CLEVELAND — The Red Sox have finished in last place two straight years and three of the last four. Some prognosticators have picked them to win the American League East, make the playoffs, and even get to the World Series.
Spring training didn’t solve a lot of issues, and now the real season begins Monday.
There are many things that have to go right for Boston to be an elite team this year. We delve into nine topics germane to the Sox’ potential to start strong and stay strong:
1. Will Hanley Ramirez stay healthy, happy, and productive?
He won many of us over in spring training. He played well at his new position, first base, though he didn’t have to scoop many throws out of the dirt. Ramirez was never really tested except for a handful of times, with mixed results. The Sox need Ramirez to have an April like he did last year (.293 average, 10 homers, 22 RBIs, .999 OPS), and then keep going. They need him to hit for power in a doubles-oriented lineup. Will playing first base (and occasionally DHing) help him to stay healthy and productive? While he’s won us over with his attitude and maturity in camp, he has to keep that up over a full season. He was once one of the top players in baseball. He won the National League batting title in 2009 with a .342 average (Pablo Sandoval finished second at .330).
2. How long will Sandoval stay on the bench?
John Farrell has said Sandoval has the chance to reclaim the third base job, so does that mean Travis Shaw is at risk of losing it? It seems the best scenario here is for the Sox to trade Sandoval, with San Diego the best bet. The Sox have said there will be times when Sandoval plays third and Shaw moves to first. But how often? You want continuity for Shaw, a young player with only five career starts at third base. Sandoval, to his credit, has taken the high road and remained positive, but will it stay that way?
3. Rick Porcello didn’t have a good camp, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have a good season.
However, for a guy being paid like a No. 1 starter, there is pressure on him to be good and not just adequate. If he is, the Sox are going to go places. There’s still the fact that Dave Dombrowski traded him to the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes because he didn’t want to devote the same dollars to Porcello that the Sox did.
4. Farrell has read about his “short leash,’’ and that a good start is required to stay on the job.
Dombrowski said he would never say that about his sitting manager. Yet facts are facts. Torey Lovullo is the bench coach with a contract similar to a first-year manager. It was smart to reward Lovullo for a job well done as interim manager, and in case Farrell wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. But Farrell is healthy, and now the situation looks a little awkward. If the Red Sox get off to a slow start, we’ll find out if Farrell is indeed on a short leash. Nineteen of their first 32 games are against division opponents.
5. How will David Ortiz respond in his final season?
He wants to go out on top, like Mike Mussina did in 2008 when he won 20 games for the Yankees. Ortiz could easily put up his normal 30-homer/100-RBI season. And he really needs to do that, because he’s still the most dangerous hitter in Boston’s lineup. Anything below Ortiz’s usual standards could be disastrous because there’s really nobody who can replace that production in the lineup. Ortiz is traditionally a slow starter — his career average in March/April (.270) is his lowest for any month. Should we panic if he has a poor April?
6. Dustin Pedroia’s spring training showed a leaner, quicker guy than a couple of years before.
The health issue is huge here. He’s an inspiring figure to teammates, but if he’s hurt and not in the lineup, it takes away from that intangible stuff that’s so important to a team’s success.
7. Blake Swihart’s potential is off the charts.
In his second season, he needs to show what all the fuss is about. His forté is hitting, so we need to see the offense really come out, and also see improvement in blocking balls. Christian Vazquez is waiting in Pawtucket, so Swihart needs to hit and play good defense from Day 1 to put off cries of Vazquez saving the day.
8. Clay Buchholz will open as the No. 2 starter.
He’s had problems staying healthy beyond July, and that can’t happen again. The biggest question with this team is how the starting pitching will shape up after David Price. How consistent will Buchholz, Porcello, and Joe Kelly be?
9. Eduardo Rodriguez will open the season on the disabled list.
He is the biggest hope for consistency and outstanding performance in the rotation beyond Price. Everyone is looking forward to seeing Price mentor Rodriguez the way he did Chris Archer, and the way James Shields did for him with the Rays.
Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickcafardo.
