Print      
US growth has slowed, Fed says as it keeps rates steady
“The economic recovery has clearly come a long way, although it is not complete,’’ Fed chair Janet Yellen said. (Associated Press file 2015)
By Binyamin Appelbaum
New York Times

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that domestic economic growth slowed in the final months of 2015 and pointed to increased concern about the weakness of the global economy.

In a statement published after a two-day meeting of its policy making committee, the Fed, as expected, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and said it still expected to increase that rate “gradually’’ in the coming months as economic conditions improve.

But the statement suggested the Fed’s confidence in the economic outlook has deteriorated since December, when the central bank raised its benchmark rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

The Fed noted the strength of some economic measuring sticks, including continued job growth, more spending by businesses and consumers, and the revival of the housing market.

It removed language, however, describing the chances of faster and slower growth as “balanced.’’ Instead, it said “economic growth slowed late last year,’’ and it suggested there was now more risk to the downside.

“The committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook,’’ it said.

The decision to hold rates steady, in a range between 0.25 and 0.5 percent, was unanimous among the 10 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed said all members were able to attend the meeting in person despite the weekend snowstorm in Washington.

Many analysts still expect the Fed to raise rates at its next meeting, in March, but a growing number argue that the Fed’s concerns may push back the next rate increase to the summer or later.

The Fed is struggling to gauge the impact of global weakness on the domestic economy. Some officials see little evidence that slow growth in the rest of the developed world, and problems in China and other developing nations, will interfere significantly with relatively strong domestic growth. Others, however, argue that global developments are weighing on the United States. The Fed pointed to one vulnerability in its statement, noting the weakness of exports as the dollar has gained strength.

The recent turmoil in financial markets is another worry.

When the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate last month, officials said they expected to raise rates by as much as a percentage point in 2016.

Low interest rates encourage borrowing and risk-taking, contributing to faster economic growth. The Fed has said that it wants to raise rates slowly to gradually reduce those incentives because the economy is gaining strength.

Janet L. Yellen, the central bank chairwoman, said at a news conference after the announcement Wednesday that “the economic recovery has clearly come a long way, although it is not complete.’’

But economic growth has not gained momentum in the new year. Equity markets have fallen sharply, erasing wealth and weighing on confidence, while the dollar continues to strengthen, limiting the demand for US exports.

Job growth remains relatively strong and consumers are spending more money, but forecasters generally estimate that the economy expanded at an annual rate below 1 percent in the last three months of 2015. The federal government is scheduled to deliver a preliminary estimate of fourth quarter growth on Friday.

The Fed also is wrestling with the persistent sluggishness of inflation, both a symptom of the broader malaise and an economic problem in its own right.

The Fed aims to keep prices rising at about 2 percent a year, but it has consistently fallen short since the recession that lasted from the end of 2007 to the middle of 2009. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, an index of personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, climbed by 1.3 percent during the 12 months through November, the most recent available data.

The Fed said in December that it wanted to see “actual and expected progress’’ toward its 2 percent goal as it considers further rate increases. The official meeting minutes said many policy makers were concerned inflation could weaken further.

Public expectations about future inflation also are eroding, a problem because those expectations help to shape reality. People who expect prices to rise more quickly, for example, may press for higher wages, which in turn can lead to higher prices as businesses seek to compensate for payroll increases.

That pressure may now be flowing in the opposite direction. A regular consumer survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found expectations of inflation in three years’ time had declined to 2.8 percent from 3.3 percent over the last two years.