When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
TV, radio: CBS, WBZ-FM (98.5)
When the Raiders run
Rough and ready Marshawn Lynch is in his 10th season, although it seems as though he has been terrorizing defenses for 110 seasons. The 5-foot-11-inch, 215-pounder is a physical back who runs with toughness and excellent leg drive. Lynch has good instincts and can run inside with power or outside with burst. He will stick his foot in the ground quickly, fire through lanes, and destroy the first guy he comes into contact with. Gang tackling is a must with this dude, and even then he can often be spotted carrying defenders down the field for a few extra yards. Lynch has a lot of wear and tear on his body and appears to have lost a step, and though his workhorse days are behind him, he still is an effective player in smaller doses. He’s an emotional player, and if he’s not running through opponents, he’ll be running his mouth. Jalen Richard (5-8, 207) is exceptionally nimble and deceptively quick for his size; he doesn’t look elusive but he is. He runs with good balance and moves well laterally. Richard has a million moves and maintains his speed while juking and jiving his way through defenders. Center Rodney Hudson is quick, athletic, and relentless. He’s a fluid mover, pulls and traps effectively, and will maintain his block through the whistle. Right guard Gabe Jackson (6-3, 336) is strong and scrappy while left guard Kelechi Osemele (6-6, 333) delivers a powerful initial punch and will work hard to get to the second level.
EDGE: Patriots
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
Oakland offense: 87.6 (27th)
New England defense: 121.1 (26th)
When the Raiders pass
Derek Carr is a confident and fiery quarterback who is equally effective at dropping back and delivering darts or rolling out and zipping passes on the run. The 6-foot-3-inch, 214-pounder has excellent arm strength and can make every throw. Carr has good presnap recognition, reads through his progressions in a snap, and can sense pressure. He’s very tough and has a bit of a gunslinger/gambler mentality; when he’s guessing right, he can carry this offense. He’ll hit cold patches, too, and make too many risky throws. Carr is a good athlete and will extend plays and pick up valuable yards with his feet. Receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are inconsistent. Some games they look like one of the best 1-2 receiving punches in the league, while other times they look uninterested. Cooper can be a game changer. He has excellent size (6-1, 211) and is a fluid runner and receiver. He has subtle shake moves that leave defenders out of position. Crabtree (6-1, 214) also has great size and strong hands, and he uses those tools to beat press coverage. He doesn’t have a true second gear but he can be elusive after the catch. Cordarrelle Patterson can fly but his hands are suspect. Tight end Jared Cook (6-5, 254) has a nice blend of size, speed, and strength. He’s a physical mismatch for anyone but will run sloppy routes and drop catchable balls. Marshawn Lynch is an underrated receiver and will grind out yards after the catch.
EDGE: Raiders
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
Oakland offense: 237.0 (15th)
New England defense: 287.2 (32d)
When the Patriots run
This attack is building momentum and providing balance to the offense. Dion Lewis runs like a pinball. He’s quick out of the chute and will spin and bounce off the bumpers as he makes his way through a defense. The 5-foot-8-inch, 195-pounder has quickness and deceptive power. He runs low to the ground and with good balance, allowing him to absorb hits and make extra yards. Rex Burkhead has good vision and finds holes and cutback lanes consistently. Burkhead (5-10, 210) moves well laterally and gives maximum effort on every snap. He will deflect glancing blows and keep his legs driving forward. James White (5-10, 205) is another shifty runner with a low center of gravity. He has good instincts, slides to the line smoothly, and bursts through openings. He has gotten stronger and improved his ability to break tackles every season (watch out for that stiff-arm). The offensive line is another group that continues to improve weekly. Right guard Shaq Mason (a relentless road grader) and left guard Joe Thuney (a quiet masher) move bodies and open holes. Oakland nose tackle Justin Ellis (6-1, 334) has a quick first step for a man of his girth. He can stack and shed blockers and swallow running backs. Linebackers Bruce Irvin and NaVorro Bowman are athletic and instinctive. Irvin has great quickness and is relentless in pursuit. Bowman is a sideline-to-sideline terror. His hits leave welts.
EDGE: Patriots
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 107.9 (16th)
Oakland defense: 116.6 (21st)
When the Patriots pass
After spending a week at the Air Force Academy, Tom Brady brings his aerial assault south of the border. Brady has been on a superb run the last five weeks and for the third straight game faces a team with a vicious pass rush. Tackles Nate Solder and LaAdrian Waddle have been terrific in protection, and another command performance will be needed. Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack is one of the most disruptive forces in the game. Possessing a ridiculous blend of quickness and power, Mack gets off the line like lightning before delivering thunderous hits to the quarterback. He commands extra attention. Brady’s receiving corps has it all — deep threats, intermediate runners, and guys who excel in the dink-and-dunk game. Brandin Cooks has blistering speed and runs great routes. Phillip Dorsett is another fast guy still getting up to full speed in this offense. Danny Amendola can run every route but specializes in the third-down clutch variety. The tight end group is scary — for defenders. Rob Gronkowski is the gold standard. He gets open quickly, can run after the catch, and blocks like a tackle. Martellus Bennett can do it all too, but his snaps will be limited. Dwayne Allen is a terrific blocker who may be turning the corner as a receiver. There’s also the dynamic backfield trio of James White, Rex Burkhead, and Dion Lewis. All are great in space, have sure hands, and are willing blockers when it comes to blitz pickup.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 301.6 (first)
Oakland defense: 244.6 (22d)
Raiders key player: QB Derek Carr
A gutsy gambler in the mold of Brett Favre, the four-year veteran can be very streaky. When he’s hot, every decision is right and every throw is perfect. When he’s not, bad plays are compounded and this offense struggles.
How he beats you: With his arm and his legs. Carr has a rapid release and a strong enough arm to make every throw. He has great athleticism and can extend plays by moving the pocket and chucking it on the run, or he can tuck it and go.
How to shut him down: By disguising your coverages until the last millisecond. Carr has decent presnap recognition and can effectively check out of bad looks — but not if it’s something he hasn’t seen before. Keep this gunslinger guessing.
Raiders’ keys to victory
1. Mexican hat dance — Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, and that mammoth line must establish a ground game to keep this offense balanced and take some pressure off Derek Carr.
2. Three amigos — Win the turnover battle. Safeties Reggie Nelson, Karl Joseph, and Obi Melifonwu have to be ballhawks, while helping out raw corners David Amerson and T.J. Carrie.
3. Hasta luego — Cordarrelle Peterson (kickoffs) and Jalen Richard (punts) are explosive return men. They must make an impact by getting to the end zone or at least shortening the journey there.
Patriots’ keys to victory
1. Fly Falcons fly: Speedy receivers Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett could hit top speed early and often against a suspect secondary that has had its share of lapses.
2. Triple option: Running backs Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and James White can share the load on the ground and keep the Oakland pass rush (Khalil Mack, specifically) in check.
3. Safety squadron: The valuable and versatile trio of Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon can mix up the looks and help prevent the Raiders from blowing the top off the defense.
PREDICTION: Patriots 29, Raiders 18
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @globejimmcbride.
