Last year, after he lost the GOP primary, John Kasich could not have been more clear about his intentions unless he said it outright: The Ohio governor was looking at another run for the White House.
Through the rest of 2016, Kasich steered clear of Donald Trump. When the Republican National Convention was in his home state, he didn’t attend the main event but made other appearances across Ohio. Last fall he visited New Hampshire, the first presidential primary state, to campaign for local candidates.
Kasich’s aides had prepared a major speech for him to give in the days after the presidential election, which most Republicans thought Trump would lose. That speech was supposed to launch his 2020 campaign.
But Trump won. Kasich canceled his post-election speech. And now it’s hard to say what Kasich is doing, exactly.
“No, no, no,’’ Kasich told CNN last weekend, when he was asked whether he was running for president again. But then he added, “You don’t close the door on anything.’’
Kasich’s actions suggest something else. His allies have launched a new national political organization. He has been traveling the world to meet with international leaders. He has boosted his national profile in interviews in which he challenges Trump. In April he will release a book and travel, again, to New Hampshire, where he finished second in the 2016 presidential primary.
Bruce Berke, a New Hampshire lobbyist and longtime friend of Kasich who is organizing the April 27 visit, said that so far the governor’s stop is all about “promoting his book.’’
“There have been a lot of requests for events, but there is only one event. It is just about promoting his book,’’ Berke said. “At this point, I think it would take something truly extraordinary to prompt him to run again.’’
With approval ratings dipping below 40 percent, Trump could be vulnerable to a reelection challenge — although much could happen before the 2020 contest. What’s more, Trump is still favored by 80 percent of Republicans, surveys show. If Kasich challenged the president, he would be running to Trump’s political left — a tough spot for any Republican primary candidate.
Back home in Ohio, Kasich is term-limited out of the governorship in 2018. Meanwhile he’s struggling for control of the state’s Republican Party. Throughout the general election, there was tension between the Ohio GOP and Trump’s campaign.
After the election, Trump personally called Ohio Republicans, urging them to oust Kasich’s state party chairman and install a new leader more favorable to the incoming president. Trump’s choice won.
This victory complicates — if not outright negates — Kasich’s ability to anoint a successor to the governor’s office. There is already a growing Republican primary field.
“Nobody here in Ohio has any clue what he is going to do next,’’ said Paul Beck, a political science professor emeritus at The Ohio State University. “He has given absolutely no signals as to what he wants to do.’’
More concerning for Kasich’s presidential aspirations — if they still exist — is the political reality in Ohio.
“Should Kasich challenge Trump for reelection, I don’t think the governor would even win the Ohio primary,’’ Beck said.
But even if Kasich lost the presidential primary (again), he could have an impact on the race. Every one-term president in modern history who had a primary challenger in his reelection eventually lost, including former presidents George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford.
There are clues, even in his book, that Kasich still wants to be involved in the national political conversation. The title, “Two Paths: America Divided or United,’’ comes from a speech of the same name that Kasich delivered in the closing days of his 2016 campaign.
The book will set up Kasich as the chief Republican critic if Trump ever tanks with mainstream Republicans. This is especially true since Mitt Romney has kept quiet since interviewing to be Trump’s secretary of state.
“We cannot allow exclusion to take the place of inclusion,’’ Kasich wrote in the book excerpt released in advance of publication. “We cannot accept distorted truths and half-baked notions simply because they make us feel good — or, because they make us forget for a moment how we really feel. We must hold fast to our principles as a society, because without them we’re lost.’’
Then again, maybe Kasich said it best to CNN in his seemingly convoluted answer: He isn’t planning to run for president again, but he isn’t ruling it out, either.
When asked about 2020, Berke, who last talked to Kasich a few weeks ago, replied: “I don’t think any of us can predict what the next four years are going to look like.’’
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell.