WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s downward polling spiral, and predictions of a potential rout in November, have introduced complacency as a new enemy for Democrats, who have a simple warning for their troops: Don’t get cocky.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign officials and Democratic lawmakers are gleeful about Trump’s mid-summer meltdown, but still fret about the danger of underestimating the New York real estate mogul. Never mind that Trump has fallen behind in some polls by double digits, or that the electoral map favors Democrats.
The historic presidential race pitting the first female nominee of a major party against a celebrity businessman and political outsider had defied all political conventions and still promises to be a topsy turvy, lump-in-your-throat ride until the very end.
“I wouldn’t be too quick to rejoice in Mr. Trump’s faux pas,’’ said Representative Michael Capuano, a Massachusetts Democrat. “People have underestimated Donald Trump since day one, and I was amongst those people. I won’t underestimate him again.’’
Just one day after Senator Elizabeth Warren taunted Trump with a tweet about him “losing to a girl,’’ she told the Globe that she “won’t relax until the election is over and Trump is declared the loser — big time.’’
“The Republicans underestimated Trump throughout the primary process, and we can’t make the same mistake in the general election,’’ the Massachusetts Democrat said in an e-mailed statement.
Since the Republican and Democratic conventions ended last month, Clinton’s poll numbers have jumped; the latest national average calculated by Real Clear Politics gives her a nearly eight-point lead.
Clinton has deep vulnerabilities. For starters, she has not been viewed as trustworthy by a majority of Americans, and her unfavorable rating in polls averages 54 percent. But Trump thus far has been unable to focus attention on his rival’s weaknesses, including continued controversy over her use of a private e-mail server while she was secretary of state and a subsequent FBI investigation. A new batch released Tuesday raised questions about ties between donors to her family’s charity and the State Department.
While a Gallup survey showed in July that 82 percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, Trump also has not tied that successfully to President Obama and the Democrats’ choice for his successor. Instead of making the election a referendum on Obama and Clinton, he has made it a referendum on himself by making inflammatory statements and yanking media attention away from anyone else.
Moreover, despite numerous pledges by Republicans that Trump would turn a corner and act more presidential, he has shown little inclination to become a more disciplined candidate. In recent weeks, Trump has criticized the Muslim parents of an Army captain killed in combat, invited the Russians to hack into State Department e-mail, and on Tuesday, suggested that gun advocates take action against Clinton, which was widely interpreted as a threat of violence.
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, a key Trump ally, denounced the reaction to Trump’s comment as ‘‘absurdity.’’
‘‘He’s better than he was a week ago — I think he’s learned some very painful lessons,’’ Gingrich said, according to the Associated Press. He predicted Trump would ‘‘continue to grow’’ as a candidate.
Trump also has not aired campaign spots, which would have sunk most candidates by now, but his strategy of dominating news cycles is keeping him at least competitive.
“This is about the thousandth time I’ve heard pundits say Trump has really done it now,’’ said Senator Claire McCaskill, a Missouri Democrat. “Last summer everybody was chortling about what a ridiculous notion Trump was. Then he marches right to the nomination.’’
While many within the Washington Beltway may view Clinton’s victory as a foregone conclusion, McCaskill said, “I live in the wrong part of the country to take any part of this election for granted.’’
Capuano said he has been urging his fellow Democrats to avoid letting down their guard since the Democratic National Convention, where he delivered the message over breakfast at a downtown Philadelphia hotel.
“They better hear this. Otherwise they are going to wake up Nov. 9 and not feel very good,’’ Capuano told the Globe. “Even after the worst month that I’ve ever seen any politician go through, he’s still within striking distance. Any other human being who has done half of what he’s done would have been discounted by now.’’
Robby Mook, Clinton’s campaign manager, sent out a fund-raising e-mail to donors this week that was obtained by the Globe. The subject line? “Wake up call.’’
“We are pleased with where the race stands but cannot rest for a single day or take anything for granted,’’ Mook wrote. “We have to take seriously the threat that Donald Trump could outraise us.’’
The Clinton campaign raised $90 million in July, its best month so far. Trump, who only recently started fund-raising, reported $80 million, far exceeding expectations.
“As we’ve seen over the past month, this race remains incredibly fluid, much more so than recent presidential election,’’ Mook wrote. “We fully expect the polls to tighten again.’’
Much of Democrats’ optimism was fueled this week by Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan political analyst whose Tuesday column in the Washington Post predicted that three months from Election Day, the die has already been cast in Clinton’s favor.
In an interview, Rothenberg said that he’s received a flurry of criticism from both sides in response to his conclusion. Republicans accused him of bias; Democrats feared he would jinx their candidate. “Look, I’m just a handicapper,’’ he said.
The Clinton campaign has many reasons to be confident, Rothenberg said, but “it’s not as if everybody’s going to hibernate now for three months.’’
“I’ve gotten so many tweets at me from so many regular people telling me what an idiot I am that it makes me believe that the Trump people really think they’re in the game,’’ Rothenberg said. “And as long as they’re punching, you better believe that the Democrats and the Clinton people will punch back.’’
Representative Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat, said promising poll numbers don’t bring him much comfort.
“Oftentimes during the day I feel good about the way things are going,’’ McGovern said. “Then I go to bed at night and wake up in a cold sweat remembering a conversation with someone I had on an airplane who loves Donald Trump.’’
Former congressman Barney Frank, another Massachusetts Democrat, warned that even if a Clinton win is near certain, “it’s not just important that Donald Trump lose, but that he loses worst that anybody ever has so the reasonable conservatives can take their party back. We need him to be totally repudiated.’’
Tracy Jan can be reached at tracy.jan@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @TracyJan.
