Is it too early to preview the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics? Probably.
But newly crowned world silver medalist Ashley Wagner is already thinking about music choices and story lines for potential Olympic programs. And like many other top skaters, Wagner will be devising a two-year training plan once the current competitive season ends. So, let the Pyeongchang predictions begin.
What can the just-ended 2016 ISU World Figure Skating Championships tell us about the sport’s future in men’s and women’s singles?
On the women’s side, Wagner’s high-scoring free skate and Gracie Gold’s first-place-worthy short program at TD Garden showed that the US women have the talent to medal at the biggest international competitions. But the more significant numbers at Worlds may have been 20, 22, and 24 — the ages of US skaters Gold, Mirai Nagasu, and Wagner. The ages of the three women on the Russian team were 16, 17, and 17.
If US silver medalist Polina Edmunds, 17, hadn’t withdrawn from Worlds with a bone bruise in her right foot, the average age of the Americans would have been lower. But with the Russians there are plenty more potential teenage champions like 16-year-old gold medalist Evgenia Medvedeva waiting for their big chance.
Just take a look at the results of the World Junior Figure Skating Championships to see how frequently Russia produces promising young talent. Of the last 12 medals awarded at the world junior women’s event, nine went to Russia.
At the senior level, the Russian bench is so deep that Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, the 2015 world champion, wasn’t in Boston to defend her title. The 19-year-old wasn’t named as one of her country’s three alternates. Come Pyeongchang, there’s no doubt that Russia will bring three skaters all capable of medaling. Likely all teenagers. And potentially none of the same skaters who performed in Boston.
“I feel like [Russia] keeps putting out these athletes that are in their prime,’’ said Wagner. “So, it definitely makes my job a lot harder. They have a system that’s very efficient. It’s definitely something impressive, but the longevity is something they’re going to need to focus on over the next two years. Because these girls come in and it’s a three-year cycle and they disappear. For them, it’s longevity [that’s an issue]. For us, it’s consistency.’’
For Gold, the mental side remains the biggest issue. Always has been, probably always will be. Who knows how she will rebound and refocus after what she called a “tragic’’ free skate. Her post-competition comments were not encouraging.
Moments after her free skate Saturday night, when asked whether she thought she could win a medal at Worlds, Gold said, “It’s appearing less and less likely that that’s in my cards. But, of course, I’ll keep training and trying hard. I am in the top in the world. I still have hopes for 2018 and the 2018 podium. Just with the way the rest of the world is progressing and getting so much better, I feel like I’m not with them.’’
Wagner heard about some of Gold’s remarks and said her US teammate “was too hard on herself and [the fall from first to fourth at Worlds] is going to be something good for her and she’ll learn from it.’’
With the US men, Worlds showed what a difference two years can make. Rewind to the last major figure skating event at TD Garden, the 2014 US National Championships, and it was utter disappointment for Adam Rippon (eighth) and Max Aaron (third, but off the Sochi-bound Olympic team).
Both competitors took pride in the United States placing three men in the top 10 at Worlds for the first time since 2005 — Rippon sixth, Aaron eighth, and Grant Hochstein 10th. They also came away with renewed optimism about going to Pyeongchang and US men’s skating in general.
“We’re not here to play around,’’ said Aaron, who pointed out that Rippon was essentially 6 points from third, with one underrotated quad lutz in his long program. “If we wanted to play around, we’d go play in the sandbox. We delivered under the lights with more pressure on your home soil.’’
Still, they did not deliver like men who will one day stand on a Worlds or Olympic podium. Rippon, 26, needs more quads and Aaron, 24, needs more artistry. Plus, they’re far from guaranteed a spot on the Pyeongchang Olympic roster, especially if the US men can’t win back three spots for the Winter Games. (The final places of the two US men’s representatives at next year’s Worlds in Helsinki will need to total no more than 13 to send three American male skaters to Pyeongchang.)
For the United States, the talk of Pyeongchang could easily be 16-year-old Nathan Chen, if he stays healthy. He has the youth and the quads (two in his short program, four in his free skate) to make noise internationally. If not for hip surgery, he would have competed at TD Garden.
This summer, Rippon wants to “master’’ the quad toe and the quad salchow. Asked if he might include three quads (one in his short, two in his free skate) next season, he said it was certainly a possibility.
When it was pointed out that three quads seemed an awfully big leap for a skater who struggled to stay upright on his quad lutz this season, Rippon added: “If you told me if I would be where I am having gone through what I did two years ago, I wouldn’t have believed you. So, I don’t want to set the bar low. I want to meet my maximum potential.’’
Meanwhile, Aaron is in the midst of a three-year plan to become a more artistic skater. After his “Black Swan’’ long program at Worlds, he likes what he sees after the first year, though Johnny Weir said, “There’s not one swan feather on that boy’s body.’’
Nobody provides a reality check like Weir. And before Pyeongchang, there may be more tough ones ahead for US singles skaters.
Shira Springer can be reached at springer@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @ShiraSpringer.
