When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver
TV, radio: CBS, WBZ-FM (98.5)
When the Broncos run
Devontae Booker has ascended to the top spot in the rotation after Ronnie Hillman was released in September and C.J. Anderson was KO’d by knee surgery. The rookie has decent size (5-11, 219) and excellent vision. He’s a one-cut, downhill runner, which is a perfect fit for Denver’s zone blocking scheme. Booker shows good burst when an opening develops and can break through arm tackles and get to the second level. He moves well laterally and can sift and slide through cutback lanes. Booker has good strength and will finish his runs by delivering a shoulder pop. Booker lacks that elusive third gear and won’t hit a lot of home runs but can wear down a defense. Justin Forsett (5-8, 195) is a feisty runner with excellent instincts and nifty jump cuts. Despite his comparative lack of size and strength, he runs like the little engine that could, finding spaces and churning out yards. He not only thinks he can, he does. Center Matt Paradis is intelligent and instinctive. He has a nice punch, quick feet, and plays with great balance. Left guard Max Garcia is strong and smart but a bit lumbering. He struggles to disengage and get to the second level. Right guard Michael Schofield is a little stiff but has excellent energy and will drive through his blocks. The Patriots have run stuffers up front in Alan Branch (he’s powerful), Malcom Brown (he’s quick), and Vincent Valentine (he’s getting better). Dont’a Hightower is intelligent, physical, and everywhere.
EDGE: Patriots
Rushing yards per game:
Denver offense: 93.8 (27th)
New England defense: 90.2 (Sixth)
When the Broncos pass
Trevor Siemian has come in and done a serviceable job running this offense. A good-sized quarterback at 6-3, 220, Siemian is a smart (he will check down) and productive (16 TDs, 7 INTs) caretaker who makes good decisions and good throws. The second-year player has solid mobility in the pocket and will adjust his arm slot as necessary. If he has to go over the top, he will. If he has to go sidearm to slide a ball into a tight window, he’ll do that, too. Siemian distributes well and takes what a defense gives him. He will sometimes force balls and occasionally and inexplicably miss wide-open targets. Emmanuel Sanders is exceptional. He’s undersized at 5-11, 180 but has a firecracker first step and is fearlessly fluid through his route, to the ball, and after the catch. Demaryius Thomas (6-3, 229) has exceptional size and speed but lacks physicality and can get sloppy. When he’s engaged, he can turn any catch into 6 points, but when he gets distracted (a solid smash often does the trick) he loses interest. Bennie Fowler will make plays but is inconsistent, and the 6-5, 210-pound Jordan Taylor is rail thin and can get knocked off his routes. Tight ends Virgil Green (solid speed) and A.J. Derby (solid hands) will show up. New England corners Malcolm Butler (he has exceptional mirror skills) and Logan Ryan (he’ll get physical) are solid. Smart safeties Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon provide great support for the corners.
EDGE: Broncos
Passing yards per game:
Denver offense: 234.2 (19th)
New England defense: 247.8 (15th)
When the Patriots run
This running back group has a much different look and feel than the one that arrived at Mile High for the AFC Championship game in January. LeGarrette Blount has become a vital cog as New England looks to achieve balance and keep some heat off Tom Brady. Blount is a bruiser with bounce. He can play the power game, slamming his big frame into defenders and driving them backward, but he can go finesse, too, because of his light feet and deceptive quickness. He’ll have his share of short gainers but if he gets his touches, he’ll get his yards. James White has been a nice change-of-pace runner who shows burst in space. He struggles between the tackles but if he gets a clean lane he’ll get to the second level and speed away. Dion Lewis is just four games into his comeback, so expect his role to increase. Lewis has a quick first step and can shake and shimmy like nobody’s business. He changes speeds smoothly and can spin away from defenders and out of tackles. Center David Andrews is smart and sound. Ditto for left guard Joe Thuney, who continues to get stronger. Right guard Shaq Mason is destroying dudes with a nifty blend of power and athleticism. Sylvester Williams is a lane-clogging nose man. He won’t rack up numbers but he will rack up bodies. Inside linebacker Todd Davis (he sticks his nose in everywhere) piles up the tackles. Safety T.J. Ward is a thunderous-hitting run supporter.
EDGE: Patriots
Rushing yards per game:
New England offense: 115.5 (Seventh)
Denver defense: 127.2 (29th)
When the Patriots pass
Tom Brady’s internal fire was burning brightly against the Ravens and don’t expect those embers to dim for this one. Brady is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and has been at his distributing best lately. Brady has unmatched presnap recognition and nobody checks down and reads through progressions better or faster. The tackles and their helpers face their biggest tests to date with elite pass rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware breathing fire off the edge. Miller’s quickness is absurd. Backpedaling defenders are often left defenseless by his first step and relentlessness. Ware is exceptionally powerful and wily. Julian Edelman gets the most attention and targets as he has an encyclopedic knowledge of the offense. He has quick feet and strong hands. Chris Hogan’s speed is no longer a secret. A versatile and tough receiver, Hogan rarely rests and so far has been indefatigable. Malcolm Mitchell has emerged as few rookie receivers have in this offense. A wiry and slippery athlete, the 6-1, 200-pound Mitchell is smart, consistent, and has sneaky-fast playing speed. Tight end Martellus Bennett brings an excellent blend of size and toughness. Bennett is a strong blocker at the line and a rumbler after the catch. James White (he’s quick) and Dion Lewis (he’s a blur) are great out of the backfield. Broncos cornerbacks Aqib Talib (he has freakishly long arms) and Chris Harris (he’s sticky) are supremely competitive.
EDGE: Broncos
Passing yards per game:
New England offense: 280.3 (Fourth)
Denver defense: 183.5 (First)
Broncos’ key player: Von Miller
Miller is simply the scariest and most destructive defensive force in the NFL. The 6-foot-3-inch, 250-pounder steamrolls blockers and collapses pockets and quarterbacks in a flash.
How he beats you: With blitzkrieg speed. Miller comes off the edge like he’s been shot out of a cannon. He can quickly get around defenders or use his power to get under their pads and under their skin. Has crazy closing burst.
How to shut him down: By wearing him down. Sounds simple but it’s easier said than done. He goes full out on every play, so making him pay with extra bodies and extra shots will slow him by the late stages.
Broncos’ keys to victory:
1. Denver Post: It’s the same old story here. Get after Tom Brady and make him uncomfortable from the get-go. If he doesn’t have the time to set, he can’t steal all the headlines.
2. Denver nuggets: There’s no need for big chunk plays. Take the small gains and put together some methodical marches to grind down the clock. That’s gold, Jerry.
3. Denver boot: Brandon McManus has a big leg and is usually money in the bank (3 of his 4 misses are from 50-plus). Take the points, not the chances, and try to build a lead.
Patriots’ keys to victory:
1. Orange aid: The offensive tackles will need help from all available bodies (Martellus Bennett, James Develin, et al) to keep Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware out of Tom Brady’s pocket.
2. Orange juice: Dion Lewis has been brought along slowly — and rightfully so. Now is the time to let him loose. A healthy dose of a healthy Lewis could leave the Broncos flat blasted.
3. Orange crush: The pass rushers have to put the squeeze on young Trevor Siemian because if he can’t get the ball to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, this offense is cooked.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 21
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com
