When: Sunday, 1 p.m.
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
TV, radio: CBS, WBZ-FM (98.5)
When the Bengals run
This is a two-headed monster featuring the thunderous Jeremy Hill (6 feet 1 inch, 235 pounds) and the lightning-like Giovani Bernard (5-9, 205). Hill has an excellent combination of size, speed, and slashability. He has a top-notch first step and good vision. He accelerates at the second level and runs at good pad level and with good balance, allowing him to deflect hits without breaking stride. Hill has good lateral movement and will twist and turn away from defenders and out of tackles. Bernard is the perfect complement and more of a home run threat. He has quick feet and can explode around the corner. He will put together multiple moves seamlessly and can make defenders look helpless as they grab for air. Though he lacks the size to be a consistent between-the-tackles threat, Bernard has muscular legs and will show surprising pop to drive through defenders. Center Russell Bodine (6-3, 308) has good size and surliness. He can stun and then pummel his defender. Left guard Clint Boling (6-5, 305) is smart and athletic. He takes good angles and works through the whistle. Boling can get overpowered but he won’t get outworked. Right guard Kevin Zeitler (6-4, 320) has great power and can steamroll guys. Patriots linemen Alan Branch and Malcom Brown are monsters at the point of attack, and linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower fly to the ball. Linebacker Elandon Roberts has a real nose for the ball.
EDGE: Patriots
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
Cincinnati offense: 83.8 (26th)
New England defense: 86.4 (ninth)
When the Bengals pass
Andy Dalton has a strong, accurate arm and good timing. Dalton sees the field well from the pocket (despite being slightly undersized at 6-2) and will find the open man more often than not. He leads his receivers nicely from the pocket and is an underrated athlete who can spin it on the run while keeping his eyes downfield. Dalton is streaky, though. When he’s in a groove, he can tear secondaries apart with precision passes. When he’s struggling, he gets torn apart; he holds the ball too long, will take some big shots, and fumbles. Dalton’s top target is A.J. Green. The 6-4, 210-pounder has a rare blend of size, quickness, and athleticism, and can make plays at all three levels. Green can catch it quickly and take off. He’s fearless over the middle on intermediate routes, and tracks the ball well on deep routes. He’s a nightmare one-on-one because he shifts in and out of his breaks without decelerating, often catching defenders flat-footed and off-balance. Look for Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan to get physical with Green and get help from his safety friends. Bengals receiver Brandon LaFell (6-3, 210) has settled in nicely and looks more like the 2014 JoJo rather than the 2015 JoJo that struggled mightily in New England. LaFell has good quickness and awareness and will make difficult catches, though he still has lapses in concentration. Giovani Bernard is a superior receiver out of the backfield.
EDGE: Bengals
PASSING YARDS PER GAME:
Cincinnati offense: 282.6 (fifth)
New England defense: 258.6 (18th)
When the Patriots run
LeGarrette Blount has been nursing a hip injury, and that may have contributed to his sluggish performance against the Browns. The 6-foot, 250ish-pound brute will be needed to help dent a physical Bengal front seven. Blount doesn’t have an explosive first step, but if he picks the right gap, he will build speed and get downhill. Blount has the upper-body strength and leg drive to make the tough yards after the first hit. He thrives on contact, and when he gets into a groove, he will help wear down a defense. James White is coming off a productive performance and could to see an increase in carries. White is light on his feet and can shimmy and shake his way through defenders in the open field, though he still has trouble consistently breaking past that first contact. The young interior three on the Patriots offensive line is developing nice cohesion and chemistry. Center David Andrews moves well laterally and is technically sound. Left guard Joe Thuney continues to look un-rookie-like, pounding straight ahead and sustaining his blocks. Right guard Shaq Mason is a quiet, efficient road grader. He plays with strength and deceptive athleticism. Bengals nose tackle Domata Peko (6-3, 325) has superhuman strength and generally dominates his matchups. The linebackers are a scary lot. Karlos Dansby and Rey Maualuga are instinctive and rangy. Vontaze Burfict is a heavy thumper who plays with an edge.
EDGE: Bengals
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME:
New England offense: 128.0 (fourth)
Cincinnati defense: 114.0 (19th)
When the Patriots pass
Tom Brady returns to the house he built after knocking the rust off in Cleveland. OK, there was very little rust. Brady was brilliant in his debut, distributing the ball like a master tactician as he marched his mates up and down the field against the overmatched Browns. The task will be a bit taller against the Bengals. Brady reads defenses and processes information like nobody’s business and always finds the open man. He will get pressure in this one. Bengals tackle Geno Atkins is exceptionally disruptive up the middle and will prevent Brady from stepping up in the pocket. End Carlos Dunlap can bring the heat and will alter passes. Brady has the best tight end tandem in the universe in Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett. Both are adept receivers and relentless blockers. Gronkowski lines up in a zillion spots, runs great routes, and has strong hands. Bennett sheds his defender quickly and has sure hands. Both are runaway trains after the catch. Julian Edelman gets open with quickness and precise cuts. He goes all out on every play and has a great catch radius for his size. Chris Hogan is extremely smart and versatile, and Brady lines him up everywhere. Hogan’s an excellent athlete and has deceptive speed and tracks the ball well. Danny Amendola is fast and clutch. Cincinnati corners Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick are gambling ballhawks. Safeties Shawn Williams and George Iloka pack a punch.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME:
New England offense: 249.2 (14th)
Cincinnati defense: 224.6 (11th)
Bengals’ key player: LB Vontaze Burfict
This 6-foot-1-inch, 255-pound linebacker is one of the most physically fierce and emotional players in the league. He’s instinctual and hits everything in sight. Whether the whistle has been blown or not is irrelevant to him. Watch your knees with this guy around.
How he beats you: With serious intensity. Burfict is muscular, athletic, and fast. He reads plays in a flash. He can fill running lanes, pressure the pocket, and drop back and cover tight ends.
How to shut him down: By matching that intensity. Run right at him and wear him down. The more hits he absorbs, the more frustrated he gets. When Burfict gets frustrated, he loses his focus and his effectiveness.
Bengals’ keys to victory
1. Orange squeeze: Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson must get Tom Brady in a vise grip quickly. It’s important to throw off his timing, because few get rid of the ball faster.
2. Orange whip: Andy Dalton must make decisions and get the ball out quickly. When he dilly-dallies, he gets pounded, and the fumbles and interceptions soon follow.
3. Orange county: The tailback tandem of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard has to gobble up chunks of real estate to grind down the clock and wear down the New England defense.
Patriots keys to victory
1. Max protect: Quarterbacks are dropping like flies across the NFL, so keeping Tom Brady upright is imperative (duh). Tackle Nate Solder is rounding back into form, but help always helps.
2. Max pain: The Patriots must match the Bengals’ intensity and physicality without getting sucked into the visitors’ sometimes bush-league, undisciplined play. Be on alert for late hits.
3. Max attack: Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett put on quite a show in Cleveland. Expect more from the tight end towers until teams scheme a way to stop or slow them.
PREDICTION: Patriots 36, Bengals 17
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com.
