Print      
Favorite role suits ‘Chrome’
By Joe Sullivan
Globe Staff

At one time, I thought California Chrome was an accidental winner of the Kentucky Derby, undeserving of having a classic victory on his resume. I thought he should be brought home to the West Coast to run in races for California breds exclusively instead of facing top level competition.

The key word in that paragraph is was. For a horse player, you have to adapt or be doomed to failure. So I’ve adapted. California Chrome is the best horse in the country and a deserving favorite in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita. Chrome has proven his worth as a 5-year-old by winning The Dubai World Cup and four other stakes races in California in 2016. Now he gets to finish the year on basically his home court, a race track where he’s won five of eight times and only finished out of the money once.

The key will be trying to make money while Chrome is winning the Classic at short odds. You need to use him on the end of multiple-race bets or on top in single race exotics.

That being said, there is money to be made in the two days of the Breeders’ Cup with great horses, full fields, and some juicy odds.

Here are some selections and analysis of the 13 races (in chronological order). Remember it’s not just win, place, show anymore. I’ll be involved in all kinds of multiple bets trying to play each race or series of races in the manner that will reward me best.

Friday

Juvenile Turf: 1. Intelligence Cross, 2. Ticonderoga, 3. Good Samaritan

Always look to the Europeans first in grass races; Intelligence Cross has raced against some of the best on the continent.

Dirt Mile: 1. Dortmund, 2. Tamarkuz, 3. Gun Runner

Dortmund looks like a sure winner; he’s ducking Chrome by running in this race.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: 1. Happy Mesa, 2. Roly Poly, 3. New Money Honey.

Not a Euro but trained by an Englishman, Graham Motion. Had an excuse (lost whip) in only loss.

Distaff: 1. Beholder, 2. Curalina, 3. Stellar Wind.

This is the most interesting race with undefeated Songbird running against older horses for the first time, including future Hall of Famer Beholder (who has lost her last two races to Stellar Wind). Beholder was ridden overconfidently by Gary Stevens; he won’t this time. Songbird is 11 for 11 but her speed figures are below her elders and she’s going to be heavily favored.

Saturday

Juvenile Fillies: 1. American Gal, 2. With Honors, 3. Noted and Quoted.

She just won 13 days ago; no trainer runs a horse that soon after the last race but this is Bob Baffert acting like he’s Hall of Famer Woody Stevens, who once won the Met Mile and Belmont Stakes in the same week with Conquistador Cielo.

Filly & Mare Turf: 1. Queen’s Trust, 2. Seventh Heaven, 3. Lady Eli.

Podcasts are the latest and greatest; On one I heard that Cheveley Park Stud of England doesn’t like running in the Breeders’ Cup but here they are with Queen’s Trust, who is also trained (Sir Michael Stoute) and ridden (Frankie Dettori) by two of the best in Europe. They didn’t come for the weather.

Sprint: 1. A.P. Indian, 2. Defong, 3. Limousine Liberal.

My original selection, Lord Nelson, scratched. A.P. Indian has been incredibly consistent; just needs to repeat his recent efforts.

Turf Sprint: 1. Obviously, 2. Om, 3. Washington DC

I will take a 1-2 California, home-team exacta on the wild ride down the hill at 6½ furlongs. Obviously shortens up after four unsuccessful tries at the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Juvenile: 1. Not This Time, 2. Gormley, 3. Syndergaard.

I want to go on the record now that Not This Time is my 2017 Kentucky Derby horse. This is the first step toward that.

Turf: 1. Flintshire, 2. Found, 3. Ulysses.

An ex-European, so to speak (four races in the US). I firmly believe in this selection and will put a bunch of Euros underneath him in exactas.

Filly and Mare Sprint: 1. Irish Jasper, 2. Paola Queen, 3. Paulassilverlining

Only her fourth start of the year, expecting her to improve and pay off handsomely.

Mile: 1. Limato, 2. Alice Springs, 3. Spectre

All Euros and not Tepin, the defending champion from the US who won in England this summer. I think she’s over the top.

Classic: 1. California Chrome, 2. Arrogate, 3. Frosted.

A logical finish and no great recommendations. Arrogate is worth considering because if he repeats his effort in the Travers he will win. In the end, Chrome continues his domination and will be named Horse of the Year.

Breeders’ Cup at a glance

When/where: Friday (4 races) and Saturday (9 races), Santa Anita Park

TV: Friday 5-8 p.m., NBCSN; Saturday 2:30-8 p.m., NBCSN; and 8-9 p.m., NBC.

Entries: View lineups here

Joe Sullivan can be reached at joseph.sullivan@globe.com