KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Red Sox’ offensive explosion has been terrific, but we know in the end, for them to win the division or make the playoffs, it will come down to the quality of their pitching.
It’s hard to duplicate the 2004 staff that got at least 29 starts from five pitchers. It’s hard to duplicate the season-long pitching success from 2007 and 2013. But there has to be some stability in the pitching department because offenses fluctuate during the season.
Right now, the Sox pitching staff is in flux. It has improved tremendously since the first few weeks of the season. The rotation now ranks 23d in the majors with a 4.81 ERA.
There has been an uptick with David Price’s strong start last Thursday. Although Steven Wright had his poorest start of the season last Friday in the rain, he’ll get a chance to get back on track against the Royals in Wednesday’s day/night doubleheader. Rick Porcello has been consistently good in the first season of a four-year, $82.5 million extension. The weak link is Clay Buchholz, who still hasn’t found himself, except for a few innings after he’s given up a lot of runs.
Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly are close to returning from their rehab stints. The Red Sox have taken it slow with Rodriguez, feeling that he hasn’t gotten back to his old self after suffering a knee injury during spring training. They’d like to see him show more velocity and really let loose. He’ll make at least one more start with Triple A Pawtucket. Kelly is in line to start Saturday against the Indians at Fenway.
It will be interesting to see how the rotation shakes out when Rodriguez is ready to go.
The pitcher most adaptable to the bullpen is Kelly, though he has said he doesn’t like being a reliever because he feels it puts him at risk to be injured. Yet, he’s been injured as a starter. His 95-98-mile-per-hour fastball seems to play well out of the bullpen.
In 30 career relief appearances, Kelly is 2-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.348 WHIP, plus 49 strikeouts in 52? innings. As a starter, he’s 30-19 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.420 WHIP. He’s 1-0 with a 9.35 ERA this season, leaving his third start early with a right shoulder impingement.
Maybe this roster dilemma is a “good problem,’’ but it also could be just a problem. The big decision will be what to do with Buchholz. Would the Red Sox demote him to the bullpen? Would they seek to trade him?
The Sox have become a very competitive team internally. Not only did Travis Shaw beat out Pablo Sandoval for the third base job, but we wonder if that gutsy precedent to bench Sandoval will carry down into the pitching staff; if you’re one of five starters and not doing the job, would you lose the job regardless of your history?
It seems that the Sox would have to continue that precedent, or it could appear that they are favoring a certain player — in this case, Buchholz. On the flip side, Buchholz is completely unsuited for the bullpen.
If Kelly is the odd man out, he would join a bullpen that has set roles. Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, and Junichi Tazawa form the back end. Carson Smith is still being worked into the equation. So where would Kelly fit? You would have to replace a bullpen slot among Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Tommy Layne (out of options), and Robbie Ross Jr.
So is that a good problem?
Hembree would be the leading candidate to go to Pawtucket. You always send down pitchers who could adjust to a new role. Wright played that part last season.
The Red Sox don’t seem to have any health concerns; nobody is an obvious candidate for the disabled list. Something could happen in the next week on the health front to clear up this roster dilemma, but if not, significant decisions have to be made.
Farrell said after Buchholz’s start last Saturday that the righthander would take his next scheduled turn. It has to be a good start. Something has to change, doesn’t it? If Buchholz is still in the rotation following another tough start, then the precedent Farrell set with Sandoval isn’t much of a precedent at all.
Managing a pitching staff is the toughest and most important thing an organization has to do. While there is more of a reliance on relievers than ever before, the starters have to do their part to get to the heart of the bullpen.
The Red Sox must soon decide who the best five starters are to attain that.
Good problem? We’ll see.
Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com.
