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Interest rates on rise, and consumers will feel it
Jerome Powell is the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Borrowing money for things like home improvements may be about to get more costly. (ivan kmit/stock.adobe.com)
By Evan Horowitz
Globe Staff

As part of its ongoing effort to moderate economic growth and keep inflation at bay, the Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to raise interest rates another quarter-percent. It’s the first move in what’s expected to be a busy year, with Fed members indicating they expect to pass two or three additional hikes before next January.

By historical standards, interest rates remain quite low. The rate the Fed controls — called the federal funds rate — will now hover between 1.5 and 1.75 percent, far below the 5.25 percent it reached before the financial crisis.

But as the increases pile up in the months ahead, so, too, will the effects on consumers.

That’s good news for retirees, who can look forward to higher returns on their savings — something that’s been unattainable in recent years, with most banks paying interest of well below 2 percent.

Bond investors might also be pleased with the rate-hiking news, as it will probably boost the returns on US treasuries and other bond offerings, allowing for better payoffs at relatively low risk.

But what’s good for savers may be rough on debtors. In a widening ripple, the Fed’s moves will push up the cost of mortgages, car payments, government debt, student loans, and even credit card borrowing. And it’s not just new borrowers who will face higher rates: Anyone carrying an adjustable loan will probably see the monthly payment increase, in step with the Fed’s hikes.

Believe it or not, this is part of the point. Rate hikes are explicitly designed to slow the economy by raising the cost of debt — thereby leaving people with less money to spend.

When mortgage payments go up and credit card interest rates spike, something else in the family budget has to give. And the higher rates go, the more people will have to cut back, which translates into slower economic growth.

And while it may sound like a misbegotten goal, there’s a good reason the Fed sometimes aims to curb spending and slow the economy; otherwise, an overheating economy can trigger rising — even spiraling — inflation.

A simplified example: If all your neighbors decide to take out home equity loans to renovate their kitchens, that might spark a bidding war for contractors’ time, driving up the cost of everybody’s project. Something similar can happen on an economy-wide scale. When borrowing is cheap, and spending on the rise, people can end up in competition for scarce resources — which pushes up prices.

By raising interest rates in a timely fashion, the Fed can ensure that we don’t end up in that situation. And Fed members have at least one good reason to believe now is the right time: Unemployment is approaching a 50-year low, suggesting that one of our most precious resources might be getting dangerously scarce — namely, spare workers.

But there is an uncomfortable burr in this theory. Right now, inflation is low, not high, and it shows little sign of climbing.

As of January, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — core PCE — stood at 1.5 percent, far below the official 2 percent target. Not to mention that 2 percent is supposed to be an average, not a ceiling — meaning that actual inflation should be above that level half the time, something that hasn’t happened in six years.

Herein lies the biggest risk in the Fed’s effort to slow economic growth by raising rates repeatedly this year and another three times in 2019. By definition, slower growth will mean fewer new jobs and diminished wage growth.

Nothing is written in stone, though. Depending on what Fed members see in the months ahead, they could still adjust their plans. They made this point explicit in a statement released Wednesday, saying, “In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.’’

But for the moment, their plan is to push harder on the economic brakes — even at the cost of jobs and overall growth.

Evan Horowitz digs through data to find information that illuminates the policy issues facing Massachusetts and the nation. He can be reached at evan.horowitz@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeHorowitz.