When: Sunday, 1 p.m.
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
TV, radio: CBS, WBZ-FM 98.5
When the Jets run
Bilal Powell just might be the best running back that people never talk about. A sturdy 5 feet 11 inches and 204 pounds, Powell possesses excellent lower-body strength and runs low and with great balance. Powell has good vision and feel for the game. He’s patient enough to allow his blocks to develop and quick enough to scoot through lanes when they open. Powell also is adept at finding cutback lanes and moves well in the open field, stringing together moves when he senses or sees defenders approaching. Powell doesn’t have elite first-step quickness or the ability to turn the corner consistently, but a second gear is there. Rookie Elijah McGuire (5-10, 214) is a speedy, tough, and agile runner. He’s better in space, as he lacks the power to consistently bang between the tackles. Wesley Johnson is an athletic and quick center. Though not the overpowering type, he is technically sound and takes good angles. Left guard James Carpenter (he has strong hands) and right guard Dakota Dozier (he has a great name and good power) are solid. Tackle Malcom Brown (he’s swift and powerful) has been a tone setter for the Patriots’ defense in recent weeks.
EDGE: Jets
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
New York offense: 110.8 (17th)
New England defense: 119.7 (26th)
When the Jets pass
Bryce Petty is wrapping up a three-game audition as the starting quarterback, and the returns haven’t been great. Petty has good size (6 feet 3 inches, 230 pounds) and a strong arm, but the concerns that he was a “system quarterback’’ in college look valid right now. Petty thrived in pass-happy Baylor’s spread offense, where he had time to survey the field and adjust if his first read wasn’t open. He’s finding out the hard way that that time doesn’t exist at this level. Decisions need to be made quicker. Petty has connected on just 47 percent of his passes and has yet to show the comfort and confidence he did in college. He has some good weapons in his arsenal. Robby Anderson (6-3, 190) has quickness and can jump out of the building. He lacks bulk but he’s savvy enough to avoid the big hits. Jermaine Kearse is very smart and slippery out of the slot. He runs crisp routes, is fearless across the middle, and has a flair for the dramatic catch. He’ll catch the easy ones, too. With Austin Seferian-Jenkins doubtful with rib and foot injuries, the Jets will have to rely on Eric Tomlinson (6 catches, 111 yards) and Neal Sterling (1 catch, 8 yards) at tight end. This is a considerable dropoff in talent and experience, and it severely limits Petty’s ability to distribute. Running backs Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire are accomplished receivers and provide valuable outlets for Petty.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
New York offense: 198.3 (24th)
New England defense: 254.2 (29th)
When the Patriots run
Dion Lewis has been a one-man wrecking crew over the second half of the season, and with the hits the running back corps has taken lately, he’s going to have to continue that. Rex Burkhead (knee), James White (ankle), and Mike Gillislee (knee) have been banged up, leaving the depth chart a little thin. The 5-foot-8-inch, 195-pound Lewis has a lethal first step and good vision. Despite his comparative lack of size, Lewis runs with excellent strength and toughness. He can pound the middle of a defense but also has the quicks to turn the corner and make hay down the sideline. He has the moves to break opponents’ ankles and the power to break their tackles. Lewis gets stronger as the game goes along. It’s possible that Brandon Bolden gets some work against the Jets. A consummate pro, the sixth-year veteran had been used exclusively as a special teamer until getting a couple of carries last week. Bolden is a muscular 5-11, 220 pounds, with decent speed and deceptive power. He knows this playbook and can serve as a solid runner and receiver out of the backfield. New England’s interior three is coming off one of its best performances. Guards Shaq Mason (he’s been taking no prisoners all season) and Joe Thuney (he’s athletic and wide) are peaking. David Andrews is a steadying influence in the middle. Jets linebackers Demario Davis and Darron Lee are instinctive and relentless. They make tackles from sideline to sideline.
EDGE: Patriots
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 116.1 (T-13th)
New York defense: 116.0 (19th)
When the Patriots pass
Tom Brady has thrown an interception in five straight games. Big whoop. The Patriots are 4-1 in those games, and Brady still leads the league with 4,387 passing yards and is second with 30 TD passes. He is a master at preparation and distribution, and has no shortage of weapons. Brady’s ability to quickly find and exploit mismatches is second to none. The incomparable Rob Gronkowski leads the club in receptions (69), yards (1,084), and TDs (8). He has stupendous size (6 feet 6 inches, 265 pounds) and the wingspan of a 747. Gronkowski is impossible to cover one-on-one and pretty much chews up double- and triple-teams as well. Brandin Cooks has top-notch quickness and speed. He gets manhandled some, but he’ll win some battles, too. Danny Amendola is versatile, fast, and clutch. Kenny Britt has good size (6-3, 223) and physicality. His snaps could spike in this one, with another chance to prove he belongs in the postseason plans. New York corners Buster Skrine (he’s quick, sticky, and competitive) and Morris Claiborne (he’s instinctive and fluid) play with an edge. Jets rookie safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye are rangy thumpers. They are always are near the ball. They will be one of the league’s top duos in short order.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 282.3 (first)
NY Jet defense: 237.7 (22d)
Jets’ key player: LB Demario Davis
This 6-foot-2-inch, 248-pounder rarely is mentioned among the league’s elite inside linebackers, but he should be. He reads plays quickly, reacts in a flash, and plays “kill the man with the ball’’ from sideline to sideline.
How he beats you: With tremendous instincts and rare speed for the position. Davis spots the ball, sifts through traffic, relentlessly pursues the ball, and closes with impressive speed. This is one tough, throwback player.
How to shut him down: By taking the fight to him. Davis is at his best when he’s the pursuer. Sometimes when the play is bearing down on him, he can get caught flat-footed. He’s sometimes guilty of overpursuing, and will run right by his target.
Jets’ keys to victory
1. Cold fusion: Bryce Petty needs confidence more than anything else. Give the second-year QB some simple plays early so that he can feel comfortable in a not-so-comfortable environment.
2. Cold-cocked: Ferocious defensive lineman Leonard Williams not only has to set the edge, he must get his mittens on Tom Brady and land a few body blows to slow the Patriots’ march down the field.
3. Cold stone: Safeties Marcus Maye and Jamal Adams must land some bone-chilling hits to prevent Gronk from taking over and Brady and Brandin Cooks from blowing the top off this defense.
Patriots’ keys to victory
1. Ice man: It’s no secret that Tom Brady has ice water in his veins. That’s no more evident than when it’s icy out. The QB needs to heat up quickly and then bundle up on the bench.
2. Ice-T: Dion Lewis has been churning out the hits — and the yards — over the second half of the season. Let him establish a rhythm early to melt the Jets defense. Hey, don’t hate the playa.
3. Ice Cube: Unleash James Harrison and let him show what he has left in the tank. If he can help set the edge and scare Bryce Petty a little, the Patriots will believe it was a good day.
PREDICTION: Patriots 24, Jets 8
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @globejimmcbride.
