Black Friday is not yet here, but shoppers could be forgiven for not noticing. Heavy promotions are touting early sales already well underway in stores or online.
There’s Best Buy’s “Beat the Black Friday Rush Sale,’’ Walmart’s straightforward “Pre Black Friday Deals,’’ and Target’s Black Friday preview sale offering “10 Days of Deals.’’ And that’s all before a single turkey has been basted.
The competition to lure retail traffic into stores or online is fierce and absent new or must-have products that attract crowds, retailers are competing to be the first to draw in customers, said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with the NPD Group in New York.
“It’s not even about Black Friday week anymore, it’s now Black November. Retailers of all kinds and of all levels are putting out opportunities for consumers,’’ Cohen said. “We’re seeing the shift in the chaotic nature of Black Friday becoming much more sophisticated, civil, and humane.’’
But that doesn’t mean it won’t be a good year for retailers.
The Retailers Association of Massachusetts predicted Thursday that holiday sales would increase 3.9% percent to $16.4 billion over last year based on a survey of its 4,000 retail and restaurant industry members. By contrast, sales were up 4.7 percent in 2015.
That’s slightly higher than national estimates of a 3.6 percent increase in holiday spending, according to the National Retail Federation, a trade group based in Washington, D.C. Last year, spending between November and December rose 3 percent.
Of course, such predictions can be notoriously flawed, in part because of the sheer number of factors affecting customers’ willingness to make a purchase. The Massachusetts survey was conducted in October before the presidential election, and it remains unclear how the election could shape shopping sentiment.
In general, holiday spending in Massachusetts has been on the rise every year for the last six seasons, said Jon Hurst, president of the Massachusetts Retail Association.
Online holiday sales are expected to see a particular bump, with increases of as much as 10 percent both in Massachusetts and nationally, according to both retail groups.
Hurst said a recent survey also showed about 94% of the state’s retailers compete against businesses who offer the same products and services online, yet only 42% of those Massachusetts merchants are selling online. The association is planning free digital training for small sellers early next year.
As Black Friday deals surge, Hurst said he is hopeful that low gas prices, a falling unemployment rate, and bevy of sales, will spur shoppers to open their wallets. And he encouraged consumers to support small business owners in their midst.
“Where we invest our dollars makes a difference in the local economy,’’ Hurst said. “Jobs depend on it.’’
Megan Woolhouse can be reached at megan.woolhouse @globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @megwoolhouse.
