots shouldn’t just sign him and be done with it.
The Patriots also would do well to invest in an edge defender or two in the draft.
3. LINEBACKER
Under contract: Dont’a Hightower (pectoral), Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts, Nicholas Grigsby, Harvey Langi.
High-end solutions: NaVorro Bowman, Zach Brown, Preston Brown.
Value options: Brian Cushing, Derrick Johnson, Marquis Flowers.
Trade possibilities: Danny Trevathan, K.J. Wright.
Analysis: The Patriots have a decent linebacking unit if Hightower, Van Noy, and Roberts can stay healthy. But counting on that is unrealistic (especially for Hightower), and Roberts proved with his extended playing time last year that he’s really better suited for a backup role.
The Patriots need to add an athletic, sideline-to-sideline linebacker, and there are several decent options in free agency. Bowman had a great season for the 49ers and Raiders, though at 29 and with major knee and Achilles’ injuries on his résumé, the Patriots may not want to make a big investment. The two Browns, one from Washington and one from Buffalo, are tackling machines who would fit in nicely.
Cushing and Johnson are scrap-heap types who could fill the David Harris role (hopefully better than Harris did) as a savvy veteran and locker room mentor. Flowers has good speed and is a solid special teams contributor, and would be a smart re-sign if he’s willing to come back at, say $1.5 million or so.
And with the Bears and Seahawks selling off most of their defenses, the Patriots should give a call about Trevathan and Wright, who no longer have any guaranteed money in their contracts.
4. TIGHT END
Under contract: Rob Gronkowski (?), Jacob Hollister, Will Tye.
High-end solutions: Trey Burton, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.
Value options: Ed Dickson, Luke Willson. Dion Sims? Jared Cook?
Trade possibility: Charles Clay, Maxx Williams.
Analysis: Gronk’s situation certainly complicates matters. Do the Patriots just need to find a new No. 2 tight end to replace Allen, or will they also need a new No. 1 tight end?
Assuming that Gronk returns, the Patriots have several decent options for a second tight end. The player we love is Burton, the guy who threw a touchdown pass in the Super Bowl and would be the perfect Patriot.
Burton didn’t get much of a chance with the Eagles, catching 63 passes for 629 yards and 6 touchdowns over four seasons. But he’s extremely athletic (a former college QB at Florida) and versatile (he played 300 snaps on offense and 308 on special teams last year).
He’s more of an H-back and isn’t much of a blocker, but would be an intriguing weapon in the Patriots’ offense. Unfortunately for them, he should have several suitors in free agency and could price himself out of New England.
Sefarian-Jenkins is more of a complete tight end, and if the Patriots are willing to pay $5 million-$6 million, he could be a younger version of Martellus Bennett.
Dickson and Willson would be good value signings, while Sims and Cook could become available soon as salary cap cuts are made. And the Patriots should check in with Buffalo to see if it is willing to part with Clay, an athletic H-back who hasn’t lived up to the massive contract he signed with the previous regime. Clay still has two years and $9 million left on that. Williams, a former highly touted second-round pick, has been a bust in Baltimore.
5. RUNNING BACK
Under contract: James White, Mike Gillislee, Brandon Bolden.
High-end solutions: Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead.
Value options: Frank Gore, Damien Williams, Jeremy Hill, Jerick McKinnon, Doug Martin.
Analysis: Gillislee didn’t work out well for the Patriots in his first year, but early indications are that he’ll be back for another season at $2 million, according to a league source. Still, the Patriots need to find two more running backs.
The answers could be the players that were here last year, Lewis and Burkhead. Lewis will be tough to re-sign, as he is looking for top dollar on the open market. But 27-year-old running backs with injury histories don’t usually cash out in free agency, so let’s see what happens there. Burkhead has the versatility and skill set to thrive in the Patriots’ offense, though durability is a big issue with him.
Of the two, it seems likelier that Burkhead would return, especially since he contributes on special teams.
The Patriots don’t spend more than $4 million per year on running backs, and several good value options will be available. Gore will be 35 in May, but he’s still a tough runner, can play on all three downs, was surprisingly decent for a horrible Colts team last year, and is probably hungry to win a championship.
Williams never got much of a chance in Miami, but he’s also a three-down back who can contribute in a number of areas, and he also visited the Patriots last year when he was a restricted free agent, so the interest is there.
Hill was productive for three years in Cincinnati before falling off last season, while McKinnon is a speedster who could replace Lewis in the backfield and on kickoffs. Martin is worth taking a look at if the Patriots can get him for the minimum.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin.
