Patriots fans will need extra layers for their trip to Super Bowl LII Feb. 4. The Minneapolis organizing committee noted during Monday’s yearlong kickoff celebration that it’d be wise to “pack a parka.’’
Too soon?
Of course it is, but there’s plenty of reasons why the reigning champs will be the odds-on favorite to return to the big game for the 10th time in franchise history.
This team is well positioned for the future with an excellent mix of talented veterans and rising youth. Additionally, there’s plenty of cap space (an estimated $65 million) to sign key in-house free agents (Dont’a Hightower, Malcolm Butler) and some newcomers. Plus, there’s a bounty of draft picks (at least seven with compensatory picks announced in March) to further infuse the roster.
With several months to go before the players are back on the field, here is a preliminary roster breakdown by position, with end of current contract in parentheses. (UFA = unrestricted free agent; ERFA = exclusive rights free agent; RFA = restricted free agent))
QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady (2020), Jacoby Brissett (2020), Jimmy Garoppolo (2018).
A true position of strength, the Patriots are thrilled with the talent and depth here. Backing up the greatest QB in history are a pair of guys who proved this season they can lead this team to a victory.
Brady and Brissett are roster locks, with Garoppolo, entering the final year of his rookie deal, the wild card. Garoppolo was near flawless in limited playing time.
There’s always a market for quality QBs (the Bills, Bears, Browns, Jets, and 49ers will be looking) and Garoppolo’s value has never been higher. The Patriots love his skill set and work ethic and have not yet held serious discussions about moving him. Obviously that could change if an overwhelming offer was presented.
RUNNING BACK
LeGarrette Blount (UFA), Brandon Bolden (UFA), James Develin (UFA), D.J. Foster (2019), Dion Lewis (2018), James White (2018).
Lewis came back strong after recovering from multiple knee surgeries, building strength and stamina from Week 11 on. White made great strides as a third-down/receiving back and will look to build on his near-MVP performance in Houston.
Blount has had his best days in a Patriot uniform and likely would be welcomed back. At 30, he’s probably looking at another one-year deal similar to what he played under this season when he rushed for 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Bolden is a valuable special teamer and depth player who will likely return. Foster showed flashes in limited action. He’s got to stay healthy to have a chance.
It would be a stunner if Develin, the rugged fullback, didn’t return.
WIDE RECEIVER
Danny Amendola (2018), Julian Edelman (2018), Michael Floyd (UFA), Chris Hogan (2019), Malcolm Mitchell (2020).
Edelman, Hogan, and Mitchell give New England a versatile and valuable top three. Edelman is the gold standard in the slot, Hogan has big-play capabilities, and Mitchell is smart and fast.
Amendola is as gritty and clutch as they come — he had his biggest moments at the biggest times — especially in the Super Bowl. At 31, he probably will need to take a third straight pay cut to stick. Floyd has stated he’d like to stay and a one-year, “prove it’’ deal makes sense for both sides.
TIGHT ENDS
Martellus Bennett (UFA), Rob Gronkowski (2020), Matt Lengel (ERFA), Greg Scruggs (UFA).
Gronkowski is incomparable. When healthy, he’s the most dangerous pass catcher in the game. His contract is still a bargain (comparatively speaking), but he’s been hurt a ton and is rehabbing a third back surgery.
Bennett’s play helped make up for Gronkowski’s absence and he’s stated his desire to stay in New England. He’s not going to come cheap, but he won’t break the bank, either. A meet-in-the-middle, two-year deal could be something that benefits both sides here.
Scruggs was hurt shortly after signing and went to the IR. He may be offered a low-risk, short-term deal. Lengel is a hard-working blocking tight end. He’ll compete with some rookies and veteran signees for a spot.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Tackles: Marcus Cannon (2022), Cameron Fleming (RFA), Nate Solder (2018), Sebastian Vollmer (2018), LaAdrian Waddle (2018); Guards: Tre’ Jackson (2019), Ted Karras (2020), Shaq Mason (2019), Joe Thuney (2020); Center: David Andrews (2018).
The starting five (Solder, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon) made great strides and this unit should be considered a strength moving forward.
Fleming is a solid third tackle and a good run-blocking tight end. Vollmer spent the season on injured reserve and may have played his last game as a Patriot. Waddle and Karras both started the opener in Arizona and didn’t look out of place. Jackson was another IR guy, but should be back.
Andrews is smart and getting more and more surly.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Ends: Trey Flowers (2019), Geneo Grissom (2019), Chris Long (UFA), Jabaal Sheard (UFA); Tackles: Alan Branch (UFA), Malcom Brown (2019), Vincent Valentine (2020).
Branch is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and likes it here. He’s had some missteps (he was suspended by the team for a week during camp), but is beloved by his teammates. A new deal makes sense for both sides. Brown and Valentine are solid, strong, and spry.
Long was a situational pass rusher and a locker room leader. It was clear he enjoys playing here and it could be he returns on a similar short-term deal. Sheard had a slow start but performed better after sitting out the Week 11 game in San Francisco.
LINEBACKERS
Jonathan Freeny (2019), Dont’a Hightower (UFA), Shea McClellin (2019), Rob Ninkovich (2018), Elandon Roberts (2020), Kyle Van Noy (2018), Barkevious Mingo (UFA).
Hightower would appear to be the top offseason priority. He’s a physical and smart defender who can play anywhere and have an impact. He comes up big at the biggest moments. His former running mate, Jamie Collins, recently struck a big deal and now it’s Hightower’s turn.
Ninkovich is exceptional, versatile, and clutch.
McClellin, Van Noy, and Roberts thrived when their roles became more defined after Collins was shipped to Cleveland for a draft pick. Freeny spent most of the season on IR. Mingo’s biggest contributions came on special teams and he could return for shorter money.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Cornerbacks: Malcolm Butler (RFA), Justin Coleman (ERFA), Cyrus Jones (2020), Jonathan Jones (2019), Eric Rowe (2019), Logan Ryan (UFA); Safeties: Patrick Chung (2019), Nate Ebner (2018), Duron Harmon (UFA), Brandon King (ERFA), Devin McCourty (2020), Jordan Richards (2019).
There are a lot of question marks in this group with three major players due for significant pay raises. Butler and Ryan are the top corners and played at a high level all season, particularly the second half. Both could end up with No. 1 corner money, here or elsewhere. Same goes for Harmon, who is a perfect fit in this three-safety rotation.
Rowe looks like a steal after the way he performed down the stretch. Coleman could return to provide depth and one or both of the Joneses will need to step up if either Butler or Ryan or both end up elsewhere.
Ebner and King are excellent special teamers.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Ryan Allen (2019), K Stephen Gostkowski (2019), LS Joe Cardona (2019), Gunner Matthew Slater (2018).
Barring a huge surprise, there will be no changes here.
. . .
The Patriots signed eight players from their practice squad to futures contracts. Offensive linemen Chris Barker, Jamil Douglas, and Chase Farris; linebacker Trevor Bates; running back Tyler Gaffney; defensive linemen Woodrow Hamilton and Darius Kilgo; and receiver Devin Lucien will all remain in the team’s program.
It was previously reported that tight end Rob Housler signed a futures deal.
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com
