The financial crisis is nearly a decade old. The last recession ended in 2009. But as central bankers across the world are realizing, the emergency measures they put in place at the height of the economic meltdown are getting harder to withdraw, even as they become less effective.
Across the globe, from Japan, to Sweden to the United States, policy makers are either pulling back plans to ease the extraordinary stimulus or doubling down on them as low inflation, volatile financial markets, and weak economic growth take a toll on businesses and workers.
Many economists now believed that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate only two times this year, instead of the four projected in December when policy makers lifted their benchmark rate by a quarter point after keeping it near zero since 2008. In the minutes of the Fed’s January meeting, released Wednesday, officials worried that wobbling financial markets and falling oil and commodity prices could pose a greater risk to the US economy.
Last month, Japan’s central bank adopted negative interest rates, which charge financial institutions to keep deposits at the central bank, to spur lending and spending.
The European Central Bank charges banks 0.3 percent to hold money and has slashed its benchmark lending rate at 0.05 percent. It has signalled that it could cut even further into negative territory when policy makers meet in March.
“It just shows how powerful and damaging that crisis was,’’ said Dan Sichel, an economics professor at Wellesley College who worked as a senior staffer at the Fed until 2011. “There were extraordinary and powerful policy steps taken. But it has taken the [US]economy a long time to shake it off and it will take economies in other parts of the world even longer.’’
The difficulties central banks are having in unwinding their emergency measures also show the limits of monetary policy, analysts said. For the most part, central banks have been on their own since the financial crisis and global recession, getting little help from governments in the form of tax cuts and increased spending that can also stimulate economies.
The problem for central banks like the Fed is that the banking system remains the key channel for spreading monetary stimulus into the wider economy, and low rates hurt bank profits and hence, their incentive to lend to businesses and consumers.
With some countries adopting negative interest rates, which essentially acts as a tax on banks, these institutions could be pushed into further distress by adding more costs. Some economists fear banks could respond by shrinking their lending, hurting business expansion and hiring, weakening consumer spending and confidence, and eventually triggering a downward spiral that hobbles the economy.
On Wednesday, analysts at Morgan Stanley warned that the European Central Bank could reduce Euro-area bank earnings by as much as 10 percent by pushing the deposit rates deeper into negative territory. The analysts called negative interest rates a “dangerous experiment.’’
Investors, concerned about bank profits, troubled loans in the energy sector, and uncertainty over China’s slowdown, have punished bank stocks, not just in Europe, but also in the United States.
The stock price for Bank of America Corp. of Charlotte, N.C., has fallen more than 20 percent from beginning of January, to $12.57 a share from $16.43. Shares of JP Morgan Chase & Co., of New York have slid 8 percent, from $63.62 to $58.77.
Negative interest rates are unlikely to spread to the United States, said Jim O’Sullivan, chief US economist with High Frequency Economics, a forecasting firm in Valhalla, N.Y. The US unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 percent and wages are growing slowly, suggesting that inflation might rise from a level considered too low to a rate consistent with a healthy economy, O’Sullivan said.
The US banking sector remains stable, he added; lending is up 8 percent over a year ago.
The most recent Fed survey of bank loan officers found that lenders were slightly tightening standards for business loans, but consumer credit availability continued to ease, he said.
“There’s a lot of turmoil in the market and that raises risks,’’ O’Sullivan said. But he added, “the Fed’s policy has been very successful.’’
But that monetary policy has limits, as the sluggish global economy suggests, said Sara Johnson, a senior research director of global economics at IHS Inc., a forecasting firm in Lexington.
“We’re finding that monetary policy cannot on its own carry the burden of stimulating the economy,’’ Johnson said.
Bloomberg News contributed to this report. Deirdre Fernandes can be reached at deirdre.fernandes@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @fernandesglobe.