In the closing days of the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump may have the FBI on his side, but he still doesn’t have the Electoral College.
So while many Republican strategists and Trump supporters have been confused and frustrated that their candidate seems to be making illogical decisions to visit states that haven’t voted Republican in decades, there is some logic to it.
On Sunday, Trump was in New Mexico, which once was a presidential battleground state, but where Barack Obama won twice by double digits. Then it was off to Michigan, a place that might have been interesting for Trump, given his trade message, but Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has had a consistent lead there since the summer. Up next was a return trip to Pennsylvania, where the race is tighter, but local Republicans are dubious. And then, Wisconsin, where no Republican presidential candidate has won since 1984.
Presidential battlegrounds these states are not. To see where the contest is really tight, look at Clinton’s schedule: Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. (Though she also went on the offense Wednesday in Arizona, a traditionally Republican state where polls show her tied.)
Trump may not be fantasizing about a landslide win of Democratic states, but rather staring at the cold, hard numbers of the Electoral College. His advisers say the states he is visiting this week are closer than people think. The truth is, he has to win one of them if he is going to win the whole shebang.
The most recent Electoral College tally as compiled by CNN suggests that Trump has 179 votes and Clinton has 272, two more than she needs to win the presidency. In the CNN map, there are six tossup states (Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona) representing 87 electoral votes. So even if Trump pulls off a stunning sweep of all six tossup states next week, he will still have only 266 electoral votes.
The easiest path then is to simply flip New Hampshire from Democrat to Republican and grab its four electoral votes — so there is a reason Trump has been to the Granite State six times in the past seven weeks. He will be in Atkinson, N.H., on Friday and plans to return again Monday evening for a rally in Manchester. Yet he has never had a significant lead in a general election poll there.
A Trump sweep of six tossup states and New Hampshire seems highly unlikely, since neither political party is looking at a landslide. Instead, if Trump could flip an even bigger Democratic-leaning state, like Michigan or Pennsylvania — with more electoral votes — the path to 270 gets more plausible.
And there are signs that Clinton is accepting the premise about Trump being on offense. She is scheduled to be in Michigan herself on Friday. Further, her super PAC is now back up with television ads in Colorado.
Candidates of all types — dog catcher to president — have two limited resources: the candidate’s time and money.
If the election results show that Trump barely lost Florida or North Carolina, some will point to Trump’s schedule this week and suggest he didn’t spend his limited time well. However, as the math suggests, it wouldn’t matter if Trump was in Florida or North Carolina and won there unless he also wins somewhere else Republican candidates don’t typically venture in the final week.
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his daily e-mail update on the 2016 campaign at bostonglobe.com/groundgame.
