TEHRAN — After the landmark nuclear agreement of 2015, hundreds of European, Asian, and even US companies rushed to enter Iran’s largely untapped market of 80 million people, assured by the United States and the other signatories that their investments would be safe for at least a decade.
This month, after President Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of the agreement, the companies heard a strikingly different message.
They have 180 days to leave Iran or face being barred from the US market and being hit with multibillion-dollar fines and the arrests of their chief executives for disregarding US sanctions.
In a speech Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vowed that the United States would destroy the Iranian economy with new unilateral measures that would be “the strongest sanctions in history.’’
It is too early to say how many foreign companies ultimately will pull out of Iran in the face of the US threats. The European Union has made promises to take steps to protect its companies.
But the new sanctions have undeniably complicated matters for foreign investors in Iran, particularly companies with global operations, leaving many European executives bitter.
“The message is ‘This is Rome, and Caesar has changed his mind. If we disobey, our villages will be burned to the ground,’ ’’ one said. Like every other person interviewed for this article, the executive would speak only anonymously, fearing the wrath of either Iranian or US authorities.
It remains unclear just how much overall impact the new sanctions will have. While foreign investment in Iran has doubled since the 2015 deal, the actual increase, to $4 billion from $2 billion, is not terribly significant in a $428 billion economy.
“Punishing foreign companies seems to be more about exerting power than really hurting the Iranian economy,’’ said Saeed Laylaz, an Iranian economist. “What matters really is the oil. The presence of Europeans here, not that much yet.’’
Nevertheless, the inroads made by Western businesses in the past three years are visible all along the clogged roads of the Iranian capital.
Bosch, the German home appliances producer, wants Iranians to buy their dishwashers, enormous billboards show.
The logo of ABB Global, a Swedish-Swiss conglomerate active in everything from robotics to electric power, is plastered on the side of a building. Signs hawk Barbican nonalcoholic beer, from Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional enemy.
Many of these ventures, particularly those involving high-profile companies with ties to or extensive operations in the United States, are now imperiled. Two major oil companies, Total of France and Eni of Italy, are leaving development projects.
The Danish shipping companies TORM and Maersk will no longer call on Iranian ports. An Italian steel-maker, Danieli, which a year ago opened a big factory near Tehran, will have to sell its shares and pull out.
Procter & Gamble, the US consumer goods company, which was already selling products like Head and Shoulders shampoo and Braun shavers, is laying off local staff, employees say, and heading for the exits.
But the decision is not so clear-cut for numerous other companies, mostly European and Asian, that sell products that are not under sanctions — soft drinks, chocolate bars, clothes, medical equipment, and medicine, for instance.
